Twenty (Not So) Bold Flyers Predictions For 2021: Grading Flyers Forecast from 2020
The Flyers 2020 season was one that seemed to start with much promise, but quickly turned sideways, if not backwards. By season’s end what unfolded had players, executives and fans asking “what just happened?” In many ways, the answers are still unclear, but the prediction results are in, and it is not pretty. After several solid seasons of good predictions I, like the Flyers, fell off the cliff in 2020. My picks reflected a clear pattern of excessive optimism and it led me to be more wrong than right.
2020 9-11 (45%)
The Obvious
JVR does not top 25 goals: (WIN)
This feels like a win because of a technicality, an unexpected circumstance related to covid and the schedule being shortened. Even so, if projected out to an 82-game season JVR was on pace for 24.89 goals, which is not 25. That said I do need to eat a lot of crow. As someone who disliked the JVR signing, he had a great year. It was the most sustained effort I have seen from him since the 2011 playoffs. It is maddening that when JVR puts it together the team falls apart. Whatever went wrong with the Flyers, JVR was one thing that was absolutely on target and his resurgences can be a key building block for next season.
Hart Break: Hart will get injured and will not be a Vezina finalist: (WIN)
Predicting Flyers’ goalie issues is like predicting the sun will rise. Hart was not great, though he did not have much help. He sustained an MCL injury. Hart saw no action after April 15. It was clear he needed to clear his head as well, potentially brought on by bad defensive zone coverage that lead to continual shelling. The knee is healed, but is Hart’s head? The Flyers need to give him help this season to get him back on track.
Joel Farabee scores at least 15 goals (WIN)
Farabee was a bright spot leading the team with 20 goals in a supporting role. It will be interesting to see if Farabee will establish himself as a top line player once the team breaks camp. Last season Farabee saw bottom six minutes at even strength, which is not something befitting the team’s top goal scorer.
Couts Does not Repeat as the Selke Winner (WIN)
The Flyers defensive zone was a mess once the opposition figured out how they were defending. Couturier gave a noble effort but a system wide break down dashed his chances. He was not even named as a Selke Finalist due to the lack of defensive cohesion around him.
Kevin Hayes is solid again in 2021 but does not top 25 goals (WIN)
Hayes never looked right and suffered a sports hernia at some point during the season. He was not the dominant puck protector that he was in 2019 which could undermine a “solid” designation. But even injured he was able to post 30 points a plus/minus -2 and a corsi of 52%. When compared to the likes of Nolan Patrick, he looks pretty solid, even if not the force he was the previous season.
Samuel Morin Plays at least 5 games for the Flyers (WIN)
Big Sam suited up 20 times, mostly on defense, as the surreal, and ill-fated “Morin at forward” experiment ended early in the season. I still hold hope that with a solid camp, and some good injury luck, that Morin can contribute as a bottom pair and penalty killing defensemen.
Brian Elliott comes back one more time (WIN)
Moose came back once more, and he was not bad, even with a porous defense in front of him. He is now in Tampa and we wish him luck in his chase for the cup!
Ghost is traded (LOSS)
Technically Ghost was traded, but it was after the expansion draft. No partial credit for me in this case. In years to come I expect we look at the 2020 trade deadline as the seminal date in determining the fate of the team. Fletcher’s inability or unwillingness to trade Gostisbehere at the deadline have implications that impact 2021 and beyond.
Flyers Contend for a Top Spot In the Division (LOSS)
After a promising playoff run in the summer of 2020, it seemed the Flyers were ascending and would challenge the Caps and the Bruins for supremacy. It was not so. A poor defensive strategy and a schedule too tight to change it doomed the Flyers. By the end of the outdoor game a flaw in the team’s zone coverage was found. It was exploited for the rest of the season and sealed their fate.
Provorov Finishes in the Top 10 for the Norris Trophy (LOSS)
Provorov suffered the most from the departure of Matt Niskanen and spent most of the season trying to compensate for his many partners’ defensive weaknesses. He did not receive a single Norris Trophy vote. Provorov finished eighth in even strength minutes, fifth in total minutes. He finished 47th in even strength points, 34th in points overall, among defensmen. Despite a down year, I would rather have Provorov over current Norris winner Adam Fox.
Sanheim Sets A Career High in Points (LOSS)
The Flyers defense corps was in a constant state of disruption and turmoil, trying to fill the Niskanen gap. Like Provorov, Sanheim was a casualty of the unsettled pairings. Sanheim played nearly half of his even strength minutes (393:15) with Philippe Myers, who was erratic. He also spent significant time paired with Justin Braun (178.30), Ivan Provorov (167:13), and Robert Hagg (125:19).
While Sanheim’s -22 +/- was second worst on the team, he did not play as badly as that number may indicate. Sanheim was often victimized by mistake made by his partners. In addition, Sanheim was used by the team to stop the bleeding to try to reverse momentum after a bad stretch. Sometimes it worked, sometimes it didn’t, like the -6 he took in a 9-0 rout by the Rangers. Given the situation the team faced, Sanheim was given the short end of the stick and was repeatedly put in unfavorable situations.
Nicolas Aube-Kubel Collects 10 goals (LOSS)
Building from a decent 2019, it seemed the rugged winger was going to use his physical style to eat up minutes and fill the score sheet. NAK averaged just over 11 minutes a night and did not factor much on offense. Aube-Kubel spent much of the season saddled with the listless Nolan Patrick, but also had minutes with a more productive Scott Laughton. Overall NAK did not take full advantage of his opportunities, scoring one goal over his final 35 games of the season.
Philippe Myers Sets a Career High in Points (LOSS)
Myers collected only 11 points for the Flyers in a disappointing season, far below the 17 he collected in the previous season. Myers needed to take a step up, particularly on defense and it did not happen. Be it a developmental ceiling or a lack of coaching brought on by the Covid schedule, fans will need to look south to Nashville to watch Myers as he was traded for Ryan Ellis.
Flyers Sign a Value RHD FA (probably from Minnesota or TVR) (LOSS)
The Flyers inability to replace Niskanen turned into prominent and reoccurring challenge during the season, and it dogged them throughout. They Flyers opted not to sign a right handed defensemen. In a strange bit of logic the front office opted to sign Erik Gustafsson, a sub par left handed defensemen, to play the right side. As one might have guessed it did not turn out well.
Justin Braun not re-signed (LOSS)
Yes I lost this, but having to suit Braun up each night made the Flyers the bigger losers. My hope for Braun this season is that Chuck Fletcher stops calling him an “elite” defender. It is not fair to Braun or to elite defenders.
Flyers get robbed in the Ghost trade (WIN)
The Flyers got nothing for Ghost, and actually had to give up assets to get away from his contract. It should be pointed out that he is the fifth all time scorer among Flyers defensemen and in the prime of his career. Even his most ardent critics would find this deal hard to swallow, for whatever his shortcomings, the negative value seems outlandish. This deal is so bad that it has broken my ability to rationalize it, I think this may not be the end of the Ghost saga.
Four Fs: Frost, Friedman, Felix or Forget about it. Frost and Friedman play more games than any other minor league players for the Flyers (LOSS)
The Fs should have been for “Fail, Fail and Fantastic Fail”. Wade Allison played in 14 games for the Flyers, Sandstrom never got a start, Friedman was lost on waivers and then injured, and Frost played only two games before sustaining a season ending injury. The lack of production from these players, and the loss of Friedman is a significant amount of player capital which is not on the ice. Frost and Sandstrom need to show something to the organization this year in order to be a piece of the Flyers long term plans.
Nolan Patrick Plays 55 Games and Scores 10 Goals (LOSS)
Patrick played 52 games and netted only four goals, while compiling a team worst -30 plus/minus. The Flyers had a -19 differential at even strength putting in perspective just how much Patick’s down year affected the team.
I had hoped Patrick would find his comfort zone, or at least try to dictate play rather than engaging in the frustrating passivity that has been all too familiar in his play. The Flyers failure to get anything out of Patrick was a massive headwind this season, and changed the organizations view of Patrick enough to trade him.
Flyers Fourth Line Will Be A Mess Until Christmas (WIN)
The entire bottom six was a mess through the first month of the season. Connor Bunnaman, Morgan Frost, Andy Andreoff, Sam Morin and Nicolas Aube-Kubel all were shuffled in and out of the lineup. Nolan Patrick was tried with various combinations in unsuccessful attempts to get him going. Patrick’s difficult season was a constant source of disruption for the line up and undermined chemistry and continuity through out the season.
This will be the most talented group of forwards the Flyers have had in a decade. (LOSS)
This is hard to quantify. On paper it certainly seemed as if the Flyers had scoring top to bottom before the season started. In reality only five forwards scored more than 10 goals. I was expecting to see more from players like Aube-Kubel, Laughton, Voracek, Lindblom and especially Nolan Patrick. In short the talent may have been there but it did not translate to production on the ice.
The Flyers roster at the start of the season was made up of a nice mix of veterans and young players which made the team appear poised to contend as the young players continued to improve. In almost every case, the young players did not take the step forward that was needed.
While it is easy to single out Patrick, who was especially ineffective, NAK, Frost, Myers, Morin and Friedman all failed to take steps forward to help the team. It is not unusual for young players to struggle, but typically there are practice days to correct mistakes, learn new skills. The covid pause and the slammed scheduled all but eliminated the Flyers ability to practice. From February 18th until April 18th, the Flyers played 31 games, 17 of them on the road. That was in only 59 days. During that span how much time was available for practice? There was travel, to the city and the venue, press conferences and the games themselves.
Much like children who have been locked out of schools have not learned nearly as well, the Flyers young players were robbed of practice time that they desperately needed to learn and improve. They lost 20 times in that 59 day stretch, and it is not hard to see a different outcome for the season, and my picks, if there had been time to practice.