What Should The Philadelphia Flyers Do With Morgan Frost’s Next Contract?
As the calendar gets closer to August, most teams will have their rosters filled out. Marquee free agents have been signed and most depth players have either agreed to deals before their arbitration cases or simply accepted their qualifying offers. The Flyers did this with numerous players after handing out those offers to five players.
Four of those players have signed new deals heading into next season. Noah Cates, Cam York, Olle Lycksell, and Ronnie Attard are the players who are currently on board. That leaves Morgan Frost as the last restricted free agent who is still in need of a new deal. So what’s taking so long? Qualifying offers were handed out in mid-June while the signings took place in the weeks following. Attard was the first to sign, followed by Cates, York, and Lycksell.
The four above players all signed to two-year contracts. For Cates and York, the contracts are bridge deals. The Flyers have seen what each can do and are impressed from the sample sizes. With their rebuild expected to take around three or more years, contracts with that timeline give them the opportunity to see if said players can be a part of the ongoing future. Lycksell and Attard have limited NHL time, though will be vying for spots next season. A two-year deal for each gives them time to continue developing while gaining more experience.
In Frost’s case, things are a little bit different. He is the veteran of that group despite being only 24 years old. He has appeared in 158 career games spread over four different seasons. Injuries have cost him, this season being the first he played in almost every game at the NHL level. He lost the 2020-21 season after a shoulder injury and only played 20 games with the Flyers the season before.
Despite his still small sample size at the NHL level, it felt like he didn’t have a lot of time left to show the Flyers what he was capable of. Consistency and confidence has always been the name of the game for him. When he has it, it’s clear in his play. He produces more often and is more comfortable with the puck on his stick. And when the confidence is low, it shows even more in his play.
https://twitter.com/nhlflyers/status/1615524793209524231?s=46&t=Bm3J0tt8Q2vzBYUB5qklFA
So when John Tortorella talked about needing to find out what the Flyers’ younger prospects can do, Frost was likely chomping at the bit with the opportunity that was going to come his way. He knew where he stood in this organization.
“I know the situation I’m in. I’m trying to do the right things, whether it’s making more plays or be a little bit more reliable defensively,” Frost said back in March. “I think even faceoffs too, I know my faceoffs have been pretty terrible all year. Just really trying to hone in on that now and show that I can play a complete game. I wanna be here in the future, so every game is important.”
After not playing much in his first two years, Frost appeared in 55 games games during the 2021-22 season. He did shuffle back and forth between the NHL and AHL, posting five goals and 16 points with the Flyers. He found some chemistry with Owen Tippett and ended the season on a strong note. Philadelphia believed in him enough to bring him back on what was essential a one-year “prove it” deal. If he didn’t live up to expectations, it would be no big deal and they could cut ties.
He did rather well with his new opportunity, going from a comparison to “a toilet seat” to gaining the trust of his coach and earning more playing time by the end of the season. He shattered career highs in goals (19), assists (27), and points (46). His 81 games in one season were the most he played when compared to the last three seasons combined. Frost improved as the year went on and the points were piling up as the calendar turned to January and beyond.
For some context on the type of strides Morgan Frost made when calendar turned to 2023:
— Jordan Hall (@JHallNBCS) July 17, 2023
Frost from Jan. 1 to end of season:
45 games, 32 points (12 G, 20 A), 28 at even strength
Alex DeBrincat from Jan. 1 to end of season:
46 games, 30 points (14 G, 16 A), 19 at even strength
So if Frost did all of that, why hasn’t he signed a new contract yet? It feels more like a matter of when than if. He clearly showed that with more opportunity, he could be the player that the Flyers drafted in the first round in 2017. He hasn’t quite lived up to his full potential, but he showed signs this last season. Any kind of holdup likely had to do with the length of his next contact. The Flyers could either bridge him like they did with Cates and York or bank on his last few months being the new norm and locking him in for four or five years.
There are plenty of benefits and risks on either side. If he signs a short team deal, he could continue to improve and his next deal becomes even more lucrative. The cap is expected to go up, though, so that may not necessarily be a huge problem. Players around the league appear to be signing shorter term deals in order to cash in after. However, the Flyers will have some important free agents coming up in the next few offseasons. Tippett is one of the largest names next offseason as he will certainly command a pay raise if his play from this last season carries into the next. If Carter Hart is still around, he will be in line for a new deal. Sam Ersson will also be at the end of his entry-level deal.
The following summer is when the likes of Cates and York will be up for new deals once more. And those are likely to come with their own raises as well. If the Flyers want to go long term on Frost, they would be holding a lot of faith that he has finally turned the corner. It would also be a significant raise from the $800K he played at this past year. It will likely cost them more than what they handed out to Cates (2.625M). They are expected to have over 9M in cap space with Ryan Ellis on LTIR. Not looking at a year or two from now, the money is currently there if the team wants to use it.
A longer term deal would buy out the rest of Frost’s restricted free agent years and a year or two of unrestricted free agency. Three years exactly would take him right to 27 years old, thus making him a UFA. So if the team is going to go long term, it would benefit them to go at least four or possibly even five years. It’s also about how the Flyers feel about Frost moving forward. Do they feel his scoring potential was just touching the surface? Do they thing he can turn into a top-six talent? Do they feel the other parts of his game can continue to develop and make him an effective NHL players at both ends of the ice?
If the answer is yes, a long term deal should absolutely be on the table. If they have an reservations in regard to those questions or even anything else, a bridge deal is likely where they should go. It could be better to get him at a cap hit around York and Cates now and hope he provides even more value than to sign him to a more lucrative deal and hope he doesn’t regress or that others don’t pass him on the depth chart. It’s the kind of risks you have to weigh with a player of his age.
The Flyers aren’t playing for now, they’re playing for the future. Saving money at this point won’t do them any good down the line if they end up spending even more once they are ready to contend again. There’s a lot of factors they have to consider. We should soon find out just what they think of Morgan Frost.