What could a healthy Ryan Ellis mean for the Flyers?
Among all the negativity and frustration, there was a glimmer of positivity as the Flyers headed home for the off-season. And that came in the surprise availability of defenseman Ryan Ellis. Ellis, who had only been limited to just four games, spoke for the first time since November 13th.
After meeting with Chuck Fletcher to discuss his season, Ellis sat down with the media to eventually provide clarity on what had been ailing him since the beginning of the season. And it wasn’t exactly the easiest thing to explain. It took a moment for Ellis to open up about it, first saying that he wanted to keep some of it private.
But when asked again, it appeared that Ellis wasn’t exactly sure how to explain what had caused him to miss so much time. He described it as a “multi-layered” problem which woukd explain the reason it took so long for a diagnosis to come.
”“It’s, I guess, the complex of the whole pelvic region, more or less. It’s hard to pinpoint everything.”
Within the last month or so, doctors were finally able to come to a consensus on what the root of the problem is, which appears to be multiple issues in the core region. This goes along with what Kevin Hayes said in his availability about Ellis having an injury that may have been in the same area, but no the same injury itself.
Ellis, as well as his doctors, feel they have a strong plan in place that will get the veteran defenseman back on the ice for the Flyers. Surgery won’t be necessary as Ellis noted that nothing seemed to be broken enough to necessitate a procedure.
He expressed genuine relief and excitement to finally know what was going on. And he did admit that he possibly made things worse by trying to come back for that game in November. But there is a strong belief that come training camp, Ellis will be on the ice. And he could not be anymore ready for that.
”I just want to play here. I want to be part of the solution here. I think I can really help out this team. My family loves it here. My kids love it here. If I were playing, this would be heaven for me. The only reason it is not is because I’m not playing.”
Considering there were rumors that there was a disconnect between Ellis and the team, it sounds like he very much put those to bed with the amount of excitement he expressed in being a part of the organization. Ellis went on to say that coming to Philadelphia was the most excited he had
Over the next month, Ellis will begin to ramp things up with his workouts in the gym. A few weeks after that, his goal is to get back on the ice. The real test will come in July and August when he expects to significantly ramp everything up in hopes of being ready for a September training camp.
So hoping that all goes well for Ellis, what could this Flyers team look like with him on the backend full time? For starters, it could be exactly what Ivan Provorov needs.
In Ellis’ four games this season, he was almost exclusively paired with Provorov. The two skated 54:40 of even strength ice time together. Ellis also skated with Keith Yandle (9:55), Travis Sanheim (2:02), Justin Braun (0:49), and Nick Seeler (0:42). The latter four, obviously, aren’t a big enough sample size and won’t be where Ellis ends up anyway. Not that it bares mentioning but Braun was traded before the deadline and Yandle is likely retiring, though he likely wasn’t coming back anyway.
For the sake of this, we can only look at Ellis’ minutes spent with Provorov. It is still hard to gauge what these two can become based on a sample size that is still likely too small. But it gives us a starting point on what a pairing with those two would look like.
According to Natural Stat Trick, the two had a 47.25 CF% and a 45.16 FF%. Despite getting slightly outplayed and outchanced, they out scored their opponents 2-0 while on the ice together. Both of those goals came in the opening game of the season against the Vancouver Canucks. The first goal, scored by Joel Farabee, was set up by both Provorov and Ellis.
Of course, their perfect GF and SV% isn’t sustainable and can’t be looked at too closely in this instance. They were only on the ice for 26 shots against so, once again, the sample size is much too small to draw a rational conclusion from.
To give us a good idea of what Ellis may look like in a top pair role, we can look at his last season with the Predators. Now, we have to preface with one thing. Ellis saw a majority of his ice time with Roman Josi. The Flyers, at the moment, don’t have a defenseman on the same level as Josi. But these stats can simply show us how he faired in that kind of role.
The two had a 56.61 CF% and drove play 55.99% of the time. While on the ice together, the team outshot opponents 214-174. They were slightly out scored 12-16, accounted in their 42.86 GF%. But their other numbers show a pairing that was largely working well together. One can say that Josi helped elevate his play, but it can also be said that Ellis helped elevate Provorov as well.
Now back to the Flyers and adding in the even strength minutes with other players, Ellis broke close to even with a 50.43 CF%. He was driving play 48.10% percent of the time and he had an xGF% of 40.60. And when you look at the stat sheet in terms of points, he was putting together a good pace.
“I mean, my stats speak for themselves. Four games, five points.” Ellis joked when asked about how to evaluate his game.”
Okay so that isn’t a sustainable pace either. But it can show that Ellis was acclimating well to a new team and a new system. Alain Vigneault was the coach at the time so we don’t know what things may look like in a Mike Yeo coached system. Though, we likely won’t find out as he’s not expected to be the head coach again next season.
The Flyers will almost certainly have some changes on the backend. But they likely don’t need to go the free agent route for that, at least not for a star. Cam York will get a strong opportunity to make the team out of camp. Ronnie Attard and Egor Zamula will also get chances, though they may start in the AHL to further develop.
The team could also go a similar route to what they did this season and bring in a cheap veteran for depth purposes. Kevin Connauton looked like he was in for a bigger role towards the latter part of the season before his injury. The team could bring him back on a cheap deal to sure things up.
In the end, we won’t truly know what the Flyers will look like with a fully healthy Ellis until next season. The stats suggest that Ellis himself can fit in well with the team and that a pairing with Provorov was working out. Now we just have to hope that the off-season rehab and training goes well for Ellis.
Philadelphia does not want to try and have to piece together their defense once again. They have bigger things to worry about.