Who will the Flyers protect in the 2021 Expansion Draft?
With the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft moving in fast, Chuck Fletcher and Alain Vigneault have a lot to think about before June 21st. Back closer to the beginning of the season, I released an idea of who the Flyers will protect in the 2021 expansion draft.
As all Flyers fans know, this season has not been ideal as we have seen many players regress. However, some have improved, leading to tough decisions for Fletcher and Vigneault this off-season.
Before we get into who the Flyers will protect though, a quick reminder of the 2021 Expansion Draft rules:
- Seattle must take a player from each NHL franchise
- No team will have more than one player chosen
- Seattle must take at least 14 forwards, 9 defensemen, and 3 goalies
- Las Vegas is exempt from the expansion draft
- Teams may only protect 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, and 1 goalie OR 8 skaters and 1 goalie
- Players on the first or second years of their rookie contract are safe
- Unsigned draft picks are safe
- If a player has a No Movement Clause (NMC) the team must protect them unless they waive the NMC
- The team must expose 2 forwards under contract in 2021-2022 who have played either in 40 games this season or 70 in the last two
- The team must expose 1 defenseman under contract in 2021-2022 who has played either in 40 games this season or 70 in the last two
- The team must expose 1 goalie under contract in 2021-2022 or a 2021 restricted free agent that has already received a qualifying offer
Easy to understand right?
Before we get into the protected players some quick notes.
Firstly there are a handful of players that are automatically safe from taking a one-way trip to Seattle due to still being on their entry-level contracts. Some of the notables are Joel Farabee, Morgan Frost, Wade Allison, Cam York, Bobby Brink, Zayde Wisdom, and Tyson Forester. They are all automatically protected without the use of a protection spot.
Secondly, both Kevin Hayes and Claude Giroux will be safe because they have no-movement clauses in their contracts. Unfortunately, they do take up 2 of the 7 forward spots, which leaves the question: Who else will the Flyers protect?
Forwards
At the beginning of the season, the Flyers’ offensive depth (on paper) made it really difficult to figure out who they would most likely protect. As the season went on, it became clear that the Flyers might not even have 7 forwards worth protecting. So who will be staying?
1) Claude Giroux
Giroux continues to be one of the Flyers’ best players even at age 33. Even without the NMC, Giroux would have been protected.
2) Kevin Hayes
Hayes has had a rough season, but again who hasn’t. I expect the Hayes of 2019 to come back next season. Again, he is automatically protected by the NMC.
3) Sean Couturier
Couturier has been one of the most underrated players in the NHL this season. Missing games early due to injury certainly didn’t help, but he is still scoring at just under a PPG rate! Last season’s Selke Trophy winner and the Flyers best player is an automatic protect.
4) Scott Laughton
At the NHL trade deadline, no one knew if Laughton was going to be shipped out for picks, or signed to a long-term deal. With Chuck Fletcher locking Laughton for up for 5 years, they are committed to having him on this team long term. That contract extension was the sign of automatic protection in the expansion draft.
5) Travis Konecny
Konecny hasn’t played as badly this season and people would tell you. He’s still on a reasonable deal for a player of his type; the Flyers won’t give up on the young scrappy wing.
6) Oskar Lindblom
Lindblom is just about finished his first season since coming back from cancer. He obviously has performed at a low level given what he had gone through but was still able to be somewhat productive. A full offseason and recovery should help him get closer to the player we saw last season.
7) Nolan Patrick
Yes, I can see the face you are making right now but hear me out. Patrick is an RFA so if Seattle were to take him, they would have his signing rights meaning if a team wanted to gamble on him (depending on how much they sign him for) Seattle would get either a pick or just match the salary and gamble on him playing well. It would be in the Flyers’ best interest to protect him to:
1) have a better chance of getting rid of a bloated contract
2) have the Flyers keep Patrick’s RFA rights for the draft pick, or the sudden turn around in his game.
NOTABLE UNPROTECTED
- James van Riemsdyk
- Jake Voracek
Both of these players are top 3 in points for the Flyers. Both of these players, however, have massive contracts that need to be gotten rid of. If either of these players get taken, don’t be shocked if Fletcher goes for a big name this offseason… *cough cough* Dougie Hamiltion *cough cough*
Defense
Earlier this year, the Flyers’ defensive protections were practically a lock. Now, with the way the defense has played this season, it’s a little less certain.
1) Ivan Provorov
Yes, Provorov had a down year this season, but it was mainly because Alain Vigneault has been rotating the top pair like it’s a revolving door with a 7-year-old playing inside it. Provorov is still very good and will be an automatic protect.
2) Phil Myers
Again another player with a down year, but a 6’5 RHD with speed doesn’t come around often. He looked like he was blossoming at the end of the 2019-2020 season. Again with the revolving door on defense he never was able to fully settle in. He will be protected and most likely the second pair right defenseman next season.
3) Travis Sanheim
I wanted to put Shayne Gostisbehere here just because of the way he’s rebounded this season, plus Travis Sanheim has been absolutely horrendous for the Flyers this year; however, as with the Nolan Patrick protection, the same logic falls for Sanheim here as he is an RFA at the end of the season and hopefully makes it easier to get rid of a bloated contract.
NOTABLE UNPROTECTED
- Shayne Gostisbehere
- Justin Braun
In all honesty, these two have also been arguably the best defensemen on the ice for the Flyers this season, meaning if this is how the forwards and defensemen are protected, the Flyers will be leaving 2 of their top 3 point scorers and 2 best defensemen (this season) unprotected. Wild.
GOALIES
1) Carter Hart
This is a no-brainer. I don’t even need to elaborate further.
Notable Unprotected
- Felix Sandstrom
To not break the expansion draft rules the Flyers will either have to leave RFA Felix Sandstrom unprotected WITH a qualifying offer already given out, or give Alex Lyon/Brian Elliott an extension before the expansion draft. The latter seems unlikely leaving Sandstrom available to snatch away.
Who Gets Taken From The Flyers?
1) Shayne Gostisbehere
The youngest player, highest ceiling, and most reasonable contract. It almost seems like a lock that Gostisbehere is headed to Seattle unless…
2) Jake Voracek
A player top 10 in points all-time for a storied franchise? A player who has had a letter on his jersey for a long period of time? A player who is still top 3 in points on his team up at the age of 31? Seattle might see THAT Jake Voracek and bring him in as veteran leadership for a Golden Knights-like “win now” move.
3) Justin Braun
Braun is a very solid stay-at-home d-man that just does the small things right. Not extremely talented but a vet with playoff experience on a smalled contract would be a good pickup for the Kraken.
4) James van Riemsdyk
I honestly believe that JVR has the least amount of trade stock on this list, which is why I believe he’ll be the least likely to leave. Yes, he has had a decent season but he has gotten extremely cold as of late and is still one-dimensional. Fletcher would absolutely have to throw a draft pick in with JVR for the Kraken to take him.
AND THE KRAKEN TAKE…
Jake Voracek. It makes the most sense for both sides. The Kraken get a veteran with leadership experience who still puts up points, while the Flyers get $8.25M in cap space to fix the defense. I do expect Fletcher to throw in a draft pick to guarantee that Voracek is in Navy, Teal, and Red next season, but this outcome would be what’s best for both sides.