Through a series of unfortunate events, Canada meets Russia a few rounds too early. As I’ve said before, there are other worthy teams that have more than a legitimate chance. However, these two feature the most stars, and would make for the best final matchup. Instead, each team was upset in the round robin, and the seeding system has paired them together a bit early. Now, only one will have a chance for any medal. Both fanbases are cautiously optimistic, because each teams seems to have clicked after the last game that each played. However, the talent level is so high on both sides that if one side does not play extremely well, they’ll get torched.
I’ve seen a few lists on the top 5 reasons why either team will win. First, I’ll review some of the ridiculous and meaningless factors, and then the important ones.
Meaningless
- History: What the hell do the World Championships or previous Olympic match-ups have to do with this? One of the most overrated rated stats in sports are winning streaks that span years. Players, rules, philosophies, coaches all change. A win streak spanning 3 years is nice, but it has ZERO bearing on the next game.
- Fatigue: These players play back to back games their entire lives. It’s not football, where 6 days between games and 5 games is a big deal. Also, Canada didn’t exactly have to try hard against Germany. If anything, they gained confidence and energy, and managed to get some familiarity among themselves.
- Motivation: Every player has a reason to be here. Do you really think Canada wants it more because they’re at home? Of course not! Every player is on this team today becuase they have loved hockey their whole loves, and have put in some serious dedication to the sport. They are the best of the best, and they want to win regardless of the circumstances. Whether it seems like it or not, almost very pro athlete is a completely different breed from the rest of us, and they really do care. Four years from now, Canada will be just as hungry for gold as they are right now. Russia wants it just as badly now, because they haven’t won in 18 years, and a victory on Canadian soil would be sweet.
- Ovechkin-Crosby match-up: In the NHL, these guys have a much higher impact on their teams than they do in the Olympics. Are they the best players on their respective teams? Sure. However, there’s plenty of talent and leadership to go around on each squad. I think this angle is significantly overplayed by the media, but I think it’s mostly because of marketing. For casual fans, this is important. But hockey fans must realize that each team is pretty lethal even if these guys don’t have a good game. Neither team relies solely on them to win.
Meaningful
- Goalies: Each offense seems to be clicking, and each defense seems just ok. Thus, if either goalie has a poor game, he can’t expect too much help. Russia’s speed is too much for Canada to defend, and Canada is a lot more physical than anyone Russia had to defend.
- Puck Possession: Both teams have dominated possession and shot totals in each of their games. Their wins have come from constant pressure and keeping the puck in the offensive zone. Both teams are well suited for a quick transition game, but this isn’t something that they’ve had to do a lot of so far. Both teams have done a great job of stealing pucks before their opposition can get on the break, although I don’t think that will happen as much tonight.
- Shot selection: Each team has been a lot more successful when they’ve set up in front, and shoot from closer in. Perimeter shooting is not going to cut it. Shot totals are inflated because of this style of play. Both teams need to shoot from higher percentage area’s, mainly from the slot.
- Referee’s: I really hope these zebra’s are a non-factor tonight. They can avoid the controversy if they stick to one thing: less is more. Let the players play, don’t call the little chippy plays. I can’t imagine a worse scenario than a weak penalty call late in the third period of a 3-3 game. If something is questionable, and it doesn’t directly impact a great offensive opportunity, let it go. Someone tripped behind their own net? Let it go. Little bit of clutch and grab in the corners? Let it go. So far, most of the officiating has been pretty good, and I want to see that trend continue.