Philadelphia Flyers: 2015-16 Staff Predictions

3 of 6

Mark Naples

Preseason camp hasn’t even started yet, but it’s about time to start shaping up the Philadelphia Flyers’ prospects for this season. Their roster is unlikely to change before opening day, and I believe the key questions for the 2015-16 are already apparent.

More from Editorials

The Flyers’ Performance the Last Two Seasons

The Flyers roster has not changed that much the last few seasons. There are good reasons for that. It is primarily because Hextall is not seeking quick fixes, and is waiting for young players to arrive. Given this approach, dramatically different results from the past two seasons should not be expected.

The 2013-14 Flyers were a playoff team, but not a real threat for the Cup. They excelled at special teams, but didn’t score very much at even strength and were underwater on 5v5 goal differential.

Without Kimmo Timonen, among other factors, the Flyers penalty kill collapsed last season. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

The following season, 2014-15, the Flyers lineup didn’t see many changes. The only substantial changes were the subtraction of Kimmo Timonen, and swapping Scott Hartnell for RJ Umberger. Despite these modest changes, the results on the ice significantly suffered.

In 2014-15, the Philadelphia Flyers power play was again excellent, ranking third in the NHL. On the other hand, the penalty kill collapsed, ranking near or at the bottom of the league all season. Lastly, the Flyers scored very few goals at 5v5 (24th in league), although they were tight defensively so they broke about even for 5v5 overall.

Three Key Factors for This Season

In my opinion, there are three main factors which will make or break the Flyers season. First, the biggest offseason change in terms of player personnel was the addition of Sam Gagner. As I have previously written, there is a reasonable chance that Gagner will be a productive player in Philadelphia. He should help the Flyers scoring depth.

Matt Read and RJ Umberger must bounce back from very disappointing seasons. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

The second factor is scoring depth improving internally. The Flyers suffered a major scoring drop-off last season from Matt Read and RJ Umberger. Read has always been a reliable 20-goal-man for the Flyers, but last season he lagged to only eight goals. RJ Umberger also suffered through a very anonymous season, scoring only nine goals. This was a big hit from Scott Hartnell, who usually scored 20 or 30 goals for the Flyers. That’s a lot of goals disappearing from the stat sheet, but both Read and Umberger may have been playing hurt for large parts of last season. Whatever the reason for the swoon, how much either Umberger and Read bounce back will play a large part in the Flyers success in 2015-16.

The third key factor for this season is the penalty kill. Only basement dwellers, Arizona, Edmonton and Buffalo had worse penalty kills last season. A repeat performance will doom the Flyers to another early spring vacation.

This dramatic drop-off was somewhat puzzling, as the Flyers penalty kill was 5th and 7th in the league the previous two seasons, respectively. Surely the mere absence of Kimmo Timonen couldn’t account for a drop in the league standings by 20 places. At this point I can’t put my finger on what went wrong there, nor make a specific prescription on what to do differently, but the Philadelphia Flyers simply must find a way to get back into at least the top 20 on the penalty kill.

Putting it all Together

Pervading over all these on-ice factors is the debut of Dave Hakstol behind the bench. He’s a wild card, having never coached professional hockey before. It would be speculation on my part to say what strengths and weaknesses he will as an NHL coach. One constant is the Flyers assistant coaching staff, who directly run the special teams.

Prediction: Gagner will finish third on the team in scoring in 2015-16. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

Running over all these factors together, I will make a few predictions regarding the above factors:

Sam Gagner will be the third leading scorer on the team, behind Giroux and Voracek with ~55 points.
Umberger and Read will score ~30 goals combined. An improvement from their 17 last season, but distinctly short of either of them being 20 goal scorers individually.
The penalty kill will be top-20 but not much more.

For me, this formula adds up to a bubble playoff team. I’m not sure if the Philadelphia Flyers will make the playoffs, but if they’re not contending for a spot down to the wire I will be disappointed.

Denise Mroz – Julianne Prestis – Gus Richardson – Ryan Walsh

Next: Julianne Prestis' Prediction

More from Broad Street Buzz

Home/Editorials