Philadelphia Flyers Season Review: D Evgeny Medvedev

A look back at the season of another likely dead-man-walking, Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Evgeny Medvedev.

Evgeny Medvedev came into the season as a big question mark. A 33-year old rookie who spoke no English, everyone expected there to be a transition period. He had to transition to the language, and to the smaller ice and north american game.

He had the skill set to do so. The Philadelphia Flyers signed Medvedev as a free agent on the basis that he had plenty of pro experience in Russia and in international competitions, and that he had the type of game the Flyers defense corps currently lacked. He had good size, smooth skating, and could move the puck.

Early indications were good. Medvedev was putting in an honest effort to make all the necessary adjustments to his new country, team, language, and league, and coach Dave Hakstol seemed to like him. Indeed, Medvedev started the season in Hakstol’s lineup.

At that point, Medvedev was only entrusted to a third pair role. In that role, he always produced excellent shot-based possession numbers, as shown in the chart above. For all this good, however, his role did not expand. As the season progressed, there was plenty of shuffling around of the Flyers defense among 8 or 9 players, and Medvedev ended up battling borderline NHL defenseman Brandon Manning.

Over time, Medvedev slipped out of the Flyers lineup. It wasn’t always clear exactly where Medvedev went wrong from a statistical standpoint--most of his numbers remained strong. Although he was playing relatively easy competition, his shot suppression rates were among the best on the team.

Looking at Medvedev’s on-ice goal rates shifts the picture slightly. While Medvedev remained on the positive side of the ledger, he was on the ice for an inordinate amount of totals goals scored by both teams.

Measured by on-ice goal volume, Andrew MacDonald is the only player close to Medvedev. That’s also a bit skewed by the fact that MacDonald was a late season call-up and only played at a time when the Flyers offense was performing better than early in the season. Additionally, MacDonald almost always played with the offensively dynamic Shayne Gostisbehere.

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The best explanation for Medvdev’s vanishing ice time has to revolve around reliability. Although 33 years old, he was prone to the “rookie” mistake. He would occasionally wilt under a tough forecheck, or make unforced errors in the defensive zone. In the long run, Medvedev’s talents would cancel those out, but coaches hate factors they can’t control or predict.

As he lost his spot to Manning, it’s noteworthy that Manning was the most “boring” defenseman on the team. His on-ice goal rate was the lowest of the 8 defenseman shown above. Furthermore, Manning has paid his dues through minor league hockey and could give the coaches a predictable, and sometimes scrappy, performance.

One other interesting indicator that works against Medvedev’s performance this year was on-ice penalty differential. Despite fewer total minutes than his defensive mates, Medvedev’s negative penalty differential rate stands out.

This would also speak to the reliability issue. Often times, penalties taken indicates a mistake has been made, or someone on the ice has gotten caught out of position. The volume of goals going in and penalties being called against the Philadelphia Flyers when Medvedev on the ice paints the picture of a high-risk, unreliable player.

Medvedev has obvious skills on the ice. His season ending stat line of 45 games, 4 goals, 8 assists, +5, and a +4.1% 5v5 Corsi relative to his teammates show a player, that on the balance, is a positive force for his hockey team. It’s unfortunate that his persistent vulnerabilities lost him the trust of the coaches, as Medvedev took a permanent seat on the bench down the stretch of the season.

Next: The Case for Ghost to Win the Calder Trophy

Forget about Medvedev’s age for a moment, and he looked like a rookie. Perhaps his transition to NHL hockey didn’t come as quickly as coach Dave Hakstol would’ve liked. Either way, Medvedev is now a 34-year old free agent. It’s unlikely he’ll find any team willing to give him the $3+ million the Flyers gave him last summer, but he could be a real nice find next season for a team looking for some talent at the back end of their defense, presuming they can swallow his occasional slips.

It is almost certain, however, that team will not be the Philadelphia Flyers.

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