A Trip Around the Metro Division: How Is Everyone Else Doing?
The 2022 draft is over. Teams are gearing up for the mad dash that free agency brings. A good way to examine how the Flyers are going to attack this offseason is to also look at what their division rivals are facing. Who’s looking strong? Who could be in trouble? Where do the Flyers stack up with them?
Let’s take a walk through the division and see how the Flyers divisional opponents are looking after the draft.
Carolina Hurricanes (54-20-8 1st Place in 2021-22)
PROJECTED CAP SPACE: $19 million
Carolina has been the cream of the division the past two seasons. Depending on how this offseason goes, they could be in jeopardy. However, this team, lead by coach Rod Brind’amour, has shown an ability to rebound. Last season they lost Dougie Hamilton to free agency, Morgan Geekie to the Seattle Kraken, and traded away Calder Trophy runner up Alex Nedeljkovic. Everyone thought they’d take a step back, and yet they had their best franchise season ever, by record.
This year, they face a daunting challenge. The Canes had no first round pick, as they lost it as compensation for taking Jesperi Kotkaniemi from the Montreal Canadiens. Four of their seven draft picks are Russians, so who knows if they will be able to come over any time soon.
The team also has 11 UFAs this year. While most of them are depth pieces, they have a few that could hurt this team if they play elsewhere. Vincent Trocheck is quietly becoming one of the best second-line, two-way centers in the game. Nino Niederreiter, a speedy winger, has been a great scorer for this team over the last few years.
Max Domi brings some depth and a physicality that Carolina has missed over the last few years. Ian Cole has been a steady influence for the blueline this year, and could be missed greatly since the Canes traded away Tony DeAngelo. Derek Stepan, while his best years are certainly behind him, provides some stability as a fourth line center.
Ethan Bear and Martin Necas are their top RFA’s. It is possible someone may try to poach them. It is possible they could be trade bait. Carolina is hoping to extend their contracts, but these young players could be attractive to some other team with deep pockets.
Carolina’s biggest priority is trying to keep Trocheck and Niederreiter in red and black. They still have enough cap space to lure a top free agent (rumors are they may kick the tires on Evegeni Malkin). If anything else, they may want to stop the goalie carousel they’ve been on the last few years and find someone permanent.
They have built a team that has great chemistry and plays well with each other. They are going to want to keep that going. If they lose out in the free agency market, they have enough prospects to swing a trade or two. This is a big offseason for the Canes. If they can keep their top players in house, they could dominate this division for years to come. If not, a rebuild could be coming soon.
New York Rangers (52-24-6 2nd Place in 2021-22)
PROJECTED CAP SPACE: $10 million
The surprise of the division this past year, the Rangers came very close to making it to the Stanley Cup Final. They feature a young stud goalie and a group of sniping skaters. The Rangers did not have a first round pick this year as a result of a trade with Winnipeg. Three of their six picks were defenders.
The Rangers also have most of their players signed, so this is a team that will retain stability for a while. They have no major contributors who are RFAs, so they should be safe there.
As for free agents, they have nine players hitting the market. Former Flyer defender Justin Braun is one of them. Braun, as we know is a pretty reliable defender, but not a top tier one. Still, I wouldn’t mind getting him back and I can assume the Rangers feel the same. However, they are limited by cap space. Outside of the depth pieces, they may try to re-sign forwards Ryan Strome, Andrew Copp, and/or Frank Vatrano. But in doing so, they may have to move someone.
It could be that the Rangers may let all of these players walk in order to land a big name and/or swing a trade to clear up more space. Either way, the Rangers future looks fairly bright for the next few years and could pose a real threat to the Flyers. Their biggest needs are to shore up a backup goalie and defense.
Pittsburgh Penguins (46-25-11 3rd Place in 2021-22)
PROJECTED CAP SPACE: $15 million
At some point, the Penguins players that have plagued the Flyers for years will be gone. This year could be that year. But with a lot of cap space at their disposal, Pittsburgh could reload and continue their playoff runs. They had only five draft picks this year and spent two of them on centers and two on defense. Their first rounder, Owen Pickering needs some seasoning first, but looks like he could be a big hulking presence on the blue line in a few years.
Pittsburgh just extended Kris Letang, keeping him inhouse for the next years. The problem is keeping their other stars in house too. Evan Rodrigues scored 19 goals and Rickard Rackell scored 20 this season. Both are 29. Evgeni Malkin will be 36, scored 20 goals, and wants to be paid based on what he has done historically for this team.
Rackell and Rodrgiues put up similar numbers to Malkin and earn half of what he makes. Reports from Pittsburgh are that the two sides are far away on a deal. Malkin is older and has been injured a lot over the past few years. His skills are in obvious decline. Could there be a divorce here?
The Pens also should be concerned about two of their RFAs, Kasperi Kapanen and Danton Heinen. Both can score and could be attractive to a team looking to take the Pens down. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh may be looking to extend them to prevent something like this from happening.
Pittsburgh hasn’t missed the playoffs since 2005-06. They’ve won three Stanley Cups since then and lost another one. They are a model of consistency that is to be admired. It is very possible the Pens could let Malkin walk, re-sign some of their players, and still have enough money to land a top free agent on defense and/or offense.
And even with Malkin being injury prone a lot of the last few years, they managed to be a successful team even without him. Yes, the Penguins aren’t what they used to be and are in decline, but they still have enough firepower to be a problem for the next few years.
Washington Capitals (44-26-12 4th Place in 2021-22)
PROJECTED CAP SPACE: $9 million
The Caps had hoped that winning the Stanley Cup would be the first step in their own dynasty. That has not happened. Like the Pens, their best days are probably behind them. And like the Pens, they are getting older. And also like the Pens, they are usually one of the top teams in the East. They selected in the first round, a 6’1″ Russian forward, Ivan Miroshnichenko, who captained team Russia to a gold medal in this year’s 2021 Hlinka Gretzky Cup.
The Caps are actually in pretty good shape, despite their low salary cap. They have only six free agents, with defenseman Justin Schultz being the best of them. Their top RFA is goalie Ilya Samsonov.
The other concern that Washington needs to keep an eye on is Alexander Ovechkin. He still played at a top level this past year and is someone who is a threat to score at any time. However, he is very much involved in Russian politics and a proud Russian. He is close to Russian president Vladimir Putin.
For right or wrong, a lot of media attention was thrown at him in regards to speaking out against the war on Ukraine. He said very little, walking a tight line of expressing regret for violence, but not condemning his nation either. It is possible, but highly unlikely, he could return to Russia this year if the war gets worse. After all, he did protest the NHL’s decision not let players participate in the Olympics and threatened to leave for the KHL, along with Malkin.
The Caps could make a big splash with a top level free agent or two and still prove to be a competitive team for a while. Their time of consistent dominant play, much like Pittsburgh, should end at some point, but we might not be there yet. A big stud defender and/or another strong winger could put this team back on top. However, the cap limits the Caps. Look for them to sign solid depth pieces.
New York Islanders (37-35-10 5th Place in 2021-22)
PROJECTED CAP SPACE: $12 million
With the Rangers being the surprise of the division, the Islanders were the other surprise. They got off to a cold start and never seemed to recover. Here was a team that looked as if it had finally put it together after so many years of being a basement dweller only to fall back down again. And opening a new arena this year, the Isles are hoping their fortunes may change.
They did not have a first rounder this year, as they packaged their pick to Montreal to acquire Alexander Romonov and extended him. Romonov appears to have a bright future, so this could be a good trade from which to start. The Isles made five picks in the draft, with two of their top three picks going to defense.
With Romonov on defense, the Islanders may want to use this time to lock up RFA blueliners Sebastian Aho (not the same guy that is a star in Carolina) and Noah Dobson. They have eight depth pieces as free agents, but nobody of any value outside of the shell of what once was Zdeno Chara.
What this means is that the Islanders could be looking to make a splash or two on the free agency market. With $12 million freed up, they have announced they will spend that money around. Rumors are that they are going to make a big push for Johnny Gaudreau. And with a team that has some talented forwards, they may have enough pieces to lure him over to Long Island and have enough to get another addition or swing a trade.
While the Islanders might be the most attractive team in the division, they have a new coach. They have some decent pieces in place. This could be a team on the decline or a team on the rebound that could surprise anyone. This could be a crucial offseason for them. If they falter out of the gates next year and completely implode, it is possible they could do a firesale to acquire more draft assets.
Columbus Blue Jackets (37-38-7 6th Place in 2021-22)
PROJECTED CAP SPACE: $16 million
And then there is CBJ. Columbus has unloaded top talent for the last few years and seen franchise level players walk away. And yet they were in contention for a playoff position for most of the year. They surprised everyone with their ability to stay in games and might not be far off from contending again…or they could be what they continue to be, a team that develops good young talent and becomes a farm team for the big money franchises.
The Jackets had seven picks in this year’s draft and made the most of it. In the #6 spot, they picked Czech defender David Jiricek, who might be NHL ready. Six picks later, they chose Canadian blue liner Denton Mateychuk. If these picks pan out, they will have some solid defenseman for the future,
The Blue Jackets do not have any free agents to speak of. However, the have a legitimate player who could be poached as an RFA. Patrik Laine is a player whose speed and scoring talent are coveted by almost every team. It’s been said that the Flyers have inquired about him in the past, however with John Tortorella on board as coach, that ship has probably sailed, hit an iceberg, and sunk. But other teams with big pockets could try to snatch him up.
Columbus has never really been big on the free agent market. But they have a lot of money to play with. They could easily attract some big names to play there, if they wanted to. But this is also a team that has never shown a lot of consistency of building a core group of talent and go with it. For that reason, I’m not sure that this team will be anything more than just a spoiler for years to come.
They aren’t a terrible team going nowhere (Buffalo, I’m looking at you!), but they don’t seem to do anything to take that next big step forward. They are frisky enough, but they are not going to be a dominant team in a highly competitive division. If they were in the Atlantic Division, they’d probably be contending for a playoff spot.
New Jersey Devils (27-46-9 7th Place in 2021-22)
PROJECTED CAP SPACE: $25 million
Then there is the Devils. They have the most cap space in the division and the sixth most overall. This is a team that has been floundering for years, stockpiling top picks, like this year’s second overall pick Simon Nemec. Everyone keeps an eye on them as a sexy pick to suddenly make that jump into greatness. That hasn’t happened yet, but could this year change that?
Nemec was probably the best defender in the draft. He joins a team with other young top prospects, like Jack Hughes. The Devils went back to their roots, selecting four defenders with their eight picks.
First NJ will probably seek to extend Jesper Bratt and Pavel Zacha. Both are young players who’ve put up decent numbers. As for their own in house free agents, the only one who is really appealing to keep would be PK Subban. Subban is 33 years old and has a salary right now at $9 million. And if they were to re-sign him at that price, they’d still top everyone else in the division in salary cap space.
And that is the problem. They have enough prospects where they could flip them and trade for a top tier player who wants out, like David Pastrnak or Patrik Laine perhaps. They could splurge on the market and entice Johnny Gaudreau, Vincent Trocheck, and/or Evgeni Malkin to take their talents to North Jersey and still have enough money left over to shore up holes elsewhere. This is what makes this particular team the wild card of the division. If they play their cards right, they could be dominating very soon. Or, they could remain at the bottom of the division.
Flyers Divisional Roundup
The Devils have a lot of money to spend and that could be bad news for the rest of the division. Carolina could stay on top, but they have a lot of talent that they may either have to sign or move on from. The Rangers appear poised to continue on what they’ve accomplished so far.
The Pens and Caps are aging, but still competitive while the Isles and Jackets are mysteries as to what they could be. The Pens and Caps, if they are smart, should be in a retooling mode. The Rangers should be building on what they’ve done while the Canes should be maintaining that success. The Devils and Jackets are building, not for this year, but the years to come.
What does this mean for the Flyers? Quite a lot.
After the DeAngelo trade, the Flyers are down to 118K, the lowest in the division by far. Barring a trade or hoping that the team will grab someone on a backloaded contract, it’s impossible for them to attract one of the top free agents.
The biggest thing the Flyers need to do is get healthy and buy into whatever system Torts is bringing along.
There are no weak teams in the Flyers division and each team will end up beating the tar out of each other trying to scramble for just a few playoff spots. The Flyers could be on the outside looking in again, for the third year in a row if they are not careful. A lot of this depends on the health of other teams too and what moves they make. But it is worth it for the Flyers to keep an eye on things.
I would say that teams to watch here are Carolina and NJ. If Carolina loses all of their big free agents, do they make a splash with someone else or stay in house? Does NJ open up their wallets and spend recklessly? These two teams, I feel, will determine what plays out with the rest of the division and how each other team responds.