SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - AUGUST 21: The NHL's Seattle Kraken Team Store during its grand opening on August 21, 2020 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Jim Bennett/Getty Images)
Does it Make Sense for the Flyers to Expose Jake Voracek in the Expansion Draft?
Maybe it is the effects of not having the Flyers or even any NHL hockey in November. Maybe it the madness of politics and lockdowns. Or maybe it is my own personal riot in my mind and it is playing out in expansion mania, but I had the weirdest thought and I just can’t let it go. My mind is stuck on expansion and it is going to strange places.
The Flyers will likely protect one goalie, three defensemen and seven forwards (rather than the eight skaters and one goalie). The goalie situation is pretty simple. Protect Carter Hart, leave Elliott as expansion fodder. Simple and easy, there is not much overthinking required.
The defense situation is slightly more complex As it stands today, the protected defensemen will be Provorov, Myers and Sanheim. This leaves Gostisbehere, Braun and Hagg exposed to be plucked. These are players of significant value, if we use Braun for reference, he fetched a second and third-round pick when the Flyers acquired him. It was a bit of an overpay, but a reasonable market. Hagg should be in the same ballpark as Braun. Hagg is younger and had a better contract than Braun. Gostisbehere, in my mind, represents a massive increase in worth given his skillset. Losing Ghost for nothing represents a problem, but a problem with many solutions.
Upfront with the forwards is where it gets fun and a little crazy. I expect the Flyers will protect Giroux and Hayes; they are players with a no-movement clause that requires their protection. Sean Couturier may be the team’s best player at his moment, and the Selke winner will be protected. Travis Konecny and Oskar Lindblom are two young players that can score, which the team would want to protect. Nolan Patrick was the second overall pick for a reason, and despite his injuries it seems a needless risk to that kind of investment available in expansion.
That leave two spots open, with one very big name still not protected. That name of course is Jake Voracek. Voracek was a no brainer for me. He may be the most naturally gifted player on the team, and is one of the ten best players in the league at his position. The net takeaway was that Jake was really good, and he should be protected.
Further cementing that argument is the Flyers are looking at players like JVR, Scott Laughton and Michael Raffl as players who would be protected if Voracek was not. As much as I like the players who would be protected in Jake’s stead, they are not nearly as good. Not even in the same ballpark.
Things get bleaker, as I feel certain that Chuck Fletcher is going to mangle the expansion draft. If you look at his work in Minnesota, it is really cringe-worthy. The Wild gave up Alex Tuch, in exchange for the Knights taking Erik Haula. This maneuver was to protect the defenseman Mathew Dumba from expansion, which was a reasonable thing to do at the time. The issue of course is that this could have been dealt with sooner in the season, rather than forcing Vegas to take Haula, who scored 29 goals, by giving them the 20-year-old Tuch who scored 15 goals and looked like a beast in this past season’s playoffs.
Fletcher’s deal was not the worst deal struck in the great Vegas expansion extortion, but it was still pretty bad. The Flyers will be facing a dilemma on defense, they will likely have to expose Gostisbehere in the expansion draft, and it would be bad to lose him for nothing, but much like in Minnesota, the cure could be worse than the disease. Would Fletcher send a prospect, like Morgan Frost and a first-round pick, to Vegas to pick JVR? As bad as that sounds, I bet Fletcher could make it worse.
The prospect of Fletcher wheeling and dealing got me thinking. It would be crazy not to protect Voracek, right? But I could not shake the thought. It turns our covid lockdowns, Chuck Fletchers expansion record, and the salary cap to take me to some strange corners of my mind.
While Voracek is insanely talented, it has never quite translated completely into commensurate production. In 2014 Jake looked a lot like David Pasternak does now. But we only got one year of this kind of dominance. Jake has been a solid and consistent contributor for years, but with his kind of talent, it seemed to me he could have been more of a force on offense. I thought he would make a permanent jump from really good to great. That has never happened.
Jakub Voracek, Philadelphia Flyers (Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports) /
Jake is not an elite player but is being paid like one. As of writing this piece Voracek will count $8,250,000 against the cap until the 2023-2024 season and has the 34th highest AAV in the league. Voracek is thirty-one years old and at this point in his career it is unlikely he will make the jump back to greatness. With Sanheim, Hart, Couturier and potentially Myers needing contracts in the coming years, the Flyers could put the money dedicated to Voracek to good use on the young core of defensemen.
The Seattle Kraken, who would have minimal concerns when it comes to the salary cap, could be tempted to take a player of Voracek’s skill level. Would it be enough to divert attention from Gostisbehere? It probably could be. Gostisbehere is the asset that would be more liquid, easier to trade, given his salary/performance ratio. He is also more likely to increase in trade value. But Jake is a proven NHL top-line player and would be an immediate core piece for the Kraken. Don’t think that the Kraken won’t feel pressure to duplicate the success that Vegas had. Voracek would bring much more certainty to the roster than Gostisbehere.
The most important thing to evaluate in this strategy is how it affects the Flyers on the ice. Assuming that Voracek plays as well as he did this season, which was his best effort in years, do the Flyers have anyone who could replace him. Jake is a very good playmaker, a monster along the wall when he is so inclined. He is also a skilled in open ice and has very good speed. His combination of size and strength and skill is unmatched on the current roster.
Unfortunately, there is not an obvious Voracek replacement in the prospect pipeline. Morgan Frost, Bobby Brink, German Rubtsov, Isaac Ratcliffe and Tyson Foerster all lack Jake’s talent and versatility. The Flyers would certainly take a step back if Voracek, as he plays today, is not on the roster. But the question has to be asked beyond this season. With a really good young nucleus, especially on defense and in goal, is it possible that in two seasons that a diminished Voracek, and his high salary will become an anchor and impediment to success? I think it is a distinct possibility, and perhaps the Flyers could use expansion as a way to proactively solve a problem rather than create and compound new ones.
