January 30, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Philadelphia Flyers center Brayden Schenn (10) moves the puck against the defense of Anaheim Ducks defenseman Cam Fowler (4) and defenseman Ben Lovejoy (6) during the third period at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Brayden Schenn: Realistic Expectations Part 2

Prior to the start of the Flyers 2013/14 season I wrote an article detailing my expectations of Brayden Schenn. You can see what I wrote in that article here.

Having now entered the Olympic break I wanted to see how Brayden has progressed so far this season. The hope was that he would average about 0.70 point per game which would put him on a career path similar to that of Evander Kane. That sort of progress didn’t seem out of the realm of possibility but as you’ll see below, Brayden’s 3rd season hasn’t panned out quite like I had envisioned.

Having played 59 games so far, Brayden Schenn has tallied 15 goals to go along with 17 assists for a total of 32 points. That equates to a 0.54 point per game production that would put him right in line with his ppg from last year (0.55 ppg). Not exactly the kind of progression I was hoping from our 3rd year forward.

Now I’m going to include a metric that I didn’t explore in my first article, Fenwick.

Fenwick is a shot attempt metric and includes all shots and shots that missed the net but not shots that were blocked. It’s a subtle possession metric as well in that if a player posts a positive Fenwick it implies that player was able to keep puck possession. More shots for than against implies an ability to keep possession in order to create scoring chances.

So with that, the great site Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com has a Fenwick statistic FF20. It’s defined as the Fenwick For per every 20 minutes of ice time.

Brayden Schenn ranks 9th on the Flyers with a FF20 of 12.857 when comparing him to the 10 other Flyers forwards with at least 500 minutes of ice time. The Flyer dead last in this statistic? Brayden’s lines mate Vincent Lecavalier with a FF20 of 12.580. In addition to their FF20, both players rank 7th and 10th respectively in FA20.

I understand however that shot metrics are not totally indicative of a player’s performance. One has to take into account their teammates both on their forward line and the defensive pairing.  What Fenwick does so well  though is coincide with goals over time. This article from NHL Numbers will show you that correlation.

After Brayden’s blistering start that seemed like it would fulfill my best case scenario prediction, he has regressed to his production from his previous season. To clarify, this isn’t an article claiming that Brayden Schenn is a bad player. His intangibles still impress me. He works hard on the fore-check, skates hard, and provides a physical presence.  I just wanted to see an improvement offensively over his play from last season. He still has a chance to prove me right after the NHL players return from their Olympic break. Let’s hope he does.

As always, please send all your hate mail to bear[dot]canney[at]gmail[dot]com and your angry tweets to @BcanneyBSB.

Stats provided by Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com

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Tags: Brayden Shenn Fenwick Hockey NHL Philadelphi Flyers Shot Metrics

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