Ivan Provorov is one of the more complex Flyers on the roster. Is he good? Is he overrated? Is he a good defender or is he more offensive minded? Not being able to tell what you have in him is not a good start to this conversation. After six seasons, Provorov should be much less of an enigma than he is.
He was drafted by the Flyers in 2015 with the seventh overall pick. He would make his big league debut two years later. He registered six goals and 24 assists and would finish ninth in voting for the Calder Trophy. Still, he had his ups and downs as rookie defenders tend to have. I still remember seeing him in his first nationally televised game. Patrick Kane made a move on him, deked him out, Provorov fell down, and Kane easily scored on the first shot of the game.
In his second year, Provorov had his best season, statistically, as he racked up 41 points and had a +/- 17. He played the way the Flyers had hoped when they picked him so high in the draft. But he took a step back the following season with career lows in points and +/-
The following season, Provorov was paired up with veteran defender Matt Niskanen. The two countrymen instantly connected and became a strong defensive pair. They would help guide the Flyers into the playoffs going into the COVID bubble. Provorov had his best year since his sophomore campaign and it looked as if that defensive pairing would be stable.
Then Niskanen retired. Since then, Provorov has looked lost. This past season, he posted a career worst -20. With Niskanen, he scored a career high seven power play goals. This past year, only one. There are times he looks as if he is hesitating to chase after the puck. There are times he plays a little reckless. He needs a steadying influence like Niskanen had given him. This is troubling.
Reasons to Trade Him
Defense is at a premium across the league. Provorov does have some talent. But he can be a liability. He is not, I repeat NOT, first line defender quality. He is capable and young. These are things that could make him an intriguing trade piece.
You can still sell high on him. You probably can’t get a first rounder for him, but he could be grabbed for some middle picks or a decent veteran. Maybe he could be packaged to get a high level prospect for a team in a win-now mode.
Reasons to Keep Him
Defense is at a premium across the league. It’s hard to move someone without a backup. Maybe pairing him up with Ryan Ellis, who is healthy, would be what he needs. Perhaps these two can become a dominant pair up on the blueline.
The Flyers also have an unfortunate past of giving up on young players before they take off: Patrick Sharp, JVR, Sergei Bobrovksy, Vaclav Prospal, etc. The last thing they need to do is trade him and then he becomes an all-star somewhere else.
Final Verdict
A lot about Provorov’s game is smoke and mirrors. He’s a decent defender, but not dominating. He also has shown a frustrating lack of general improvement in his career. When paired with someone strong, he is strong.
But a veteran of six years shouldn’t have to rely solely on a strong partner to be a good player. You are supposed to lean on them, but not have to be reliant on their strengths to compensate for your liabilities.
Provorov is still well regarded and he is young. There is someone out there who may overpay for that. If that is the case, Chuck Fletcher should pull that trade off as soon as he can do it.