The Philadelphia Flyers have a few lineup changes prepared for Game 4, trying to stem the tide of the Washington Capitals and their power play
Game 3 of this series between the Philadelphia Flyers and Washington Capitals was ugly. Very ugly. Putting aside the off-ice drama, let’s talk hockey.
The Flyers now face a potential sweep at the hands of the best regular season team in the NHL. At 5v5, the play of this series has actually been pretty even. In terms of possession, the Flyers are ahead in score-adjusted Corsi (shot attempts), 120-104. Where it really counts on the scoreboard, however, the Caps have outscored the Flyers 4-1 at 5v5.
The simplest answer for that has been goaltender play. Braden Holtby has been simply fantastic. Early this season Holtby had a chance to run away with the Vezina, but he cooled off in the second half. If that gave the Flyers hope that Holtby might be beatable in the playoffs, that hasn’t happened. Holtby has been formidable in this series.
Steve Mason’s story is the opposite. Steve Mason carried the Flyers into the playoffs, playing probably his best hockey of the year down the stretch.
This form hasn’t carried over into the playoffs. There were no complaints about Mason’s performance in game 1, but Mason allowed a truly awful and back-breaking goal in game 2. He didn’t help his case any in game 3, allowing in a very stoppable shot by Alex Ovechkin at a pivotal point in the game. He just hasn’t been very good in this series.
The Philadelphia Flyers will now be giving Michal Neuvirth a shot in net tonight. Neuvirth has been very strong all season, and now he will get a shot against his former team and against the former goalie partner he once infamously criticized. The plan to bring in Neuvirth makes sense to give the Flyers a shot in the arm, but it would be incorrect to say this is why the Flyers trail 3-0 in the series.
The real culprit has been the Flyers penalty kill. It has been terrible. The Caps have scored 8 power play goals. No other team has more than 4 in the playoffs. The Caps power play is humming along at a ridiculous 47.1% mark these series. The Flyers power play is 0-13. That tells you most of what you need to know as to why the series is 3-0.
Neuvirth might be able to give the Flyers better goaltending than Mason provided, but that is just one piece. Neuvirth’s main area for improvement over Mason will be finding sightlines on point shots, as Caps’ defenseman John Carlson has scored a power play goal in every game thus far. The rest will be up to the Flyers skaters to slow down the Caps rate of 105 unblocked shot attempts per 60 minutes on the power play this series (their rate was 76 in regular season).
Lastly, coach Dave Hakstol has tweaked the Flyers top two lines. Brayden Schenn will be promoted to the top line, while Jakub Voracek will move down to the second line. Notably, this sets the Flyers’ lines to the exact combinations we suggested here back before game 2. So that sounds like a good plan here!
The Flyers hope these changes aren’t just “shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic.” The Caps earned the best record in the NHL in the regular season for good reasons, and they have seen Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson, and Braden Holtby at their best in this series. Regardless of the Flyers chances to storm all the way back in this series, anything good must begin tonight in bouncing back from a game 3 that the Flyers are eager to put behind them.