Philadelphia Flyers Season Reviews: F Brayden Schenn

Philadelphia Flyers forward Brayden Schenn delivered a huge second half this season. Was this the breakout performance everyone was waiting for?

It was on the verge of becoming an annual tradition. Every summer, some Philadelphia Flyers fans and writers would explain that *this* was the year Brayden Schenn would break out. He would finally deliver on the promise of being a top junior player and top-5 NHL draft pick.

The problem is, every time you say something like that, the statement becomes less convincing. I, in my infinite wisdom, wrote a piece last fall that there were few indicators that Schenn was on the cusp of a scoring break out.

This is one time I’d be happy to see my predictions crash and burn.

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Looking back, the season did not start out at-all promising for Schenn. He found himself toiling on the 5th line in the pre-season. Some good preseason performances on the wing got Schenn back into the every-day lineup, but even then he was getting few chances with the Flyers’ top players.

It looked like Schenn was on his way to another mediocre season, when things dramatically changed. Schenn’s brother Luke was traded to LA, and Brayden’s production took off. At the end of calendar 2015, Schenn had 15 points in 34 games. In calendar 2016, Schenn exploded for 44 points in 46 games. This led the Flyers, significantly outscoring stars Claude Giroux (38 points) and Jakub Voracek (31 points).

I doubt that the trade of his brother really was a cause of this explosion, but it’s an interesting exercise to find what really changed for Schenn. As a starting point, it is worth noting that Schenn has never been a driver of possession at the NHL level, and this did not change this season.

The lack of growth in possession is pretty surprising given Schenn’s big jump in output. When you see such a divergence, the natural thing to look at is shooting percentages. Indeed, the spike in shooting percentage is dramatic.

For the second chart, I separated the first and second half of this season (dividing line being January 1, 2016). What this shows is that a large amount of Schenn’s production explosion is attributable to an amazing shooting percentage that is probably not reproducible.

Another metric that shows the same effect is PDO. Sometimes referred to as a measure of luck, a PDO of under 100 shows a player is getting unlucky with shots and saves when he is on the ice, and over 100 implies that he is the beneficiary of lucky breaks in shots and saves. By this statistic, Schenn’s PDO this season overall was 102.9, which is very high.

The numbers above tell us that we need to be careful about the predictive effect of Brayden’s Schenn breakout half -season going forward, at least at 5v5. Of course Schenn also broke out on the power play, scoring a career high 11 power play goals.

His power play numbers tell a similar story. Schenn’s power play shooting percentage jumped from 11.11 a year ago, all the way up to 20.00 this season. Again, that is a number that is very, very high, and unlikely to be reproduced.

I should also add an eye test to the numbers, however. As Schenn played with more confidence in the second half, he became more involved in the Flyers power play. He still doesn’t quite fill the high slot role as Scott Hartnell had mastered, but there is some evidence of solid contributions on paper. Schenn earned a pretty good assist rate in power play situations, despite the fact that the team shooting percentage when he was on-ice decreased from last season. Any “luck” would not have been responsible for that production.

Schenn’s season gives the Philadelphia Flyers a lot to think about. His production in the second half was truly top-rate, but it was made possible by lofty shooting percentages that usually don’t last.

Schenn deserves a lot of credit for growing this season. He fought through some uphill climbs, and played with a lot of confidence this season when the puck started going in for him. He also brings a considerable amount of energy to the lineup, even if he gets a little over zealous at times.

In my opinion, Schenn showed what kind of NHL player he can be this season. His lack of positive possession effects reveals limits to his game, but he can be a productive contributor when placed in the right role. I’ve always thought he has a knack for popping up in scoring areas in the offensive zone, so long as other offensive talents do most of the puck management for him.

Next: Brandon Manning Season Review

Schenn is a restricted free agent this summer, and his salary negotiation could be fascinating. Hextall is taking his time on it, as well. Schenn will certainly get a raise as a reward for his growing contributions to the team, but it would be unwise to expect a repeat of his nearly point-per-game second half of this season.