Who Have the Flyers Beaten? The Telling Facts of the Future

By Andy Dudones | Dec 14, 2014

Not to trounce on the good vibes of a two-game win streak, or the added points in five-straight games, but who have the Flyers beaten so far? The answer, while alarming, doesn’t necessarily spell doom. But are the Flyers really improving?

Perspective

After downing the New Jersey Devils and the Carolina Hurricanes in their last consecutive games, the Flyers are riding just their third winning streak of the season. Saturday’s 5-1 throttling of Carolina gave them their third win in four outings, but against a team that’s tied with the Edmonton Oilers for the lowest point total (19) in the league.

Combined with New Jersey, the Flyers have put two wins together against a pair of teams that haven’t won more than two games out of their last 10. In fact, Saturday’s win, coupled with New Jersey’s loss to Dallas, drew Philly even with the Devils in the Metropolitan Division standings. And the Canes? Let’s just point to their current five-game losing streak.

So what, you ask? After all, aren’t you responsible for playing – and beating – who’s on your schedule, regardless of record?

Well, yes. That’s the whole point of this discussion.

While it’s nice to take care of business against the teams that are of lesser quality, the Flyers’ 3-6-4 record against opponents who currently hold a playoff spot doesn’t bode well for a team that’s trying to climb back into a playoff slot of their own. Philly’s last two wins have also upped their record within the division to 4-5-2, and 6-10-3 against the entire Eastern Conference.

Not good, but certainly not grotesque. Especially with a point streak that has been extended to five games. But that doesn’t solve their disastrous penalty killing unit, who’s 74 percent kill ranks next to last in the league, or their south of pedestrian 3-9-3 road record. And it certainly doesn’t account for the four missed points that the Flyers’ 0-4 shootout record has left behind.

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All four of Philadelphia’s shootout losses so far have come against playoff positioned teams. Losses to Montreal and the New York Islanders, along with two to Anaheim, are the difference between a .500 record against their tougher opponents, and the record that shows for real.

When it comes to teams they’ve struggled with as early as a season ago, the Flyers have shown little improvement. The orange and black have dropped their ninth straight regular season game at Madison Square Garden, while failing to win their first game at Nationwide Arena in Columbus since 2005. And after losing only five season series’ last season, the Flyers have only one winning record against the eight teams they’ve seen more than once to this point.

Good News

Not all is doom and gloom, though. After all, the Flyers have added seven points in a matter of a week. Furthermore, Philly’s six wins against teams that have 27 points or less accounts for over half of their wins. That means their five other wins have come against teams who are on the cusp of a playoff spot. But the positives don’t dry up there.

After nearly a month long drought in secondary scoring, the Flyers have scored 18 goals in their first six games of December. And while Craig Berube’s squad has heavily relied on Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek, only three of 15 skaters who have played in their last six games have failed to add points.

With five goals in six games, Wayne Simmonds is hot again. And Sean Couturier’s six-game point streak ties him in points (7) with Giroux for the monthly team lead. Even R.J. Umberger has chipped in a goal and an assist.

Speaking of Giroux’s seven points, we are likely to see a rise in production from the captain as well. Giroux’s 116 shots gives him the fourth most in the league. And when it comes to shooting percentage, his 6.9 percent standing is the absolute lowest among the NHL’s top 10 point scorers.

This tells us that with eight goals and 26 assists, Giroux is elite. He has the league’s sixth most points to prove it. And with Giroux’s 102.7 percent PDO percentage hovering around the 100 percent mark – which measures a player’s average luck – it’s likely he’ll continue to either keep his current pace of scoring, or see an increase.

PDO vs. Individual Shot Attempts, colored by Relative Corsi-For Percentage. (

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As you can see, Giroux not only leads his teammates by a mile in shot attempts, but has been “unluckier” than teammates such as, Voracek, Simmonds, Brayden Schenn, and Mark Streit.

Look at Couturier’s bubble as well. While his red color shows an unfavorable Corsi-For percentage, it’s irrelevant since he’s glued to the team’s shutdown line. But even with a six-game point streak, the 22-year-old is due for even more added “luck.”

When looking at the PDO percentages of Matt Read (97.5) and R.J. Umberger (95.8), the last six games could be the swing that the statistic measures. But if the Flyers have any ambition of a playoff run, they must continue to produce as the league’s third best power play unit. Their penalty killing and overall road play leave no room for error.

The Flyers will get a chance for their fourth “quality” win of the season on Tuesday as they welcome in Tampa Bay. And based off of everything we know, it’s bound to happen sooner rather than later.

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