Things Are Not Changing For Sean Couturier

This summer, many fans questioned the offensive potential of the Philadelphia Flyers prized young center, Sean Couturier. The questions seemed warranted. Couturier, who once had back-to-back 96 point seasons in the QMJHL, was held without a point in the Flyers’ seven game series against the New York Rangers last spring. He still has not scored more than 13 goals in a season at the NHL level, and questions are once again popping up about his offensive capabilities.

What these questions seem to always ignore is Couturier’s usage. It is easy to compare him to Brayden Schenn, or even the other forwards drafted in 2011. However, it is rarely an apples to apples comparison.

Since the early days of Couturier’s career he has been a ‘shutdown’ player. Some of the best in the business have a already called his defensive skills “elite.” His defensive skills have been contrasted throughout his career with other Flyers centers like Brayden Schenn, Daniel Briere, and Vincent Lecavalier.

Therefore, Couturier has always had skewed usage. While Briere, Schenn, and Vinny have been given offensive zone starts and easy competition because they cannot be trusted in their own zone, Couturier has had to start an abnormal amount of shifts in the defensive zone against the opponents stars. Therefore, offensive players like Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek, James van Riemsdyk and Scott Hartnell have not seen a lot of ice time with Couturier. They, instead, were put in positions to score.

This summer, Ron Hextall weighed in on this problem during an interview with BroadStreetHockey.com. Although he seems to understand the problem, his answer is not altogether satisfactory. He says:

"I think the best way to play defense is to have the puck. So yeah, ok, Coots starts in the defensive zone more, but there’s no reason his offensive numbers can’t go up. You have control of the puck. That’s the best way to play defense rather than chasing it all over the place. Again, Coots needs to command more of himself and I know Craig [Berube] is gonna command more of him.We can’t forget the fact that he’s still a young player and the fact that he knows his way around the defensive zone so well is terrific, and you love the fact, how unselfish he is and stuff. But again, there’s more there offensively and to say that he starts a lot of his shifts in the defensive zone, that’s no reason that he can’t score more."

Hextall has a point. The best way to play defense is to have the puck. He also seems to understand that Couturier has a lot of untapped offensive potential.

So things looked like they were going to change as the team prepared for this season. Couturier was slotted as the second line center, between Matt Read and Wayne Simmonds. Couturier has played with Read quite a bit over the past two years, but Read has also seen time as a top six winger. Instead of being saddled with line-mates like Max Talbot, Zac Rinaldo, and RJ Umberger, Couturier was going to get to play with two offensively solid players on what looked like a “scoring line.”

Well, we are 11 games into the season and things are not changing for Sean Couturier.

His even strength zone start percentage is 31.7%.  Zone start percentage is measured by dividing the number of OZ starts by the total number of OZ and DZ starts. Therefore, a player who starts 10 shifts in the offensive zone and 5 in the defensive zone would have a 66.67% zone start percentage, 10/(10+5). Despite his skewed starts, he is still finishing 45.3% of his shifts in the offensive zone.

Among NHL players who have played five or more games, his zone start percentage is near the bottom. He has the worst zone starts of any player averaging over 15 minutes of even strength ice time. The only players with even nominally similar ice time and worse zone starts are defensemen Erik Gudbranson (11:13 ES TOI/game, 28.1% ZS) and Stuart Percy (14:32 ES TOI/game, 30.9% ZS).

Couturier is averaging 2:14 of shorthanded ice time per game, 30 seconds more per game than any other Flyers forward. His power play time has gone up to 2:04/game from 1:16/game last year, but his lack of power play production in the early going has already led to calls for him to be kept off the ice during this offensively advantageous scenario. However, I believe that given time, Couturier will prove to be a valuable power play performer.

Despite these circumstances, Couturier has been relatively productive in the early season. All three of Couturier’s goals this season have come at even strength. Last season, he did not net his third goal until November 30th.

Things are not changing for Sean Couturier. They may not change until the Flyers can put together another line that can handle a fair amount of defensive zone starts. The Flyers have too many players, centers in particular, who they do not trust in the defensive zone. Change may not come until Scott Laughton eventually (and hopefully) establishes himself as a two-way NHL center. With another center who can bear the defensive zone burden with Couturier, we may see his offensive game blossom. Luckily, Couturier is only 21 years old. He has plenty of time to show what he can do.