Philadelphia Flyers: 2015-16 Staff Predictions

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It is almost here. Hockey season is just around the corner. Pictures of players beginning voluntary on-ice workouts with their teammates are beginning to surface, and fans all around the country are getting all their best NHL gear out of the closet to get ready to be worn for the preseason. Its time to get excited for some Flyers hockey.

Most of the staff here at Broad Street Buzz have all written our predictions for the Flyers in the upcoming season. I have compiled all of them right here for you to check out. As you may notice, some are optimistic outlooks while others are a little more conservative.

I have included a line of links at the bottom of every prediction, so feel free to skip around to read whichever staff writer you wish.

Denise Mroz – Marc Naples – Julianne Prestis – Gus Richardson – Ryan Walsh

Next: Denise Mroz's Prediction

Denise Mroz

With the anticipation of a new hockey season right around the corner, it’s that time of the year to start speculating how teams will fare. Where the Philadelphia Flyers will end up this season is really anyone’s guess. The recent past has been full of ups and downs in Philadelphia. Coaching and management changes leave all with an unsteady assurance. With General Manager, Ron Hextall, at the helm, and head coach, Dave Hakstol, put in place a new consistency may appear.

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Dave Hakstol is new to the NHL. He was hired upon his philosophy of working with young players. His motto is “Accountability. Speed. Structure. Transition.” He carried his team at North Dakota University to the NCAA Frozen Four seven times. He is the first head coach to go from NCAA to the NHL since 1982. With such acclaim, much faith lies in his abilities to carry Philadelphia to success. High expectations are hoping to be met.

Are the Philadelphia Flyers a team to make the playoffs? Definitely. Fans can count on that. Will it be an easy ride? The season might start off unsteady, like usual, as players adapt to a new system, gain trust, and build confidence. But, if consistency is obtained, success will follow.

If Hakstol delivers what fans expect; here is how the Flyers might rank this season.

Playoffs here we come!

Eastern Conference Rankings

Washington Capitals
Tampa Bay Lightning
New York Rangers
Detroit Red Wings
New York Islanders
Pittsburgh Penguins
Philadelphia Flyers
Florida Panthers

Marc Naples – Julianne Prestis – Gus Richardson – Ryan Walsh

Next: Marc Naples' Prediction

Mark Naples

Preseason camp hasn’t even started yet, but it’s about time to start shaping up the Philadelphia Flyers’ prospects for this season. Their roster is unlikely to change before opening day, and I believe the key questions for the 2015-16 are already apparent.

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The Flyers’ Performance the Last Two Seasons

The Flyers roster has not changed that much the last few seasons. There are good reasons for that. It is primarily because Hextall is not seeking quick fixes, and is waiting for young players to arrive. Given this approach, dramatically different results from the past two seasons should not be expected.

The 2013-14 Flyers were a playoff team, but not a real threat for the Cup. They excelled at special teams, but didn’t score very much at even strength and were underwater on 5v5 goal differential.

Without Kimmo Timonen, among other factors, the Flyers penalty kill collapsed last season. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

The following season, 2014-15, the Flyers lineup didn’t see many changes. The only substantial changes were the subtraction of Kimmo Timonen, and swapping Scott Hartnell for RJ Umberger. Despite these modest changes, the results on the ice significantly suffered.

In 2014-15, the Philadelphia Flyers power play was again excellent, ranking third in the NHL. On the other hand, the penalty kill collapsed, ranking near or at the bottom of the league all season. Lastly, the Flyers scored very few goals at 5v5 (24th in league), although they were tight defensively so they broke about even for 5v5 overall.

Three Key Factors for This Season

In my opinion, there are three main factors which will make or break the Flyers season. First, the biggest offseason change in terms of player personnel was the addition of Sam Gagner. As I have previously written, there is a reasonable chance that Gagner will be a productive player in Philadelphia. He should help the Flyers scoring depth.

Matt Read and RJ Umberger must bounce back from very disappointing seasons. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

The second factor is scoring depth improving internally. The Flyers suffered a major scoring drop-off last season from Matt Read and RJ Umberger. Read has always been a reliable 20-goal-man for the Flyers, but last season he lagged to only eight goals. RJ Umberger also suffered through a very anonymous season, scoring only nine goals. This was a big hit from Scott Hartnell, who usually scored 20 or 30 goals for the Flyers. That’s a lot of goals disappearing from the stat sheet, but both Read and Umberger may have been playing hurt for large parts of last season. Whatever the reason for the swoon, how much either Umberger and Read bounce back will play a large part in the Flyers success in 2015-16.

The third key factor for this season is the penalty kill. Only basement dwellers, Arizona, Edmonton and Buffalo had worse penalty kills last season. A repeat performance will doom the Flyers to another early spring vacation.

This dramatic drop-off was somewhat puzzling, as the Flyers penalty kill was 5th and 7th in the league the previous two seasons, respectively. Surely the mere absence of Kimmo Timonen couldn’t account for a drop in the league standings by 20 places. At this point I can’t put my finger on what went wrong there, nor make a specific prescription on what to do differently, but the Philadelphia Flyers simply must find a way to get back into at least the top 20 on the penalty kill.

Putting it all Together

Pervading over all these on-ice factors is the debut of Dave Hakstol behind the bench. He’s a wild card, having never coached professional hockey before. It would be speculation on my part to say what strengths and weaknesses he will as an NHL coach. One constant is the Flyers assistant coaching staff, who directly run the special teams.

Prediction: Gagner will finish third on the team in scoring in 2015-16. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Running over all these factors together, I will make a few predictions regarding the above factors:

Sam Gagner will be the third leading scorer on the team, behind Giroux and Voracek with ~55 points.
Umberger and Read will score ~30 goals combined. An improvement from their 17 last season, but distinctly short of either of them being 20 goal scorers individually.
The penalty kill will be top-20 but not much more.

For me, this formula adds up to a bubble playoff team. I’m not sure if the Philadelphia Flyers will make the playoffs, but if they’re not contending for a spot down to the wire I will be disappointed.

Denise Mroz – Julianne Prestis – Gus Richardson – Ryan Walsh

Next: Julianne Prestis' Prediction

Julianne Prestis

After another great offseason by GM Ron Hextall, the future of the Flyers organization finally seems to be taking shape. He unloaded dead weight in Nicklas Grossmann and Zac Rinaldo and brought in elite young talent at the draft with the likes of Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny.

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However, the rest of the Eastern Conference seems to have followed suit, and it has become a much scarier place in the last few months.

While it’s true the Pens haven’t given the Flyers much to worry about in recent years, the addition of star winger Phil Kessel instantly makes any team a much more viable threat. However, Pittsburgh seems to be in win-now mode. They traded almost all of their decent prospects in the Kessel deal and don’t really have the cap space to do much of anything. The Penguins may get the upper hand on Philly this year, but I don’t expect that to last long.

Mar 22, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; St. Louis Blues right wing T.J. Oshie (74) skates on the ice against the Philadelphia Flyers during the first period at Wells Fargo Center. The Flyers won 4-1. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Other notable trades: T.J. Oshie has also made the move into the Eastern Conference, joining the Washington Capitals from the St. Louis Blues, as has Brandon Saad, who was traded from the Chicago Blackhawks to the Columbus Blue Jackets. Both are players that, like Kessel, add instant value to their new teams. And let’s not forget about Evander Kane. The 24-year-old winger will be joining the Buffalo Sabres this season.

Many Eastern Conference teams also picked up talent at the draft: Jack Eichel (Buffalo), Noah Hanifin (Carolina), Mitch Marner (Toronto), Pavel Zacha (NJ), and Zach Werenski (CBJ) were all selected within the top 10. It’s hard to say who will make the leap to the NHL in the upcoming season (and, if they do, how much of an impact they’ll have), but the talent is there.

My prediction: As of now, I’m undecided on the Flyers being a playoff team. There are currently too many unknowns for me to say definitively. We do not know what Dave Hakstol will be able to accomplish with this team. We do not know if players like Umburger and Lecavalier will bounce back and have a better season than the last one. We do not know if Steve Mason will be able to stay healthy. We do not know how or where the new parts will fit. We don’t even know where existing parts fit, as the second and third lines are still anyone’s guess. Brayden Schenn is still in winger-center limbo.

If the Flyers do miss the playoffs, I don’t think they’ll be too far out — perhaps a 9th or 10th place finish. There’s no doubt Ron Hextall is making the Flyers a better team, but they’ve still got a ways to go before they can compete with the Tampa Bays and New Yorks of the conference.

Denise Mroz – Marc Naples – Gus Richardson – Ryan Walsh

Next: Gus Richardson's Prediction

Gus Richardson

There’s a lot of speculation on how well the Flyers can do this season. We as a staff are close to releasing our predictions as well. First, we’d like to hear from you all.

Let’s think about the things that have changed for the Flyers this upcoming season, and how that should affect your ideas on how well they can do.

First off, the Flyers have a new head coach in Dave Hakstol. Hakstol is a very succesful college coach coming from the University of North Dakota, and has coached a few NHL superstars while they were there. This leads us to believe that he knows what he’s doing in terms of developing young talent to be NHL ready, but can he continue to do it at the NHL level? That’s to be seen, but the prospect of it is exciting.

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With that in mind, the second thing to realize is that with a new head coach, there’s going to need to be some time for the team to get settled in to the new system. This could be good and bad. Younger players may begin to develop before our eyes and produce more, while veterans may have trouble getting into the new groove of a whole new way to play. Hakstol’s system in college was highly regarded one that let stars showcase their talent, something we hope will help Claude Giroux and Jake Voracek become more consistent and productive.

Outside of coaching, the Flyers did not add many more new faces to the roster. They drafted a great defensive prospect in Ivan Provorov, who will probably not see NHL time since the Flyers don’t have the cap or roster space available. They signed a veteran defenseman in Evegeni Medvedev and a solid backup goalie in Michal Neuvirth in Free Agency. Samuel Morin and Shayne Gostisbehere are their best prospects available for call-up from the Phantoms, but again they neither have the roster or cap space to make such a move at this time.

If they can make a trade or move that will allow for one of the young defensive prospects to play some time in the NHL this season, then I think their chances of doing well go up. For now, I see them as a 40-30-12 for 92 points team, which unfortunately means no playoffs yet again.

Hopefully I am wrong.

Denise Mroz – Marc Naples – Julianne Prestis – Ryan Walsh

Next: Ryan Walsh's Prediction

Ryan Walsh

My girlfriend likes to tell me that I am way too optimistic, even when there is no reason to be. No matter how improbable, I think it is always good to believe the best possible result is achievable. Positive thinking leads to positive results, right?

I say this because, in short, I believe that the 2015-16 Philadelphia Flyers are a lot better than people give them credit for. Call me crazy, because I could be totally off-base here, but I think that there is reason to believe that the Flyers can put together a deep playoff run this season and, quite possibly, contend for the Stanley Cup.

I know what you’re thinking, and yes, right now it does sound absolutely insane, but just hear me out, and give some baseless optimism a try, you might like it.

The Offense

Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

During the 2013-14 season, the Flyers had seven 20-goal scorers, six of which are still on the team. Last year, Michael Raffl added his name to the list of players who have scored 20 or more goals in the orange and black, despite missing 15 games.

Raffl also just happens to play on a line with Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek, who are arguably one of the best duos in the NHL, so there’s that.

Behind that beautiful top line, you have players like Wayne Simmonds, Sean Couturier, Brayden Schenn, Sam Gagner, and Matt Read, who can all make some serious contributions in their own right.

You can also expect improvements from the bottom half of the offense now that Read and Umberger are not playing through injuries, and Lecavalier isn’t feuding with Craig Berube, and Zac Rinaldo just isn’t here anymore. With the depth that the Flyers have up front, there’s no reason that this group shouldn’t be one of the league’s elite offenses.

The Defense

Mandatory Credit: John Geliebter-USA TODAY Sports

Now this is the part where I expect to be called out, because the defense was something of a dumpster fire last year. However, what gives me hope about the defense for this coming season is the large group of defensemen all trying to make the top-six.

The Flyers currently have eight defensemen under contract, and that is not including any of their tremendous group of defensive prospects, so technically, there are 13 or 14 guys who are competing for just six spots. I’m quite sure one of the things I learned about capitalism in middle school was that if there is more competition in the market, the result is a better product. This same logic could be applied to defensemen. The sheer amount of players competing for starting spots will lead to the best possible pairings the team could put out there.

You could argue that even the best six guys from this group will still be bad, but you’d be forgetting the talent of Mark Streit, the consistency of Nick Schultz, and the steady improvement of Luke Schenn.

Call me crazy, but I think we’ll be okay on defense.

The Goalies

This is an easy one, because Steve Mason has been rock solid during his tenure in Philadelphia, and he now has arguably one of the best backups in the league in Michal Neuvirth. For the first time in a long, long time the goaltending is not really an issue for the Flyers.

Even if Mason takes a step back from his spectacular .928 SV%, he could easily still remain above-average. The only real concern with Mason is keeping him healthy, which proved to be an issue last season. However, he has had the entire offseason to get healthy from the number of different injuries that plagued him last year, and is ready to go for the fall.

Predictions

Now that you see where I’m getting my outrageous optimism from, don’t you think that the Flyers at least have the potential to put together a solid season with a decent playoff run? Yes, there are weaknesses, but there’s also a tremendous amount of upside to this group, and if you focus on solely that, anything is possible!

That being said, here are my predictions for how the Flyers will fare in the standings:

Record: 42-29-11 (Wild Card #1)

Denise Mroz – Marc Naples – Julianne Prestis – Gus Richardson

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