Should The Flyers Explore The RFA Market?

Over the last few decades, every sports fan has become quite familiar with the term “free agent”. In the NHL there are two types: unrestricted and restricted. For most of us, we understand the unrestricted free agents (UFA). These are the players who are no longer bound by a contract and can sign anywhere they choose. However, most teams shy away from restricted free agents (RFAs). Why is that? Let’s look into the history of RFAs and how the Flyers have had a part in them over the years.

So, an RFA is a player who has had three years of service and at least 80 games played (28 if a goalie). As a result, they tend to be younger players, but by rules can’t be older than 27. They have to not be under any sort of contract with their parent team. This doesn’t mean they are not signed to a team; just that they haven’t signed some sort of qualifying contract. Most of these tend to be rookie level deals.  They also have had to have at least one previous contract expire. As long as one, or multiple of these apply, the player can become an RFA.

This year, the Flyers have a few players who qualify for an RFA type deal. Among them include: Owen Tippett, Wade Allison, Morgan Frost, and Tanner Laczynski.

I mentioned earlier that most teams don’t really go after RFA’s. Why is that? Well, it’s a two part process. The first thing you do is make an offer to a player. A team has 10 days to match it. So, if the Flyers were to try to snag Matthew Tkachuk from Calgary, they could make an offer…let’s say at six years for $85 million. If Calgary wants to keep him, they sign him and that’s that (more on this in a bit). In fact, some teams may use this against divisional/conference rivals to increase their cap hits. If Calgary does not match, Tkachuk is now a Flyer.

But it’s also not that easy. How much you offer would determine how much you have to give up. So, in the case of Tkachuk, the Flyers would have to cough up, for a $14 million contract, four 1st round picks (yikes!) Up to $10 million is two 1st rounders, a 2nd rounder, and a 3rd rounder. Up to $8.5 million (Flyers cap territory here!) is one pick each in the first three rounds. $6 million gets you a first rounder. Below that is staggered between 2nd and 3rd round picks with no compensation for a player under $1.4 million. So, is the person worth it? They better be for that price!

In their 54 year history, nobody has tried to poach any of the Flyers young stars. Since 1986, when the RFAs started, 43 players have had offer sheets given to them. Of those 43, only 14 were not matched. Of those 14, four were of a lower value and no compensation were offered.  Eight others resulted in trades instead of draft pick compensation.  Future Hall of Famer Scott Stevens was snagged by the St. Louis Blues from the Washington Capitals at the cost of five first round picks.

Most recently, the Montreal Canadiens and Carolina Hurricanes have been involved in a highly amusing tit-for-tat over RFAs. In 2019, the Habs tried to snag up and coming star Sebastian Aho with a five year $42 million contract, thinking the notoriously cheap Canes wouldn’t and couldn’t match it. They were wrong. Fast forward two years, Carolina offers first round pick Jesperi Kotkaniemi a one year deal for $6 million. It was an offer the cash strapped Canadiens couldn’t match.  Not only this, but the Hurricanes announced the offer on twitter in French and for the same yearly amount as the amount given to Aho using the same press release Montreal had used in their attempts to get Aho. Now that is some high level trolling!

Kotkaniemi cost the Canes their first round and third round picks in this year’s draft. All this for a player who scored a career high 12 goals this year. Now Kotkaniemi is still only 22 years old and may have a bright future ahead with his eight year, $38 million deal. Is it worth it? Time will tell. Kotkaniemi is also the first person successfully signed since the Oilers pried Dustin Penner away from Anaheim in 2007 at the cost of their first three picks.

Now, for the Flyers, they had two attempts signing an RFA. The first was for Tampa Bay Lightning Center Chris Gratton in 1997. Gratton was coming off a season where he scored 30 goals with 32 assists. Flyers GM Bobby Clarke couldn’t wait to get a hold of him and signed him to a five year, $15 million contract. The cost would’ve been four 1st round picks. Instead, Clarke offered Legion of Doomer Mikael Renberg and young defender Karl Dykuis back to Tampa in exchange for those picks.

Expectations were high for Gratton who would’ve been expected to be a center/winger along with captain Eric Lindros, Rod Brind’amour, Joel Otto, Mike Sillinger, and Vinny Prospal. However, Clarke had felt that Gratton would become one of the top scoring threats in the league and put a lot of pressure on him. In Gratton’s first year, he would score 22 goals and a career high 40 assists. But that wasn’t enough for Clarke. Midway through his second year, he would be traded with Sillinger for Daymond Langkow and Renberg. Gratton would play 15 years in the NHL, but never again topped 20 goals or 50 points for a season.

The Flyers then tried to sneak Shea Weber away from the Nashville Predators in 2012. Paul Holmgren offered Weber a 14 year, $110 million contract. To this day, it is still the richest offer sheet ever offered to a player. It was expected that the Flyers would walk away with Weber, who after seven years was quickly establishing himself as the best defender in the league. He would also have been able to pick up the slack with Chris Pronger no longer able to play due to concussion related issues.

The Predators shocked the hockey world when they matched the Flyers offer. Holmgren had put up a bid so high, many thought the cash strapped Preds would be be unable to match it. Five years later, Nashville would trade him to Montreal for P.K. Subban. As of 2022, Weber, while still under contract, may never play in the NHL again due to injuries. It’s interesting to look back at this and consider that his 10 year contract would’ve been over this year. How different could the Flyers history have been?…..sigh

So, with the Flyers, they are expected to have somewhere between $6-$8 million depending on if they make any trades or buyout any contracts. There are a few players the Flyers could fetch if they were to make an offer. Patrik Laine and Matthew Tkachuk would be real prizes if the Flyers could obtain their services. They are also expected to cost the team at least $7 million; which if you remember from earlier would cost the Flyers their first three picks in next year’s draft.

Minnesota’s Kevin Fiala could cost the Flyers about the same, if not a little less (for a 1st and 3rd rounder). Pierre-Luc Dubois, Brock Boeser, and Jesper Bratt are other forwards who would cost the Flyers, at the bare minimum, a first rounder. Adam Boqvist, a defender from Columbus, might be able to be had for a low level pick. Kasperi Kapanen, whose father Sami played for the Flyers and was a highly desired pick in 2014 (Flyers took Travis Sanheim that year), might also be acquired in this fashion from the Penguins.

So would it be worth it? Well, as with anything in sports and life, you can only tell from looking back. If you can get a good return on the investment, then it is worth it. Would 10 years of Weber have been worth four first round picks or trading away key assets? If Weber held the Stanley Cup aloft a parade float on Broad Street, would we be asking that question?

Most teams don’t like to pilfer from other teams in this fashion, but sometimes it works out. We’ll just have to wait and see what Chuck Fletcher is up to.