The Case Against Trading for Seth Jones
Before I get started, I want to offer my prayers and sincerest condolences to the family and teammates of Mattiss Kivlenieks. It’s tragic to see such a promising young life cut so tragically short, and I speak for Flyers fans and everyone at Broad Street Buzz when I say, we’re with you and we’re here for you. To all our readers out there, please be careful when using fireworks.
The old saying “There’s no such thing as a free lunch” is one of the most trustworthy sayings out there today. As any freshman business major could tell you, absolutely every transaction requires some level of work or sacrifice, and comes with the expectation of some kind of compensation in return. This saying is especially true for NHL GMs, who all instinctively know that in order to get a good player, they must give up some kind of valuable asset in return. So then, every NHL trade becomes an evaluation of risk vs. reward, and in the case of the Philadelphia Flyers and Seth Jones, the risk may not be worth the reward.
In his 580 game NHL career, Jones has posted 65 goals and 221 assists but has a -25 plus/minus rating. He’s an elite scoring threat from the blue-line who mostly plays solid, mistake free defense and his 6’4” 210 pound frame would bring some much needed physicality to the Flyers’ back end. When on his game and surrounded by the right supporting cast, he’s every bit a top-pair defenseman, but he has shown some troubling signs as well.
Although he was an absolute workhorse for the Columbus Blue Jackets last year—averaging 25:14 of ice time and playing all 56 games–like many of his teammates, Jones didn’t put up particularly good numbers. His offensive numbers were solid as he scored five goals and added 23 assists, but his defensive numbers were poor as he ended up with a -18 rating, 43 giveaways and a 48.4 corsi rating. Admittedly, he played on a Columbus squad that finished with more standings points than only three teams and posted a -50 goal differential, but he still failed to rise above the play of his (admittedly awful) teammates; not an encouraging sign for the guy who’s being hailed as the savior of the Flyers’ defense.
Most of the trade rumors circling Jones involve the Flyers giving up some combination of the following:
- a first round draft pick,
- Philippe Myers,
- either Joel Farabee or Morgan Frost
- and possibly even Travis Konecny.
Replacing Myers with Jones on the blueline is a no-brainer, but it could still leave you down a man on defense if Seattle ends up taking Shayne Gostisbehere. That may be a risk you can live with, but what would a trade for Jones do to the forward group?
Well, if the Kraken decide to take either James van Riemsdyk or Jakub Voracek, it would leave your once vaunted forward depth suddenly looking shallower than Stewart Lake (It’s a lake in my hometown that’s drying up, don’t worry about it). Losing one of them along with Farabee would leave you short two of your top five scorers from last year on a team that’s already dying for a pure goal scorer. Even the loss of Morgan Frost would be difficult to swallow as he is probably your best option to take the #3 center job this year; and I haven’t even mentioned the fact that you’re giving up a valuable first round pick too. That’s a massive price to pay up front to improve your back end, and frankly, the downgrades to the forward corps might end up negating the improvements on defense.
None of this even covers the cap consequences of acquiring Jones. Jones is currently signed through the end of the 2022 season at 5.4 million, but in order for the Flyers to make a move, they would most likely need a deal in place with a significant raise. At the moment, the Flyers have just over $13 million in cap space heading into next year, but they also need to re-sign Carter Hart and make a decision on Travis Sanheim. Those two contracts, combined with the $7-8 million Jones will likely command, would pretty much eat up their cap space, although more money will become available depending on who Seattle takes in the expansion draft.
For the time being though, any move for Jones will likely leave you down at least one of your top three scorers, a second pair defenseman and a first round pick, leaving you with not enough cap space to sign a much-needed pure scorer, or possibly even a backup goalie.
And then there’s the biggest problem. Philly already has a famous Seth in Sixers’ guard Seth (the better brother) Curry, adding another would violate the ancient laws of the Dark Order of the Seth and threaten to tear the entire Universe apart at the seams! In order to resolve this, an epic battle-royale of all Seths in the Delaware Valley—myself included–would need to be called to determine who the true Seth warrior is, because there can be only one! And after all the death, destruction, and general societal upheaval we went through in 2020 (not to mention that awful Sixers loss at the end of June), I don’t think Philly is quite ready for an all-out brawl between the Dark Lords of the Seth.
Although there’s a strong case for adding Jones, based on both the quality of assets the Flyers would have to give up–as well as the fact that I don’t particularly want to have to duel Seth Jones in a Highlander-esque fight to the death–Perhaps the doing so wouldn’t be the best idea.