Twenty (Not so) Bold Predictions for 2023-2024 Flyers: Part One
Summer should be a time of optimisim and hope for the Flyers and their loyal fan base. Gone is Chuck Fletcher and his Russian Roulette style of management, though there are painful reminders left in his wake. Danny Briere has already made his mark, but it seems like he is moving the Flyers further away from immediate contention by all but giving away valuable players. This could all be part of a still hidden master plan by the rookie GM, but he has already given the fan base reason for doubt.
This season should give us a chance to watch and appreciate the younger players who will take bigger roles, and the summer gives us an opportunity to baselessly compliment or criticise these players. After finishing just over .500 last season I took a queue from the Flyers and went even bolder.
Flyers Power Play gets Worse (under 15.66%)
The Flyers finished last in the league on the powerplay for the second year in a row. You may ask how could it get any worse. As a Flyers’ fan, you should know better.
First, Ivan Provorov and Tony DeAngelo are no longer with the club. Both of those players proved that they could run an NHL power despite last year stats. The Flyers will now look to Travis Sanheim or Cam York to run the beleaguered powerplay, both of whom are at best unproven. Sanheim has sniffed powerplay for a few years, playing only 44 minutes last season and maxing out at 80 minutes on the man advantage in 2018 -2019, collecting five points.
By contrast, York played 94 minutes with the man advantage this past season, collecting three points. It is likely York’s spot to lose, but he appears to be far from special. On a loaded WJC under 20 team York (#4) was tough to notice even in his “highlight” reel. It was like being asked to play “Tree #2 “ in your school play, flashing in and out of the frame for a split second as far away from the action as he could be. York may play a similar role, feeding the puck to Frost, but the Flyers are not the powerhouse that the US world juniors team was. York looks to be an unspectacular cog in an unspectacular machine.
As far as the forwards go, it is worth noting that Kevin Hayes played over 200 minutes of power play time and led the forwards with 16 power play points, second to DeAngelo’s 19 power play points. This will see if the Flyers have addition by subtraction, or just plain old subtraction.
The Flyers PK will be Better (above 74.68 %)
If there was one thing that surprised me about last season’s team was how bad they were at penalty killing. The Flyers goaltending was reasonably solid and the penalty killing unit was nearly identical the previous season. I expected Tortorella to make the difference here, but there wasn’t much improvement.
My analysis has come up with two possible reasons for the regression. First the team missed Couturier and Atkinson dramatically when short-handed. It’s possible, but rare, for players to be missed that much on the PK. The second, and even less satisfying explanation was the team was unlucky. Bad luck or no, my guess that the Flyers will not be as unlucky next season and the team will climb to a Tortorella like low 80s PK percentage.
The Flyers Will Endure at Least Three Five Game Winless Streaks This Season
This will not be an indictment on effort or goaltending, but the reality of a shallow and young roster with more questions than answers. The Flyers endured winless stretches of nine and seven games last season with a roster that included Provorov and Hayes, and a power play that had JVR and Tony Deangelo. This kind of upheaval has the team back to square one in terms of approach and what players can contribute. Prolonged tough stetches should be expected. Look for the Flyers to get into at least three prolonged down turns over the course of the season.
Flyers Collect less than 75 Points
The Flyers defense was a leaky ship last season. This year it is a submarine with a screen door. The team will march forward without Provorov, Braun, and DeAngelo. Sanheim looks to be on the trading block and all the Torey Krugs of the world are not going to help this team. Walker and Staal are nice depth additions, upgrades over Nick Seeler, but are not going to move the needle. The Flyers best hope of strengthening the defense will come in the way of prospects, but it is hard to expect much from Andrae, Grans or Attard.
Say what you may about Kevin Hayes, but he could consistently dominate the offensive zone. Many a Flyers’ goal was scored by Hayes keeping possession until the defense broke down. The bottom line is the Flyers will miss Hayes’ offensive production. As of today this team is not built to win a run and gun contest.
With a compromised defense and an offense that will struggle, the Flyers will not be close to their 75 point total from 2023. Look for this team to finish with 64 to 69 points.
Logic and reason trump optimism in this case. Look for the team to have a down year, where the powerplay is an issue.But even if the team struggles, individual players could still enjoy a measure of success, as will be discussed in predictions part two!