Steve Mason: The Flyers Ultimate X-Factor

Over the past few months Philadelphia Flyers fans have formed two camps regarding the 2014-2015 team. Some say that they will be so bad that they can take a run at Connor McDavid while others believe that they will be similar to the 2013-2014s team, battling for a playoff spot and potentially able to win a round in the post season. Why have fans become so polarized? It comes down to Steve Mason.

No matter which side of this debate one is on, we can all agree that the Flyers have a strong group of forwards and a lackluster defense. There is, and will continue to be, fierce debate over the play of Andrew MacDonald, but in the end all can agree that the future of the blue-line is brighter than the present. Most people understand that Claude Giroux is a superstar and that Jake Voracek is not too far behind. The strengths and weaknesses of the forwards and defense are generally agreed upon.

Ultimately, you can tell what someone thinks of the 2014-2015 Flyers by what they think of Steve Mason. The advanced stats crowd looks at Mason’s play in Columbus, understands that regression is to be expected, and assumes that his save percentage will plummet. His supporters believe that what Flyers fans saw last season was the “real” Mason, and he is capable of overcoming a horrendous defense and leading the Flyers to the playoffs.

How crucial is a goalie?

To answer this question, let’s look at two goaltenders from last season: Semyon Varlamov and Jonathan Quick.

The Colorado Avalanche were one of the worst possession teams in the NHL in 2013-2014. They will have some serious struggles trying to repeat their success, even with the progression of players like Nathan MacKinnon and Matt Duchene. How, then, did they make the playoffs in 2013-2014? They had a great shooting percentage, a little bit of luck, and they had Semyon Varlamov (with his .927 save percentage).

Their awful possession numbers caught up to them in the playoffs. Varlamov’s save percentage could not keep up, and he posted a .913 in the post season as the Avalanche lost in the first round.

The Los Angeles Kings were the best possession team in the NHL all season. They play an air-tight system and suffocate their opponents. Jonathan Quick only mustered a .915 save percentage during the regular season, but the Kings still managed to make the playoffs. His playoff save percentage was only a .911 (worse than that of Varlamov), yet his team won the Stanley Cup.

What this tells us is that over the course of a season, an outstanding goaltender can bail out a terrible team. However, in the long-run, the teams that have the best team will beat those who rely too much on goaltending.

A team that plays solid 5v5 hockey throughout the regular season is more reliable than a team that relies on goaltending and special teams. But I digress.

Does the defense effect save percentage?

It has been shown in multiple places that defensemen have little to no control over a goalies sv%. A goalie is going to save roughly the same percentage of shots against him no matter how many shots are thrown at him.

Therefore, a goalie like Quick can be labeled an ‘elite’ goalie even with a sub-par save percentage because the team in front of him keeps the puck so well that he faces very few shots.

Varlamov led the league in shots faced last season (2013 shots, 32/game), while Quick was 24th in the NHL (facing 1183 shots, 24/game).

Looking deeper at those numbers, if we multiply .927 by 32, we get 29.6 saves. Therefore Varlamov would have allowed 2.4 goals per game. When we multiply .915 by 24, we get 21.94 saves, or 2.04 goals per game. Over 82 games, that means that Varlomov allowed 30 more goals despite having a much better save percentage.

What all of this means for Mason

The Flyers will almost certainly be a bad possession team in 2014-2015. The loss of Timonen, combined with full seasons of Andrew MacDonald and Michael Del Zotto will not help the defense corps. I do not believe the Hartnell for Umberger swap was as lopsided, possession wise, as some say (due to zone starts, quality of teammates, etc. but that is a whole other blog post), but there is no denying that at its absolute best it was an even swap. The Flyers are still stuck with dead weight in Vincent Lecavalier.

With all of the question marks surrounding this team, the difference between Mason’s career save percentage (.907) and a repeat of last season (.917) could be the difference between a playoff team and a lottery pick team.

If Steve Mason were to regress to the way he played for much of his time in Columbus, posting something like .895 save percentage, the Flyers will most likely be a bottom 5 team. However, if he builds off of this past season and posts a save percentage in the mid to low .920s, the Flyers could be expected to be a playoff team.

It has been proven that the best way to evaluate a goaltender is by his career average save percentage. This is the reason for the immediate dismissal of Mason by most advanced stats proponents.

However, the way in which he was rushed into the NHL, and the situation that he was thrust into in Columbus could have had just as much to do with his horrid numbers as his actual talent. Remember, Mason was playing in the NHL at the same time in his career that Anthony Stolarz is at now. At the point when most goalies are refining their skills, Mason was just trying to stay afloat in the NHL. He seems to have moved on and has his head in the right place.

But, just because he has his head in the right place, that does not mean he can repeat his performance from a year ago, much less build on it.

In the end, I believe that Mason will have a good season. I predict that he will be about as good as he was this past season, sporting a save percentage somewhere between .918-.922. Therefore, I believe that Flyers will be a wildcard playoff team. Unfortunately, much like Varlamov this past season, even a very good goalie cannot save a below average team in front of him.

Flyers fans seem to be in agreement over the quality of their forwards and the lack of quality on defense. The X-Factor for this team will be the play of Steve Mason. Because it really could go either way.