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Corsi Analysis: Flyers Win Possession, But Are Punished by Captials

By Walt Gebelein

Apr 13, 2021; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Capitals left wing Carl Hagelin (62) celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal on Philadelphia Flyers goaltender Brian Elliott (37) in the first period at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 13, 2021; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Capitals left wing Carl Hagelin (62) celebrates with teammates after scoring a goal on Philadelphia Flyers goaltender Brian Elliott (37) in the first period at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Flyers won the  the possession metrics but were spanked by the Capitals in a game that was effectively over after the first period. The 6-1 score line was generous as the game was likely not even that close.

First Period

CF:15 CA:20 CF%: 42.86%

The Flyers seemed to be in trouble right from the opening faceoff, with some of the forward lines looking sluggish. The Capitals were, by contrast, absolutely flying. It was scary to watch and it did not take long for the Caps to strike. The Caps smelled blood in the water and kept up the pressure, and the scoring.

After the second powerplay goal of the night put the Flyers down 3-1 thing deteriorated. Philadelphia could not manage a chance over the last two minutes and would end the period out chanced by five.

While the 43.86% CF% is not good, it also does not tell just how wide the margin was between the two teams. The Flyers looked like they were being devoured alive by a school of piranha and were close to helpless in the defensive zone.

Second Period

CF:11 CA:8 CF%: 57.89%

The second period had little drama as both teams seemed to be in cruise control.  Anthony Mantha would score the period’s only goal, beating Elliott, who did not have a great night, from the high slot.

The Flyers continued their listless play, and didn’t threaten the Capitals much beyond some chances on the power play.

Third Period

CF:22 CA:9 CF%:70.97%

The Capitals looked to bleed the clock and leave the game in good health. The Flyers may have been trying to build momentum for their next effort, though they were unable to score.

The Flyers were able to secure a huge possession advantage, but it meant little as the game was out of reach and the Caps were content to do little more than defend their own end.

Corsi Winner

PHI JVR, Couturier CF:15 CA:7 CF%:68.18%

On a night where most of the forwards appeared to be asleep, Couturier and van Riemsdyk came to play tonight and delivered. Their line was good for most parts of the night. Their fine effort was wasted by a poor team effort.

Corsi Loser

WAS C Nic Dowd  CF:6 CA:16 CF%: 27.27%

Dowd did not have a great possession night, but he was a beast on the forecheck all night.  He was able to pin the Flyers deep in their end repeatedly, and while not generating chances, he was able to prevent them from leaving their zone cleanly, if at all.

Conclusion

CF:48 CF:37 CF%:56.47

Tonight’s game’s stats will be put into the database and the Flyers 5 V. 5 will be entered into the database and they will have an 11 chance advantage. This metric without the context of the game would be consistent with a close game, that the Flyers likely would have won.

In reality, any of the possession stats after the first 20 minutes are probably meaningless, since the Flyers saw to it that the game was effectively over by then.

After being near the bottom of possession charts for the first month of the season, the Flyers are now the 11th best in the category.  Their rise up the chart has coincided with a clear down turn in their play and their results. I prefer winning to possession.

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