More on Robert Hagg and how we evaluate rookies

Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Robert Hagg is a rookie, but his performance is still worth analyzing- especially when the numbers further establish one of Dave Hakstol’s shortcomings.

Earlier this week, I wrote an article entitled “Is Robert Hagg becoming the new Andrew MacDonald?” In retrospect, its title was probably a bit too inflammatory for it’s own good; suggesting a fan-favorite rookie is similar to one of the most controversial players in recent Philadelphia Flyers history isn’t the best starting point for a meaningful discussion.

Still, the similarities are impossible to ignore. Like MacDonald before him, Hagg has become a Dave Hakstol favorite without the blessing of advanced statistics. His conservative play and defensive soundness in theory make him a good partner for a more aggressive defenseman, but he simply isn’t helping the Flyers generate enough quality shot attempts to make up for the ones he’s giving up.

One of the most common responses to the story was: “He’s just a rookie, let him develop a little before criticizing him.” This response has merit. It’s important not to rush to judgments when it comes to rookies, and calling Hagg a bust already would be waaaay too premature.

Philadelphia Flyers

But whether you’re discussing a grizzled vet or a fresh-out-of-Lehigh-Valley rookie, if a player hasn’t played well, he hasn’t played well. Saying he’s “just a rookie” doesn’t immediately render any and all analysis irrelevant. For NBA fans, that’s how you end up mercilessly defending Lonzo Ball when his performance so far has been undeniably disappointing.

The eye test tells us Hagg is doing some good things on the ice. He’s smart, he’s physical, he’s defensively responsible. Advanced stats allow us to see beyond the eye test, to see if those good traits are translating into positive outcomes. For Hagg, they haven’t yet. Exiting the zone cleanly and contributing on offense are major weaknesses of his current game.

Unfortunately, the Flyers have already displayed a questionable reliance on the eye test when it comes to evaluating their players. Borderline NHL defensemen have received too much ice time (Andrew MacDonald) and some of the Flyers’ most talented young players have been unnecessarily benched as a motivational tool (Travis Konecny and Shayne Gostisbehere).

The issue with Hagg’s earning Hakstol’s confidence is not just about Hagg. A rookie playing like a bottom-pairing defenseman isn’t inherently terrible. The larger problem is that the Flyers’ high usage of Hagg appears to be part of a fundamental overvaluation of a certain kind of player- the responsible, conservative, but ultimately less-effective skater.

Next: Flyers defeat Blackhawks 3-1 at Wells Fargo Center

Every coach (and blogger, and fan) has his or her blind spots, and Hagg appears to fall right in the middle of Hakstol’s. And even if Hagg is rookie, that shouldn’t stop us from evaluating his play and highlighting particular skills to keep an eye on as he moves forward in his career.