LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - NOVEMBER 21:Jakob Chychrun #6 of the Arizona Coyotes reacts to his penalty call during a 2-1 win over the Los Angeles Kings at Staples Center on November 21, 2021 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
In a Philadelphia Flyers season that has tested even the most faithful of fans, some solace could be found that they are not sitting in the basement. No, the basement is the domain of a team like the Arizona Coyotes, a hockey club facing an onslaught of off-ice questions, and an on-ice product that has bottomed out so far this season.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman mentioned as one of his 32 Thoughts that the Coyotes were actually pondering moving on from young defenseman Jakob Chychrun. It is something that indicates a full rebuild for the Arizona team, and presents a tantalizing piece of trade bait for the other 31 teams in the league.
Obviously, anyone who has been on Flyers Twitter knows that big trade bait pieces explode into a series of hot takes, but the Chychrun news does earn itself discussion due to Friedman’s pedigree. But naturally any big trade raises a thousand questions. What’s the cost? Is he any good? Would it help? So, to sift through the muck a tad, I’m here to break it down.
Jakob Chychrun is a 23-year-old, left handed defenseman who had his breakout in the 19-20 season, and has been Arizona’s #1 D-man for several years. More than responsible in his own zone, and fantastic in the opponents, he has emerged as one of the most impressive young defensemen in a time where there is no shortage of talent. Chychrun is also far from a rental, having three more years on his contract at an incredibly reasonable 4.6 million dollar per year. It is that something that, should he be allowed to flourish, could contend for one of the better deals in the league.
Naturally the next question someone would ask is “what would he cost”? Well, based on verified reporter Bill Metzer’s thoughts, Chychrun could cost Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim, and likely a first round pick, if not additional compensation. Now, admittedly that is a big ask, but breaking it down piece by piece may not make it seem so bad.
Oskar Lindblom, Travis Konecny, and Travis Sanheim, Philadelphia Flyers (Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports /
Konecny has been a big time Flyer when it comes to personality these past few years. However, the 2015 24th overall pick has been dropping stock since his incredible 2019-20 season that saw him as the next Flyers true blue scorer. His 19-20 season has seemed to be an outlier, with him failing to match the 61 point in 66 game pace in both of the succeeding seasons, not being particularly close in either.
Konecny had an unsustainable shooting percentage of 17% in that 19-20 season, and while his 21-22 shooting percentage of 6.8% could likely be less than his ceiling, he has showed no signs of being able to match his pre-bubble play in the 19-20 season.
The past few seasons have been interesting for Travis Sanheim. Being a seemingly massive part of a horrendous 20-21 campaign, advanced stats saw that Sanheim actually played well above his “eye-test” metrics. And that his poor play resulted more from horrendous goaltending than his poor defensive play.
While Sanheim’s previous season drew much ire from the fanbase, statistically, he had the least support from his goaltenders when it came to expected saves than any other goaltender in the league. This season, he has quietly been the team’s best defensemen, competing with Justin Braun believe it or not, despite the fact that his offensive game has been far less consistent.
That leaves the first round pick. Straight up, people overvalue first rounders when it comes to hockey. Picks obviously shouldn’t be traded for peanuts, but once picks find themselves dropping lower into the first round, they become infinitely more risky than in sports like American Football.
While it may vary by draft, on average, once a pick drops out of the first half of the draft, the odds that they play more than 100 games in the NHL drops beyond 50%. The reason I say this is to make the point that picks made outside of the top 10 often trend more towards being a gamble than they do towards being guaranteed top end talent.
When you look at it from a general standpoint, Jakob Chychrun would walk into a Flyers roster immediately becoming the best defenseman on the team. Yeah, the team has a “wealth” of left-handed d-men, but the struggles of players like Myers and Morin have showed that developing players takes a great volume of risk.
Chychrun doesn’t need to be developed. He is ready to play at the NHL level. A player like Konecny may feel like a big loss, and may admittedly hurt a team struggling to score. But Chychrun is better than Sanheim by a great measure, and there is no guarantee any mid first round pick, which is what Flyers fans should expect with this roster, could even touch Chychrun’s talent.
I’ve seen people say that Sanheim and Konecny would be an easy done deal, but adding the first makes it a horrible deal. Konecny, in reality, is a throw in. Sanheim is struggling offensively and the first round pick could be anything. It could even be a 23-year-old elite defenseman signed at a cheap cap hit for three more years.
