The Philadelphia Flyers are finally starting to grab leads early in games, but are throwing away games by swooning once they have the lead
Early in the season, the Philadelphia Flyers’ biggest problem was bad starts. In October and November, the Flyers were 29th in the league in first period shot differential, and 28th in first period goal percentage. The thinking at the time was if the Flyers could just improve their starts, they’d be winning many more games.
The Flyers appear to have recently overcome that issue. Since January 1 of this year, the Flyers are 8th in first period shot differential, and are FIRST in goal percentage. Everybody knows that in today’s NHL playing with the lead is a huge advantage, but the Flyers are proving they aren’t very adept at managing the game from such a position.
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This issue really came to the fore this weekend. In key games against quality opponents, the Flyers blew leads. The result was that the Flyers earned only 1 point on the weekend. While this problem has recently become very noticeable, it’s probably not a new issue.
The Flyers are a pretty average possession team. The Flyers have an overall 5v5 Corsi percentage of 49.7%, squarely in the middle of the league at 17th. Limit the situation to playing with the lead, and their possession drops disturbingly quickly.
All NHL teams play more conservatively with the lead. Specifically, standing at 17th in league Corsi percentage when playing with the lead would put you 45.1%. The Flyers, however, drop their Corsi to 40.9% with the lead, dropping them down to 25th in the league.
Anyway you look at it, they swoon when protecting a lead. When leading by 1 goal, the Flyers have a Corsi of 42.6%, 23rd in the league. When leading by 1 goal in the third period, the Flyers have a Corsi of 36.6%, 26th in the league.
Those kind of numbers indicate a broad, systemic issue. Indeed, a peek at individual player stats provide little guidance.
In my opinion, rather than question the players on the roster, the problem is what players are lacking from the roster. One thing this team lacks from previous Flyers teams are players that can control the game, or otherwise calm things down.
Surely the breakout season Sean Couturier is has been a big positive for the Flyers, in both the short and long term. With Couturier being promoted to second line duty, however, it has left a hole behind him. The Flyers are slogging through this season without a dependable third line. Couturier is one of the few players whose possession numbers don’t fall off a cliff when playing with the lead, but he’s effectively being asked to do less to protect the lead in second line duty.
On the back end, the Flyers still have not replaced the roles played by Kimmon Timonen and Chris Pronger in the past. Those guys were veteran defensive centerpieces, who not only shadowed the best opposition players, but brought a calming influence to the game in general. Whatever you wish to say about Shayne Gostisbehere, Michael Del Zotto, Mark Streit or Nick Schultz, they can’t fill those shoes.
There are no easy answers to this issue of game control and management that plagues the Philadelphia Flyers. The personnel just isn’t there. Furthermore, the Flyers have such a promising group of young defensemen coming up, but this is a difficult role for young players to fill. Addressing this issue will be a long term project for Dave Hakstol and Ron Hextall, but it is one any team that wishes to be a contender must master.