Flyers Playoff Player Review: Kevin Hayes

From Questionable Free Agent Signing to Dominant Playoff Center, Kevin Hayes has Proven Himself to The Fans, The Flyers and the League

If there ever was any doubt by the Flyers faithful, and there was, if Kevin Hayes signing was worth it, the 2020 playoff should put that to rest.  All Hayes did was make any line he was on hard to stop, score big and timely goals, kill penalties and lead the Flyers in playoff scoring.

Kevin Hayes is pretty freakin’ good Case closed.

I look back to thoughts on the Hayes signing (my last bold prediction review), and even as someone who was lukewarm to the idea,  I was pretty far off the mark. I looked at Hayes purely from a roster composition and contract prospective, namely that he will give the Flyers a big  solid third line center at above market rate.

This totally discounted Hayes as a player. Now one poll from NHL.com has Hayes as the sixth best center in the league, this maybe a bit high, as I am not sure he is even sixth best in the division. But Hayes did prove himself a legitimate top line center in the regular season and restated it emphatically in the playoffs.

Hayes was really good in the playoffs. The expectation was for Hayes to be a solid center that would provide depth on special teams and help pitch in on offense as a secondary scorer.  Secondary scoring was going to be key for the Flyers and their offense by committee game plan.

Hayes would finish second on the team with four goals and first in assists with nine. This would total 13 points, again a team high.  This is far better than just pitching in, and these impressive numbers get even better the more you dig into the details.

Hayes scored all 13 points at even strength. The center did get 38 minutes of powerplay time, fifth most amongst Flyer forwards, but given the team’s powerplay struggles, it’s not surprising he collected no powerplay points.

Looking deeper into the numbers, Hayes had a +8 even strength goal differential, more stunning there were only 8 goals against.  Hayes had a 2 to 1 goals for ratio. In the playoffs players that were on the ice for at least 10 goals for, only six had at least 2 to 1  GF ratio. That included players like Kucherov, Gourde and Palat in Tampa, and McKinnon in Colorado. Not bad company for Mr. Hayes.

The advanced stats crowd will point out that his corsi percentage was not great, just over 46% for 5 on 5.  This on the surface seems like a valid criticism, however a deeper look reveals a couple of interesting items.  First, despite the corsi deficit, if you look at shots for and against, Hayes breaks 50%. This begs the question if a shot attempt does not require the goalie to stop it, is it really a dangerous play?

The second, and less philosophical, point is one of the Flyers’ style. When leading, the Flyers would retreat and try to weather the onslaught by playing sound positional defense and leaning on goalie Carter Hart.  This looked to be by design, to give up shots that would be easy for Hart to stop.

When leading, Hayes 5 on 5 corsi dipped to 33 %.  When tied it jumped to 52% and when trailing it jumped to 56%.  It seems clear to me that this was a team, and a man, who were altering their play to sit on a lead an run out the clock.

Aside from Carter Hart, Kevin Hayes is the primary reason for the Flyers’ run into the playoffs.  Hayes scored like a first line player, while keeping his own end buttoned down.  He played big minutes on the penalty kill.  He also was part of the powerplay second unit…. well no one is perfect.

As Alain Vigneault start to scramble line as the playoffs move deeper, Hayes was a solid and consistent offensive threat, even while getting treated to new line mates every other game. Hayes was always the guy making the play to get the Flyers a big goal.

He was great, and had the Flyers gotten more from the top of the line up and the powerplay, there may have been a virtual parade in Philadelphia.