The Flyers goaltending soap opera will continue this season with Carter Hart again playing the leading role. After 20-21 ended in a very public flame out, the 21-22 season was a bit of a bounce back for Hart. Though the numbers do support that it was dead cat bounce, there is much more to the story than that and reason to be optimistic about Hart.
First and foremost, there were many things that were beyond Carter Hart’s control. Trading for Ryan Ellis, and his subsequent injury. Wretched special teams. Hayes and Couturier being sidelined for long stretches. Justin Braun’s continued pairing with Ivan Provorov. Every single uncovered one-timer from the slot.
All of this was beyond Hart’s control, and the goaltender continued to battle, continued to be confident and gave his team a chance to win each night. Most importantly he did not break mentally. He will badly need that mental strength this season.
Statisitcally Hart cut his GAA from 3.67 in 2021 to 3.16 in 2022. He also increased his save percentage from .877 to .905. A closer look at the numbers shows two trends that should be better under the new regime. Hart’s short handed save percentage was .843. By comparison James Reimer led goalies with more than 25 apperences at .930. I expect Hart to see a sizable jump in this number, in the range of .880.
Perhaps more shocking was Hart’s PP save percentage. Of goalies that were on ice for over 100 powerplay minutes, Hart ranked 47th out of 55 with an .868 save percentage. Not only were the Flyers unable to score on the PP, they also played awful defense. Hart should show improvement in this metric as well with Tortorella at the helm.
Hart and the team’s goaltending will be one of several subplots this season that all seem to orbit around Tortorella. If Hart can stay confident and gain Tortorella’s trust, the Flyers have a chance to ride him into contention for a position in the playoffs. Tortorella will get this team to play harder in front of the goalie then at anytime in Hart’s tenure, eventually. Hart will have to hold the fort on many nights early in the season as the coach molds the players into their best selves. It will be a challenge.
The alternate scenario is that Hart buckles. Tortorella knows the difference between a bad team in front of good goalie and a bad goalie. He is also aware that goalies, even good ones, have off nights, but there is a limit to how many he will tolerate. If Hart’s confidence wobbles, or he makes dumb plays that cost the team wins, he could find himself out of favor with the coach.
Once Tortorella has booted you from his circle of trust, it is very hard to get back in. This will be Hart’s challenge, to stay in Tortorella’s good graces until the team is playing the coach’s brand of hockey. Hart handled himself very well last year on a truly awful team.
He is hitting the right age with the right level of experience to become one of the league’s premier netminders. Tortorella will devise a system that will favor the keeper, but it will take time to implement.
I expect Hart to weather the early storm, hold off a challenge from Felix Sandstrom, and then reap the statisitcal benefits in the second half of the season as he helps the Flyers try to secure the last playoff spot. Hart will show yet again that he is the best chance the Flyers have at winning night in and night out.