http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2V7_VzVaWk

Common theme: Canada celebrates, Russia left for dead

Turn your head and Nabokov.  Now I know why San Jose chokes in the playoffs year in and year out.  When it comes to big games, Evgeni Nabokov is just plain terrible. In the two game’s he’d played, he was awesome. You couldn’t ask for anything more from him. In this game, all you could ask of him was to leave early. But no, the stubborn, and unprepared, Russian coach didn’t make any changes when there was still a chance.  I don’t care how early it was in the game, but a 2-0 deficit and a team playing nonchalantly needed drastic change. They didn’t get it until it was too late.

I don’t know what the Russians were thinking when they came up with their strategy.  They had way, way too much room between their forwards and their defensemen on breakouts.  Instead of short passes to work the play up, they tried the home run pass, almost every time.  They assumed that they could take advantage of their speed to make Canada pay.  Instead, they looked like a bunch of cherry pickers.  When they did get entry into the zone, the reverted to their scaredy cat style of ripping shots from far away.  I blame the coach completely for this loss.  He picked the team, he didn’t make adjustments, he didn’t play with his lines to find the right formula, and he didn’t have a good game plan.

Something I haven’t really talked about is his line combos.  He had 6 NHL forwards, and 6 KHL guys.  For whatever reason, he didn’t mix up the players.  There were 2 NHL lines, and 2 KHL lines. Why? Radulov and Morozov looked decent, but the rest of the KHL guys were pretty much ghosts.  Why not get them going by putting them with NHL players.  There’s plenty of talent to go around, so try some new things.  Kovalchuk has played his entire career pretty much on his own, and he’s done more than fine.  Maybe separating him from Datsyuk and Malkin would yield better results.  All three of them like the puck, so maybe it’s better to put them with people that don’t need to dominate possession.

On the flip side, Canada came to play.  They hit, they supported each other, and they never let up until it was easily in hand.  They embarrassed one of the best goalies in the world, and made a pre-tournament favorite look like a team that was just happy to be at the Olympics. Luongo played awesome, and if he keeps it up, this team will easily win gold.  I don’t see how anyone else can beat them.  They’re loaded at every spot, and they’re finally playing like it. An upset is possible, but I think unlikely. These guys are just too smart, to talented to lose to anyone when they play like they did their past two games.  We can all thank the weak-ass Germans for giving Canada the confidence boost that they lacked coming out of the round robin. At least Richards and Pronger might come back in a good mood for the playoff stretch.

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Two biggest countries, two biggest hockey powers: Collision Imminent

Through a series of unfortunate events, Canada meets Russia a few rounds too early. As I’ve said before, there are other worthy teams that have more than a legitimate chance.  However, these two feature the most stars, and would make for the best final matchup.  Instead, each team was upset in the round robin, and the seeding system has paired them together a bit early.  Now, only one will have a chance for any medal. Both fanbases are cautiously optimistic, because each teams seems to have clicked after the last game that each played. However, the talent level is so high on both sides that if one side does not play extremely well, they’ll get torched.

I’ve seen a few lists on the top 5 reasons why either team will win.  First, I’ll review some of the ridiculous and meaningless factors, and then the important ones.

Meaningless

• History: What the hell do the World Championships or previous Olympic match-ups have to do with this? One of the most overrated rated stats in sports are winning streaks that span years.  Players, rules, philosophies, coaches all change. A win streak spanning 3 years is nice, but it has ZERO bearing on the next game.
• Fatigue: These players play back to back games their entire lives.  It’s not football, where 6 days between games and 5 games is a big deal.  Also, Canada didn’t exactly have to try hard against Germany.  If anything, they gained confidence and energy, and managed to get some familiarity among themselves.
• Motivation: Every player has a reason to be here.  Do you really think Canada wants it more because they’re at home? Of course not! Every player is on this team today becuase they have loved hockey their whole loves, and have put in some serious dedication to the sport.  They are the best of the best, and they want to win regardless of the circumstances.  Whether it seems like it or not, almost very pro athlete is a completely different breed from the rest of us, and they really do care. Four years from now, Canada will be just as hungry for gold as they are right now. Russia wants it just as badly now, because they haven’t won in 18 years, and a victory on Canadian soil would be sweet.
• Ovechkin-Crosby match-up: In the NHL, these guys have a much higher impact on their teams than they do in the Olympics. Are they the best players on their respective teams? Sure. However, there’s plenty of talent and leadership to go around on each squad.  I think this angle is significantly overplayed by the media, but I think it’s mostly because of marketing. For casual fans, this is important. But hockey fans must realize that each team is pretty lethal even if these guys don’t have a good game. Neither team relies solely on them to win.

Meaningful

• Goalies: Each offense seems to be clicking, and each defense seems just ok.  Thus, if either goalie has a poor game, he can’t expect too much help. Russia’s speed is too much for Canada to defend, and Canada is a lot more physical than anyone Russia had to defend.
• Puck Possession: Both teams have dominated possession and shot totals in each of their games.  Their wins have come from constant pressure and keeping the puck in the offensive zone.  Both teams are well suited for a quick transition game, but this isn’t something that they’ve had to do a lot of so far. Both teams have done a great job of stealing pucks before their opposition can get on the break, although I don’t think that will happen as much tonight.
• Shot selection: Each team has been a lot more successful when they’ve set up in front, and shoot from closer in. Perimeter shooting is not going to cut it. Shot totals are inflated because of this style of play. Both teams need to shoot from higher percentage area’s, mainly from the slot.
• Referee’s: I really hope these zebra’s are a non-factor tonight.  They can avoid the controversy if they stick to one thing: less is more.  Let the players play, don’t call the little chippy plays. I can’t imagine a worse scenario than a weak penalty call late in the third period of a 3-3 game. If something is questionable, and it doesn’t directly impact a great offensive opportunity, let it go. Someone tripped behind their own net? Let it go. Little bit of clutch and grab in the corners? Let it go. So far, most of the officiating has been pretty good, and I want to see that trend continue.

Mike Richards – A standout player on the Flyers and in the NHL overall, but not on this national team.  Richards had

Richards

one goal in the first game, and has registered 0 points since then.  He hasn’t gotten a ton of minutes, and a quick experiment playing with Crosby yielded no results.  As the level of competition for Canada got tougher, the entire team struggled, so it’s not just him.  However, like everyone else there, he was selected for a reason.  While he’s more than capable of being a scorer, that’s not his role here.  He does not have to do everything.  His value comes in defense, toughness, and leadership.  He alone has a strong enough personality to get his team going, and I really hope for his personal sake that he can.  I don’t want a defeated and confidence-shaken captain returning after this tournament.

Chris Pronger – He’s on the ice during all facets of the game, and I hear his name called a lot.  I’ve seen flashes of good

Pronger

play from him in all three zones.  However, this is an underachieving Canada team(so far), so I can’t praise him too much.  As of now, he only has 1 assit after the preliminary round.  He’s one of the older guys, and he too needs to step things up.  He’s a big guy, with decent speed, and excellent hockey IQ. I think he’ll be more effective at the tournament, and for the Flyers, if he starts hitting a little harder.  He seems to be playing like a smaller guy, settling for rubbing people off the puck, using his positioning and stickwork to create turnovers.  Most of the time that’s fine, but once in a while you need to make statement. The entire Canadian squad isn’t just going to wake up from line changes and getting yelled at by Coach Babcock.  The players have to do it themselves, and Prongs is the perfect guy to do it.

Kimmo Timonen – So far Finland has played as everyone expected to, and the results show it.  Kimmo scored a

Timonen

pair of powerplay goals in the 5-0 destruction of Germany.  Those goals are good enough to tie him for the team lead.  Suprisingly, he doesn’t have any assists. I missed the first two Finland games, and can only judge him on the third.  He looks just as reliable as usual.  He positions himself perfectly, and times his hits just right so he can get the puck away from people.  If his team can go deep, and he can provide a little more offensive spark, he can make a case for the tournament allstar line-up.

Oskars Bartulis – He’s a respectable -2 on a team that’s been outscored 19-4 in three games.  And it’s not for a lack of

Bartulis

playing time, as he stands third on the team in that category.  I haven’t really focused on Team Latvia either, so I haven’t made note of how he has played.  Let’s just hope that the experience of playing with and against the best players in the world can help him when he gets back to the Flyers

.

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What a great Sunday this should be! We have three straight blockbuster games lined up.  Russia-Czech Republic, USA-Canada, and Finland-Sweden.

Game 1:

Jaromir Jagr has been playing out of his mind, and proving on almost every shift that he left the NHL because he wanted to, not because he couldn’t play.  He’s just as strong, and just as smart as always.  He remains a threat to take over any game.  However, Russia contains more than enough firepower to counteract that.  But they’ll have to get through the left wing lock first.  The Czechs used it to perfection in the ‘98 gold medal game to neutralize Bure and Federov, amongst other stars.  Not too shabby.  The system was invented by the Swedes to combat the Soviets in the 70’s, but the Czechs have done an excellent job of adopting it.  Obviously, the line-ups are different, but the systems remain the same.  Russia has to be steaming mad after the Slovakia loss, and I don’t think they’ll be held to only one goal. If Russia wins in regulation, they win the group. An overtime/shootout win, or any loss, gives the Czechs the group. Furthermore, a loss completely eliminates Russia, and that’s a scary thought.  These countries have had serious animosity since 1968, mostly from the Czech side, for obvious reasons. (If you don’t know what I’m talking about, read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prague_Spring#Invasion).  These games are always intense, tight, and entertaining.

Game 2:

These teams are completely made up of NHL players, and features more matchups between teammates  than any other game. In addition, an article from NHL.com says that Richards will be playing on Crosby’s line. I’m actually interested to see what Ritchie will look like when he plays on a line with someone that can feed him the puck. He’s never had anyone like that on the Flyers play with him before, and I hope Holmgren is paying close attention. More importantly, this game is a huge litmus test for both squads.  Is Canada really a favorite, or is USA highly underrated?  So far, my answers would be no and no. I do think the Americans have more than just a chance to win though.  As I wrote in my last post, Canada does not look hungry. Sure they’ve won, but they didn’t look like a team of world class players.  Meanwhile, USA is winning with grit, and mixing that with excellent goaltending is always a recipe for success.  The only reason I feel they’re not underrated is because so far, this is exactly what I expected of them. I still think Sweden, Finland, Canada, and Russia are better.

Game 3:

The last game of the days is probably between the biggest rivals.  Only a Canada-Russia match-up would surpass this.  This is a rematch of the last gold medal game, and promises to be intense.  These countries share a border and get along just fine.  When it comes to sports, they hate each other.  The countries have an extensive and historic rivalry in many different events.  Both teams have superstars, incredible goalies, depth, and defense.  Whoever wins this game, gets the group and a bye.  Hockey lives because if rivalries like this, and with both teams playing at a high level, this has the makings of a great game.  Here’s a preview article that was written prior to the ‘06 gold medal game that does a nice job of describing the rivalry: http://www.cbc.ca/olympics/story/2006/02/25/sweden-finland060225.html.

The only result that matters is a Russia win.  This ensures that every team playing today still has an opportunity to get the gold. With all due respect to Slovakia, they’re not the team that most hockey fans want to see. The other two games are still important for determining seedings and byes, but at least they’re all ensured an opportunity to advanced.  No matter what, we’re in for some good hockey.

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