Flyers 2023 Not So Bold Predictions: Year in Review
The Flyers were full of surprises this season even if the end result got them right where most people predicited: out of the playoffs. While not everything went to script, many things that seemed like certainties failed to materialize, which is much different from the more recent vintages of Flyers teams. What was most interesting was predictions that were Tortorella related, who is thought of as kind of a wild card, came to pass. It seems we can count on Torts being Torts. On ice performance is tough (but fun) to predict, so variances there are to be expected.
Where I was most wrong was in the front office. I pride myself on having a decent understanding of how GMs operate, their thought process and how various ownership structures can and do impact decision making. This years results has me wondering if I am really bad at what I do, or if the Flyers are. The proof is in the pudding and the results are in for another year of repant speculatation, pride and prejudice, Enjoy!
2021: 9 – 11 (45%) 2022: 14 – 6 (70%) 2023: 10-9-1 (52.5%) Total :65-50-5 56.25%
Kevin Hayes to be First Victim of a Tortorella Public Call Out (PUSH)
Kevin Hayes and Travis Konecny were both benched in October. While Tortorella did a pretty good job of starving the media of comments, this was a very public benching. He then benched Hayes in December and scratched him from the lineup the next night. Sitting a player for a period, the team’s leading scorer, sends a public message, and perhaps more than some verbal sparring in the media. But the argument could be made that the benchings were something else. In either case fetching a sixth round pick for the team’s second leading scorer is a pretty good indication that it did not work out.
Flyers Surpass 61 points (Win)
No Ellis, No Atkinson, No Couturier, No problem! The Flyers beat last season’s point total by 14, ending the season with 75 points. Tortorella can push bad teams into the mediocre category for sure and that is just what he did. There are a lot of deficiencies that can be covered up with effort and the team played hard for Torts.
Flyers Miss Playoffs (Win)
No Ellis, No Atkinson, No Couturier, No Playoffs. There is no guarantee that even with all of these players healthy the Flyers would have qualified for a playoff spot, but the injuries surely did not help. Last summer the Flyers were hemming and hawing on return dates for Atkinson and Couturier, with the timeline getting longer with each stutter made to the media. The team had basically gone radio silent on Ellis’ status, which we now know is a terrible sign. Keep this in mind as the season grows closer while looking at the frequency of updates regarding Couturier and Atkinson, no news seems to be bad news where Flyers injuries are concerend.
Powerplay Improves (Win)
Only the Flyers could take a sure thing and make me sweat. I am lucky there was not an expansion team this year. The team finished dead last, again, with the man advantage. It was their first season in over a decade without Giroux running things from the half boards, but it is statiscally improbable that they would this bad twice in a row. The Flyers finished at 15.56%, a significant improvement from the 12.55% the previous season even if they were still the league’s worst unit.
Penalty Kill Improves (Loss)
The Flyers finished 26th in the league in penalty killing, just like in 2022, killing penalties at a 74.68% rate. In 2022, the Flyers killed at a 75.74% rate. This was an area I thought Tortorella could turn around immediately because effort can negate talent while short handed. Perhaps the loss of Atkinson and Couturier decimated the PK to the point of ineffectiveness. This result is a surprising development on a Tortorella coached team.
PIM Increase (Win)
Under Alain Vigneault, the Flyers adopted a passive disposition. That was probably a conscious decision given the Flyers’ penalty killing woes under that regime. The team seemed to want to actively avoid the box at the cost of pride, injury or anything else. The Flyers aggression level was tucked solidly between asleep and comatose. This was not going to work on a Tortorella coached team. Ask Kevin Hayes.
Rather than showing the Jason Kelce “Hungry dogs run faster” speech on loop to fire up the troops, the Flyers signed Nicolas Deslauriers! For four years!!! The Flyers spent 10.4 minutes a game in the sin bin, up from 9 the season before. Deslauriers tallied a new career high with 136 PIM, that is an average of 1.7 PIM a game.
As one would expect, the numbers show the Flyers struggling in several areas. Perhaps most concerning are the injuries and in turn organizational depth. As of right now, the Flyers do not have the assets to give away their best players as with Hayes and DeAngelo. The numbers illustrate the problem and indicate even tougher times immediately ahead after Briere’s trades.
Provorov leads the team in Minutes (Win)
The Flyers former do-it-all defensemen easily lead the team in minutes at over 1887 played in 82 games, was skating 23 minutes a night, out pacing Tony DeAngelo by almost a minute. Provorov meant a lot to this team, a team in the lower end of the standings. I hate to see him go but trading him for rebuilding assets is a better use of his talents.
Provorov Plays Over 25 % of His Minutes with Justin Braun (Loss)
Mercifully, Provorov was paired with Braun for just 76 minutes this season, less than 10% of Provorov’s time on ice. Braun, characterized as an elite defender by former Flyers’ GM Chuck Fletcher, only averaged 15 minutes a night in 51 games, spending the bulk of his ice time with Travis Sanheim and Nick Seeler. Braun posted the familiar middle of the road stats that defined his time in Philadelphia and retired at the season’s end.
It was clear that Braun was a boat anchor that Provorov was dragging around on ice, unfortunately Provorov failed to find any chemistry with any partner this season. We will see if the change of scenary will change his luck.
Tony DeAngelo Leads the Flyers Defensemen in Scoring (Win)
Despite whatever questions there may be about Tony DeAngelo, he can fill a stat sheet without a doubt. He lead the team’s defensemen with 42 points, in only 70 games, eclipsing second leading defensive scorer Provorov by 15 points. If DeAngelo is paired with the right player, he can produce. After his release, it is clear he will not be producing in Philly
Carter Hart’s Numbers improve Again (Win)
Hart played more games, collected more wins, had a higher save percentage and lower GAA on a team that had only one effective defensive pairing. The team’s forwards did a better job in front of Hart, and the goalie was able to play with a bit more confidence, playing further out from the net where he can most effectively shut down angles. There are many areas of concern on this team, but goaltending is not one of them.
Sean Couturier plays less than 60 Games (Win)
As bad as things were for the Flyers last year, outside of his massive extension, things were worse for Couturier. The center was unable to suit up for a single game. Missing a player of Couturier’s stature for the season certainly diminished the team’s chances, but his health remains an open concern this year. At this point it is fair to wonder not only how effective he will be, but just how many shifts the Selke winner has left in his career.
Ryan Ellis Plays Less than 41 Games (Win)
Ellis, like Couturier, failed to dress for a single game. His absence, while probably just as damaging, was far less surprising for the team and fans. No one is counting on any contribution from Ellis this season, and if he did see the ice it would a huge surprise. At this point it looks like Ellis may be best used as a place holder to get a team above the league mandated salary cap minimum. Ellis is under contract until 2027.
Ronnie Attard plays less than 41 games (Win)
Attard was a late season call up after the DeAngelo blow up, and played in only two games. Attard did have solid numbers with the Phantoms, however he is now 24 years old, overaged as a NHL prospect. To put it in perspective, the recently traded Ivan Provorov is 26 and Yegor Zamula is 23.
Given the nature of last season , it is surprising that Attard did not get a longer look, with players like Justin Braun and Nick Seeler suiting up regularly. It looks like Attard is running out of runway to establish himself as a bottom pair or seventh defensemen, this season may be his last, best chance to earn an NHL slot.
Zamula Earns Spot with The Big Club (Loss)
Between injuries and the Tortorella dog house, Zamula failed to lock down a regular spot on defense. He has the size and mobility to be an NHL defender, but has failed to put it together in a way to make him undeniable. It should be an interesting camp for Zamula with less established veterans and more competition from other prospects. If I had advice for Zamula, it would be don’t take a shift or even a second off. Talent alone is not going to decide who plays.
Gritty Spawns Others (Loss)
If there is a silver lining to the Pride Night situation, pausing the progeny of Gritty could be it. Without a doubt the Flyers marketing department, if not the entire organization, was put into damage control mode in the months following Pride night, putting any Gritty clones on the back burner. But beware, Grittney has not been suedout of existance by the Comcast legal team and as far as I know Gritty has not yet been fixed and still might be able to slip one past the goalie.
Deslauriers Plays More than any Flyers Rookie Forward (Loss)
Thank God for Noah Cates. Deslauriers, the Flyers PIM leader, played in 80 games this season, while mighty Noah Cates played in all 82 and looks like he will do it again after signing an deserved extension. I don’t think I have been happier having a prediction be wrong than in this case. In the Flyers 2017 draft, which included Nolan Patrick and Morgan Frost, Cates looks like he may have the longest NHL career. On another note, Deslauriers is signed through 2026.
Sanheim has a great year…. (Loss)
Keep in mind this prediction was made prior to the massive extension Sanheim signed. I thought he would be playing for his next contract. The views on Sanheim are split. Some pundits think he had clearly regressed, others think his season was passable, if a little underwhelming. Even as a Sanheim detractor, I would gauge his work this past season as amongst his better. Unfortunately, a “not a bad as normal” rating is more than a stone’s throw from great. Sanheim put up paltry offensive numbers, with advanced statistics that did not wow, but was only a -4 in regard to goal differential. With even less talent on the team this season, Sanheim will be a player to watch with interest.
…. And then is Traded at the Deadline (Loss)
Again. This prediction was made before the mega extension of Sanheim. There are not enough Tory Krug’s in this league to ever move this contract. We will be seeing Sanheim in Flyers’ orange for some time. But I don’t think the book is completely written on Sanheim. I could see him taking the leap I expected last season this year, thus making him a productive, though be it over paid, player.
Flyers Trade JVR (Loss)
I would have bet my house on this happening. Thank God I didn’t. But that is Chuck Fletcher for you. When you think he is going to zig, he signs as many long term deals as he can and fails to trade JVR. I would have preffered he zagged. I guess we should be happy Fletcher did not get Gritty pregnant or burn the practice facility to the ground.
Fletcher Fired (Win) By Christmas (Loss), Parlay Loss
When you sign an oft injured Couturier and a mid-tier defensemen to massive extensions and it doesn’t get you fired, I guess you start to wonder if anything can. Maybe this turned into the sad version of “Groundhog Day” where trader Chuck was testing the limits to see just how far he could take it. In the end, turns out the final nail in the coffin for Chuck Fletcher was his inability to trade JVR for a 6th round pick. This incident was a pretty minor scrape in the train wreck that was Fletcher tenure as GM but I guess it was finally enough for whomever makes the decisions. We wish Chuck well as he seeks another franchise to transform.