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Having Fun With Goals Above Replacement: Part Two

By Brendan Canney

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Dec 18, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Flyers defenseman

Mark Streit

(32) clears the puck from in front of goalie

Steve Mason

(35) against the Florida Panthers during the first period at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

In the second and final part of my Goals Above Replacement series I take a look at the Philadelphia Flyers’ defense. You can find part one here.

For those in need of a refresher Goals Above Replacement is a relatively new metric produced from the minds at War-On-Ice that is pretty self-explanatory. For example, Patrick Kane had a total GAR of 13.72 this past season, which means he is worth almost 14 goals more than a replacement level player. A replacement level player for this metric is defined as a 3rd or 4th line player.

Now knowing that, in the chart below I have listed all Philadelphia Flyers’ defenseman who logged more than 300 minutes of ice time last season.

The Defenseman

GAR for each Philadelphia Flyer defenseman from the 2014/15 season >300 TOI

GREEN = GOOD / RED = BAD

So what do we see…

  • According to GAR Mark Streit was the best defenseman the Flyers had and it really wasn’t even close. He was good for 6 GAR which placed him in the top 40 of defenseman in the NHL. Considering his role as the point man on the Flyers’ vaunted PP unit his Shot Rate For isn’t a big surprise.

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  • Poor, poor Coburn. Having to carry around the anchor otherwise known as Nick Schultz really affected his metrics. Consider this, Schultz had a CF% of 46.9 when away from Coburn and his CF% with Coburn was 49.7. When Coburn was away from Schultz he had a CF% of 51.1 playing against some of the NHL’s best forwards.
  • I’m still not entirely sure why Carlo Colaiacovo isn’t on this team anymore. Earlier this offseason I wrote a piece detailing all the reasons why I think the Flyers should retain him. Cheap. Effective. And did I mention cheap? In all honesty I would have rather signed him and not Michael Del Zotto.
  • Speaking of Del Zotto, I wrote about how the Flyers paid market value for him considering his production and playing time. GAR seems to hate him though. It’s been well documented that MDZ is pretty poor when it comes to shot suppression and well, stats don’t lie. It will be very interesting to see who he will be partnered with this season.

LOL AMAC

  • For all the fat jokes that Luke Schenn receives, he was one of the most effective defenseman the Flyers had last year. With the exception of Colaiacovo, Luke was the only other defenseman that had a CF% better than 50 at even-strength.

Woo!

With the addition Radko Gudas and Yevgeni Medvedev the Flyers actually have some depth at the blue-line this year. A significant problem this team had last season which unfortunately led to them signing Nick Schultz to an extension.

With this new founded depth it will be interesting to see what first-year head coach Dave Hakstol does with his defensive pairings. Does he break up Luke Schenn and MDZ? Would he pair Medvedev with Streit? Our own Ryan Walsh has some ideas on that.

All data mined from War-On-Ice.

Next: Philadelphia Flyers 2015 Defenseman Preview

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