Schenn and Ghost stole the headlines this season, but Sean Couturier may have been the real breakout player for the Philadelphia Flyers last season
As the 2016-17 Philadelphia Flyers season approaches, it’s time to take a final look at how individuals performed last season. One player I’ve been putting off doing is Sean Couturier.
Sometimes it feels like Sean Couturier has been around as a Flyer forever. It is true that he has played 5 seasons as a Flyer, but starting at 18, he’s still only 23. In those 5 years, many Flyers fans have seen enough to write him off as merely a defensive forward.
Couturier, however, is right at the age where players typically breakout offensively. Schenn for instance, had his an offensive breakout last season at 23. At this age, Giroux jumped from 47 to 76 points. Going back further, you’d see Jeff Carter similarly jumping from 53 to 84 points at this age.
So it’s time. But can Couturier make a similar jump? Based on last season, the signs point to yes.
Start with a look at Couturier’s 5v5 shot trends into last season.
The chart shows that Couturier has always been an effective suppressor of shots against (orange line, lower is better). The tradeoff there is that he’s also been a drag on shot creation for the Flyers (blue line, higher is better). This is partially explained by Couturier’s use as a shutdown center against top competition.
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This year, Couturier’s on-ice shot factors took a quantum leap. His shot suppression was as good as ever, and his shot creation was positive for the first time ever. Put those two factors together and account for shot locations, and his relative expected on-ice goal differential (black line, higher is better) is outstanding.
Put that relative expected on-ice goal differential (quite a mouthful) into perspective last season across the team:
Couturier’s off the charts, plain and simple.
Don’t believe me, with on-ice shot/possession numbers? Couturier’s points production say the same thing.
The cumulative picture unmistakably puts to the Sean Couturier as the Philadelphia Flyers’ best 5v5 player last year.
This is a little shocking, especially if you glanced at the stat sheet and said “meh, another 39 point season from Couturier.” Of course that was effect by Couturier missing 20 games last season after being remarkably healthy the last few years.
Couturier does not play on the first power play unit, and presumably that will not change any time soon. Without a big PP role he will probably not ever be a 75+ point player. Nor is Couturier’s game flashy–his style of play is very deliberate.
None of that may really matter going forward. For one, Couturier is already one of the most trusted defensive forwards on the Flyers. His trusted status on the penalty kill and against top opposition lines will stay the same as ever.
What will change is that, for the first time ever, Couturier is looking like a net offensive gain. Based on his age and shot statistics (which people often use because of their strong predictive effect), expect to see a career high in points next season from Couturier. I’ll go one further and say he’ll set that career high easily.
It will be interesting to see how Couturier performs for Team North America. Alongside much flashier players, he was on the 4th line in practice the other day. I bet that will change. A key role in a run by Team North America might get people to start viewing Couturier differently. He deserves as much.
Last year, Shayne Gostisbehere and Brayden’s Schenn big second half sucked up all the headlines. Couturier toiled in the shadows, which is probably just fine with him. Nevertheless, we are likely at the turning point of his career, and the numbers say to expect big things.