Robert Hagg and Shayne Gostisbehere: A Flyers Feud or A Matter of Fit?

Analysis: Who Has Been Better

Plus/Minus or Corsi are abstract statistics, hopeful descriptors that try to add color to the one stat that matters, wins. Wins may be ultimately the best indicator of who is better for the Flyers, not necessarily the best player. Wins cut through a lot of the noise that +/- or Corsi introduce.

In the case of Hagg and his subpar Corsi numbers, wins maybe the great equalizer negating Corsi flaws like shot attempt weighting disparity, defensive zone start percentage, and opponent quality.  Put another way, maybe Hagg gives up more shot attempts, but they are not good ones.  Perhaps most of them are easy saves or blocks or maybe not even on the net.

Gostisbehere wins may provide cover for an unfavorable +/-. Goals disparity is the core of winning and losing in hockey, so plus/minus is a more direct indicator than Corsi however; it is an even-strength stat. Gostisbehere is a power-play maestro, it seems it’s more than possible that his presence on the powerplay, which leads to more goals and perhaps more wins, is something that is not at all expressed in plus-minus.

Career                                          Games Played               Team Points           Team Points/Gm
Robert Hagg                                 202                                       218                          1.0796
Shayne Gostisbehere                340                                       357                          1.050

On the surface, analyzing the career statistics for both players, it appears that Hagg has a slight edge in points. In 357 games with Gostisbehere in the line up the team has netted 357 points, 166 wins, 25 overtime losses, and 149 losses. With Hagg in the line up the Flyers have 218 points in 202 games, 103 wins, 12 overtime losses, and 87 losses.

This is not an apple to apple comparison of course. Gostisbehere made his debut before Hagg, he was forced to play in front of Steve Mason in meltdown mode. If we shrink his sample size down to the seasons where Hagg was also on the roster, which was the 2017 season, we should smooth the majority of roster inconsistencies.

Since 2017                               Games Played                   Team Points          Team Points/Gm
Robert Hagg                               201                                         217                          1.0796
Shayne Gostisbehere              198                                         200                           1.0101

It appears clear that the Flyers, as they have been constituted, play better Hagg in the lineup.  When sharing the same roster, over the same period of time, Hagg had nearly a .07 increase over Gostisbehere. Over eighty games that’s more than a five-point difference. That was the difference between the play-in round and the round-robin in last season’s playoffs.

Without a partner who can make up for Gostibehere’s defensive shortcoming and Provorov now dominating the powerplay, one has to wonder if he has a place in the lineup. Oddly enough, as the roster is currently constructed, Hagg is probably best suited to be Gostisbehere’s partner. His best chance to return to regular play may rest with his “foil”, which will not sit well with parts of the fan base.