Robert Hagg and Shayne Gostisbehere: A Flyers Feud or A Matter of Fit?

The Flyers Fan Base Has Pitted Gostisbehere Against Hagg. Can They Coexist?

Cats and dogs, Hatfields versus McCoys, Tom, and Jerry, “wit” or “witout”.  These are some of the great feuds of our time, and it may be time to add another, Robert Hagg Vs. Shayne Gostisbehere.  It seems silly, especially since both play for the Flyers, but people have taken sides and apologies won’t fix it.

To fully understand how we got here we should look back at the beginning. It was November 14, 2015, the Flyers have a record of 6-8-3 and are struggling under rookie head coach Dave Haskstol. On this night the Flyers beat the Hurricanes and Gostisbehere, dressing for the first time that season, cemented his place on the roster. The Flyers team had star power on offense lead by Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, and Wayne Simmonds. But the group forwards were not nearly as deep as today’s team with the likes of Ryan White, Chris VanVelde, R.J. Umberger, and a diminished Matt Read.

Worse still was the Flyers’ defense corps, which had suffered greatly under salary cap constraints. Michael Del Zotto led the defensemen in minutes up to that point in the season, Luke Schenn was still with the team and thought of as a viable option. The fan base was realizing the sad reality of Andrew MacDonald, who had just finished the first year of what was a pricey half a decade contract.

Things were not looking up, but enter the smooth-skating kid with the funny name and slick moves to change all of that. Ghost, as he came to be called, had 17 goals and made the Flyers powerplay very scary. In conjunction with the strength of a great Steve Mason season, Gostisbehere’s play brought the Flyers into the playoffs in a season where the expectation was to do little more than free up cap space. He was exciting and effective. That great rookie season forged a bond with the Flyers fan base. He was that most unexpected and spectacular present that you would always love and never forget.

Robert Hagg’s journey to a roster spot was much less spectacular and much more deliberate than his rival’s.  He was drafted in 2013 in the second round. While Ghost was an enigma, free to play as he had always played, Hagg was forged into the player he is today. Unlike Gostisbehere who only spent 21 games in the minors, Hagg spent years. Hagg played over 190 games in the AHL, first being broken down and then rebuilt. Hagg was drafted as a two-way defenseman who could see powerplay minutes. In the AHL he was coached and built into a shot-blocking and hitting machine that makes the simple play.

Things came to a head at the beginning of the 2019-2020 season. The ascension of Provorov, the development of Myers and Sanheim had solidified the defense and claimed three spots on the ice.  The addition of Matt Niskanen and Justin Braun committed five of the six defensive spots, leaving Gostisbehere and Hagg to compete for the last opening. This the beginning of the animosity.

The Ghost Faction and Their Arguments

The faction that supports Ghost is vehement about Ghost’s superiority to Hagg or virtually any Flyers defensemen save for Provorov.  The primary argument utilized is the Corsi percentage.  Corsi, at its base, is counting stat, converted to a percentage. It can be misleading and often points to inaccurate conclusions, especially looked at in a Corsi vacuum.  The most severe drawback, amongst a multitude of them, is that it has no way to gauge shot quality. Said another way, a blocked shot from the blueline is as valuable as a shot from a two on zero breakaway. This metric is the one that Ghost consistently excels in and is the weapon of choice for the “advanced metrics” crowd.

Corsi certainly has its place and can be used to reinforce or validate conclusions, but to use this as the primary tool for evaluation is silly. To that point, as good as Gostisbehere’s Corsi is, his plus/minus is inversely bad. Since goals determine wins, not shots, it would seem that plus/minus, even with its drawbacks, would be closer to a player defining stat than Corsi. Gostisbehere has a career Corsi percentage of 52.1 and is -29.

His benefits are obvious to the naked eye.  At his best, he is an offensive puck mover that makes great decisions with the puck. He is a dynamo on the power play, easily in the league’s top ten as a quarterback. When Gostisbehere is going well, he is a defenseman who can keep offensive pressure in the opposition and make jaw-dropping setups to teammates.

He usually makes the right play defensively, however, the issue is not his decision making, it is his execution.  Much like the eye test shows how good he is with the puck, it also reveals that Gostisbehere struggles mightily defending the cycle. He makes the right decision but lacks the strength of physicality to dispossess the puck carrier.  This leads to high-end chances.

If he is trying to cover the puck handler on the cycle, it is effectively an odd-man situation.  The cycling player can hold him off while still having the passing or shooting options.  This is the fatal flaw in Gostisbehere’s defending and the league has recognized it.

The more fervent Gostisbehere supporters also claim that the Flyers have not found a player who is smart enough/good enough to play with him. At its essence this is true, but it should be noted that the list of players who are unable to play with him is getting longer and more distinguished by the day. Hagg, Braun, Sanheim, Niskanen, Gudas, and even Provorov are all members of said list.  It seems the one person who could play with him was Andrew MacDonald. I hear he is available.  As the list grows, one has to wonder if it is the other player or if it is Ghost.  Hagg has no such list.

The Hagg Faction and Their Arguments

First, “faction” might be too strong a word. Hagg certainly has not inspired the loyalty or the strong positive feelings that Gostisbehere has. On the contrary, he seems to draw a lot of vitriol, largely by the same people who display blind loyalty to Gostisbehere. Hagg’s “supporters” see him as a better alternative for the team, not necessarily a more skilled player. The Flyers seem to play better with Hagg in the lineup.

Hagg does not fill up the score sheet, though he did collect more points than Gostisbehere this past season and he provides a solid physical and defensive presence. He hits the opposition often and is quite good at jarring the puck loose.  While not a shutdown defender Hagg is competent, competes hard, and is willing to stick up for teammates and block shots.  Hagg is not immune from the occasional break down in coverage, but no more prone than most of the other players. It should be pointed out that Gostisbehere is less prone than Hagg to mental mistakes during defensive coverage.

Hagg detractors may argue that hits don’t matter, though the Islanders forechecking the playoffs would seem to indicate otherwise. While we can question the effectiveness of a hit, it does support the notion that Hagg is physical. This is generally considered a positive element in a collision sport.

Hagg is also a prolific shot blocker. Again, this is not a cut and dry positive.  Much like Corsi, the location and how the shot is blocked is more important than the stat. There is a huge difference between closing down the shooter as he shoots versus waving a stick at an inbound shot that may end up being more of an unwanted deflection rather than a block. In the case of Hagg, he is typically right on the shooter at point of shot genesis, which is a good thing.

The Comparison

What may be happening is a contrast in style.  Form over flash, style over substance.  The Ghost fanatics are certain that Hagg stinks and immediately go to Corsi as evidence and think that is the end of the argument.  The Flyers outshot their opponent when Ghost is on the ice. The Flyers don’t when Hagg (44.5% career Corsi percentage) is on the ice.  I don’t think any fan would be unhappy if Hagg’s Corsi number looked more like Gostisbehere’s.

Unfortunately for Ghost, shots don’t win games, goals do. If you look at +/- or even-strength goal differential, Hagg dominates.  Over Hagg’s career, he is a plus 16, forty-five to the good when compared to Ghost’s career of -29.  If Ghost was a net plus player over his career Ghost’s supporters would certainly be pleased, despite their cries now that +/- is too random and does not matter.  If Ghost was a plus 16 over his career there would not be a discussion, because it means the Flyers outscore their opponents when Ghost is on the ice, which helps win games.

The argument comes down to the solid, but the unspectacular play of Hagg against elite powerplay presence and uneven five on five play of Gostisbehere.  The caveat is that he can be a force if he has the right partner, like Andrew MacDonald. Given the Flyers’ cap circumstance, it looks like his partner will need to come from within the organization.

It can be further surmised that if the Flyers had the optimal partner for Gostisbehere in their system, they would have already used him.  With no significant roster changes foreseen, and a suitable partner for Gostisbehere still not yet found, we can expect to see both him and Hagg perform at about the same level we saw last year.