The Flyers Have the 23rd Pick In This Years Draft. Can They Find a Gem?
Some people will insist that the draft is data and science, like finance or physics. Others insist that it is art, they can just see the greatness in the player. Seasoned observers think it is a little of both and a whole lot of luck. I am hoping that the Flyers and Chuck Fletcher are surrounded by four-leaf clovers.
Need an example, let’s take a look at the 2014 draft. Aaron Ekblad was taken first overall by the Florida Panthers. He has had a solid career thus far and has played more games than any other player taken in that draft. Do you know who has the most goals? David Pastrnak has 180 goals and was taken 25th by the Boston Bruins. The Avalanche took Conner Bleakley two picks earlier, and he has not played an NHL game. A few other players of note:
"Brayden Point went at 79Viktor Arvidsson went at 112Kevin Labanc went at 171Ondrej Kase went at 205Our very own Oskar Lindblom went at 138."
Don’t you think the Islanders, who took Michael Dal Colle 5th overall, would gladly take any of the hidden gems? Was their art bad? Was their science flawed? I think they were unlucky, it happens to every team at some point.
The Flyers get to pick twenty third in the first round. Here is a list of who the experts like at 23.
Elite Prospects, Future Considerations: Jacob Perreault (RW)
Perreault is an offensive winger. The son of the great Yannick Perreault, he is not overly fast, or big but has big-time skill. His stand out attribute is his wrist shot. It is cobra quick and laser-accurate. After studying his goals (there were many) his wrister is really frighteningly impressive. The number of times he went high (just under the crossbar) to the short side, just over the goalie’s shoulder, whizzing the puck right past the ear was unbelievable. If he has space and the puck he will find a hole and get it there at warp speed.
After reading the initial scouting reports on Perreault I was not a fan. After watching his games, I now definitely am. I think this guy will score at the next level. I am not sure if he will be able to generate a ton of chances by himself, but he will be a nightmare on the power play or next to a playmaker. Perreault is not my guy, but I would be pretty happy if the Flyers got him at twenty-three.
ISS: Justin Barron (D)
Barron is a right-handed defenseman who has good size and is an excellent skater. He battled injuries, a blood clot last season. That kind of injury scares me in adults, let alone for someone who is eighteen. His health should be the Flyers’ first worry.
Barron has an NHL frame and NHL skating ability. The fact that he is a right-handed shot is a plus as well. What I do not like is his feel for the game. Often time he looks like a cat that got itself stuck in a tree, with an “Ok, now what?” look on its face. He skates the puck into trouble a little too much for someone that does not have high-end creativity. Some players think two or three steps ahead, Barron is thinking at the moment. If it is me, I wait for the later rounds for Barron.
Mckeen’s: Jake Neighbors (LW)
Neighbors is a winger with the Edmonton Oil Kings and was one of the most instrumental forwards on their team. He is competent offensively but not really flashy. He has good vision and consistently makes plays that open up good offensive chances. Neighbors is also physical, although only 5 foot 11, he is solid and will throw his weight around. Scouts think he is a complete player who plays a 200-foot game.
I see a complementary player. He is versatile and can change style depending on his linemates or what he is instructed to do. He actually reminds me of the Flyers own Michael Raffl, but with better vision, and lacking Raffl’s ability for the occasionally spectacular. I think he eventually becomes a plus third-liner in the NHL, with the ability to move up and down the lineup. For me, I need a little more upside for a first-round pick, but he would be a rock-solid/steal second-round pick.
Craig Button: Seth Jarvis (RW)
Jarvis is an energetic center with great hands, decent speed/quickness, and plenty of filthy moves to get pucks behind the keeper. He was used on the powerplay and as a penalty killer. There are a lot of things to like, but none of them jump out as elite.
I liked his energy, I liked his effort, and all of his tools are fine, however, I do question how well his game will translate. On a stacked Winterhawks team I saw him scoring primarily in two ways. First, on breakaways, the kid has world-class moves and is already good enough for NHL shootouts.
Jarvis also scored a ton of goals receiving passes as he was camped out in the slot or on odd-man breaks. These shots were not contested, he had lost his man or otherwise broken free. This is not a knock per se, but I do not think those type of chances will be as available in the NHL as they were in the WHL. Someone will take Jarvis in the first round, but I would pass, he looks like a good complimentary player for top-flight talent.
Corey Pronman: Braden Schneider (D)
Schneider is a big, mobile righthanded defenseman. He has a good pace to his skating with, or without the puck. He is not overly creative but is solid bringing the puck up ice and eluding the forecheck. He can also pick out passes as he moves through the neutral zone. He is a capable defender but is not a shutdown player in his own end.
After watching some of his film, he reminds me a bit of the Flyers’ Travis Sanheim, though not as good a skater or as offensively in tune. Defensively he is better than Sanheim was at this age. Sanheim is a second pair player in the NHL, Schneider seems to be a poor man’s version. If I were the Flyers I would pass and look for a more dynamic talent in the first round.
ISS EU (12):Marat Khusnutdinov (C)
Since ISS separates the EU and North America I took the number 12 prospect on each list. Khusnutdinov while 12th in the EU rankings falls to the mid-thirties overall. If you try to find him on film he really sticks out, he has some great skills and creativity, he scores some highlight-reel goals. He accelerates well, can turn, and uses his edges extremely well in tight spaces. He creates in the offensive zone and sends passes into high danger areas. He also has a good an accurate shot. His other standout trait is he is always the smallest guy on the ice.
Despite his size, he fights for pucks, absorbs checks, and does not shy away from physical play. The book lists him at 5-foot-10, to my eyes he looks about 5-foot-7.
Khusnutdinov is a boom or bust prospect. He has enough skill that he can score in the NHL, but I am not sure he will be upright long enough to get the chance. At his size, he will not be a center in the NHL, but he could be an explosive winger. He is elite at maneuvering in tight space, but I am not sure that will matter once a nasty NHL defenseman bodies him. I see him as an intriguing second-round pick that has a huge upside and a huge risk. The Flyers need a game-breaking scorer, but this may be too small a package.
ISS NA (12): Dylan Holloway (C/LW)
Holloway is a two-way center that played for the Wisconsin Badgers last year. Despite having a lot of high-end talent last season, the Badgers were disappointing, Holloway was as well. Holloway was never able to find his groove offensively. It could have been due to less talented linemates or usage, but Holloway was expected to dominate the NCAA competition. He fell well short of that expectation.
In Holloway, I see a player with very good speed and good work along the boards. He is able to win battles for the puck consistently and to hold players off as he controls the puck. What I did not see was an abundance of scoring or playmaking. I blame this more on the coaching staff than I do on Holloway, who looked like he was an army of one with very little help. I actually would like to see more of his games, but it looks to me like Holloway is a good, not dynamic, player who could not elevate lesser talent around him. His game is unselfish and relies on teammates to help him after he makes the difficult play. I would take him at twenty-three if he was available. I think the Flyers would too.
Walt’s Pick: Jan Mysak
Scouts and services are split on Mysak. Some see him at the end of the first or the beginning of the second, others see him in the top 10. I hope that he slips to the Flyers. Mysak is a smallish two way forward with plus offensive awareness and passing. His strength is in the way he plays, his motor is never off, he is constantly in gear impacting the game. That motor combined with his offensive skill makes him very dangerous as he proved with 25 points in 22 games with Hamilton once he came over from Europe.
I see a player who is strong on the puck, a good passer, and forechecker. He looks more like a playmaking winger and less of a sniper but will pick up dirty goals because of his work around the net, competing in the tough areas. Mysak’s skill and effort will allow him to play on the powerplay, the penalty kill and be a pest at even strength. I think he will continue to improve as a scorer and maybe a Pastrnak type of steal.