Philadelphia Flyers F Matt Read had the least productive year of his career this season, but advanced stats tell a different story.
On the surface, Philadelphia Flyers forward Matt Read had a poor year. He scored only 26 points, a career low for a non-strike season. This is coming off what was supposed to be an unusually poor season one year ago, when he scored only 8 goals.
When he had that bad season last year, a lot of people pointed to injuries. He seemed slower than usual, and eventually Read admitted that he was playing through injury issues. Even in this weakened phyiscal condition, “Reader” at least got to the 30 point mark. There was good reason for Flyers fans and management to expect a bounce back this season.
Whether or not the bounce back season occurred is up for debate. By the simplest measure, points, Read sunk even lower this season. This chart shows a player who is clearly trending down in his development.
It is somewhat troubling that not only did his goal scoring rate remain as bad as last season, but that his assists totals took a dive this season. His advanced metrics, however, tell a different story.
As shown above, Matt Read was one of the Flyers’ best possession forwards this season. His possession numbers were better than stars like Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek, and this was accomplished while shuffling around the lineup and having few opportunities with top teammates.
As measured by Corsi (team shot attempts while the player is on the ice), Reader actually had his best season yet.
The team shot rate while he was on the ice was significantly higher than any previous season, while the rate of shots against were his best since his rookie season when he scored 24 goals and was a Calder candidate.
The million dollar question for Read is why didn’t his production follow his Corsi rates. The simple answer is shooting percentages. Both Read’s individual shooting percentage, as well as the team shooting percentage when he was on the ice, were unusually low this season. This chart shows the downward trend in the Fenwick (unblocked shot attempts) shooting percentages of Matt Read individually, and of his teammates while Read is on the ice.
This is a very discouraging trend for Matt Read, but it’s hard to say how worried Read and the Flyers should be. Read himself has recently acknowledged the disparity between his possession percentages, and his falling rates of actual production. Searching for answers, Read reasoned that he was mostly a perimeter player this year, playing with other perimeter players. There is probably something to that, as it’s very difficult to score consistently from the outside.
There is where shot quality metrics could tell us a lot. Unfortunately, shot quality is still a new and unsettled analytic variable. New sites such as www.Corsica.Hockey have made some exploratory dives into shot quality, and give us a few metrics. The idea here is that you can judge the shot location on the ice, plus factor in the situation (power play, rebound, rush, deflection…) and derive an “expected” shooting percentage, and consequently “expected” goals.
By these novel techniques, there’s not much deterioration of Read’s individual shot quality, or the general shot quality when he is on-ice.
This chart shows that individually, Read’s shot quality at 5v5 this season is right back to where it was his first 2 seasons in the league, when he was his most productive. Additionally, his teammates’ shooting chances when Read is on the ice have been of consistent quality his entire career.
Put it all together, and there are reasons for optimism. Read has clearly been an effective possession player, and the shot quality metrics imply that those possessions numbers aren’t just a total mirage. Maybe the big decline in his assists numbers were simply the puck not going in this year.
Matt Read is entering a new phase in his career. He is now 29 years old, so he’s probably never going to be as quick as he used to be. For a small player like Read, declining quickness is critical factor. Read scored 4 shorthanded goals 3 years ago, yet he hasn’t scored a shorthanded goal in either of the last two seasons. The Philadelphia Flyers may not see that version of Matt Read 1.0 ever again.
Matt Read 2.0 can still be an effective two-way forward, responsible defensively and a positive force in the possession game. The advanced stats say he still performs like a 15-20 goal guy, good for 35-40 points. If those stats are correct and predict Read’s future, that’s just fine for a forward who has 2 more years on his contract at a cap hit of $3.625 million.