The Philadelphia Flyers and New Jersey Devils battle it out for the first time this season on Tuesday night in New Jersey. If you’re betting tonight’s game, take a quick look below at the odds with analysis and picks.
Philadelphia Flyers (3-2-1) @ New Jersey Devils (3-1-1), 1/26/21
Puck line-
Flyers: -1.5 (+170)
Devils +1.5 (-205)
Total goals scored (over/under set to 5.5)-
Over 5.5: (-125)
Under 5.5: (+104)
Moneyline-
Flyers: (-152)
Devils: (+130)
(all odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
In a clash of two teams performing in non-sustainable fashions, ironically the only certainty we have about puck drop tonight, is that the result is going to be wildly unpredictable.
The Devils, who many had pegged to become the whipping boy of an East division loaded with talent, are off to a very solid start in terms of results. Scooping up seven points through their first five contests, New Jersey aims to make the most of an abbreviated season where each game matters just a bit more.
This early success stems from a few factors, but the most notable is the absolutely blistering start from the goaltending tandem of Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood. The pair has started off the season with an eye-popping 5v5 save percentage of .977, which is especially staggering when the league average is checking in at .922.
While sample sizes remain small and a number like that is largely unsustainable, it is rather difficult to discredit such a start, and it must be respected. This elite level of goaltending is also absolutely necessary when you are getting outshot as much as New Jersey is, who are already checking in at a -42 shot differential. The only teams getting outshot as drastically as the Devils are early on? Anaheim, Vancouver, and naturally, the Philadelphia Flyers.
The second factor contributing to this somewhat surprising Devils start is the excellent play of a tandem of skaters — former #1 pick, Jack Hughes, and rookie blueliner Ty Smith.
Hughes has been driving play for New Jersey, already posting five even-strength points with an additional two coming via the man advantage. Coach Lindy Ruff has been catering to his star as well, by starting him in the offensive zone on 66.7% of his shifts. He is constantly handling the puck, and always a threat to make something happen. His play is almost reminiscent of watching Barzal dance around the Flyers in the playoffs last year, watching each pass or rush with bated breath, and seeing a stark contrast in shifts where Hughes is on or off the ice.
Smith is also doing a lot of good for New Jersey. Already with 5 even strength points as well, the former first-round pick is off to an electric pace. His point share actually exceeds that of the aforementioned Hughes, and this duo has been as integral to the success seen by New Jersey as the two goalies.
As far as our boys in the orange and black are concerned, the on-ice product that we’ve seen so far has been largely unacceptable. There can be no fingers pointed at any specific players, because perhaps the biggest contributor to early-season woes can be chalked up to the injury bug.
On the bright side, however, we will be seeing Ghost on the top pairing alongside Ivan Provorov. These two were absolutely outstanding not that far into the past, mainly because they both provide a skill set that meshes well. Ivan Provorov is able to anchor things down and cover some of Ghost’s defensive shortcomings, and this increase in freedom allows Ghost to skate and move with the confidence and decisiveness that he needs to be great.
While this is not an instant fix or cure, it is a step in the right direction for a defensive corp that recently lost a key component in Myers.
Brian Elliott will be getting the nod between the pipes tonight, and the veteran has looked excellent despite the chaos often in front of him. Stopping 53 of the 55 shots he’s faced between his relief of Hart and a stellar shutout against Buffalo, the Flyers will need another strong performance if they want to take some points back to the hotel with them.
A big key tonight is going to be the offense stepping up in a big way. With the defense in disarray, every chance created needs to be a dangerous one. If you accept that you’re likely to get outshot yet again, (barring Ghost being a bigger factor than I could have predicted) getting a victory will require capitalization of the chances given. Odd man rushes, special teams, high danger areas — all will need to be operating smoothly.
Even though the Devils have had similar struggles with shot differential, nothing the Flyers have done gives me enough confidence to say we won’t need another above-average game from Elliott to get a win. It almost feels like you need to either bang home three/four goals minimum, or have a goalie stand on his head to get a victory when playing the way that Philly is playing. How likely either of these teams tonight remains to be seen.
With all of that being said, here are my picks for tonight.
Moneyline- New Jersey Devils (+130)
I absolutely cannot stand having money against my team (which is why I tend to avoid nonplayer props for Flyers games) but it is difficult to go against + odds with the form that the Flyers are in. I do think if Elliott, Ghost and the top 9 do their thing tonight a much-needed win could be in order, but I would not bank on it.
Player Props- Kevin Hayes (-143) and Jack Hughes (-112) to record 1+ point
I gave a bit of a blurb on Hughes and his hot start earlier, and it would come as no surprise to me if these odds were flipped. Hollywood Hayes leads the Flyers in both points (8) and shots (14) so far, and his new-look line provides a ton of size and puck possession alongside JVR and Voracek. While -143 is not going to be allowing you to pay for your kid’s college, I would love to see Hayes toss another tally on the goal sheet tonight.