Besides the absolute insanity that is the Stanley Cup Finals right now, the biggest bomb to hit the NHL world was Red Wings' captain Dylan Larkin saying he wants out of Detroit. While nobody has commented on the subject, the cat is out of the bag. Nobody has denied it, although Detroit has said, "Larkin is a Red Wing".
For Philadelphia sports fans, we heard this all winter. "AJ Brown is, and remains, an Eagle," said Howie Roseman all winter long. Then June 1st rolls around and sayonara, AJ! Of course, the Wings have to say this. They need to keep the price up.
See, under the law of supply and demand, those with the supply (Detroit) have ways to keep prices high. However, if EVERYBODY knows that the supply (Larkin) wants out, you might be able to offer a lower price. If fewer teams jump in on the bidding, then the price can fall even lower. A lot of this will depend on how badly public the rift becomes. A holdout could drive the price even lower. The more public it gets, the lower the price can be. Think of when the Phillies publicly said they wanted to get rid of Nick Castellanos and spent all winter trying to move him. Nobody even offered a bag of used baseballs. In the end, he was released.
For example, when Cutter Gauthier wanted out, the Flyers were able to keep the news fairly quiet. Sure, there had been rumors beforehand about his dissatisfaction with the Flyers, but nothing had been said about him wanting off the team. Enough teams may have known about it, as Daniel Briere was only about to get a second-round pick and Jamie Drysdale for him. Still, it wasn't a terrible haul.
If the Flyers were going to make a bid for Larkin, what would it take to land him? It will depend, first of all, on how much competition the Flyers will have for him. If 31 teams make an offer, it will take a lot. If nobody else does, which is highly unlikely, almost anything will do. Most likely, it will be a handful of teams. Yahoo Sports suggests Minnesota, Montreal, and Anaheim as top contenders, looking to land Detroit's captain.
Before we look at any sort of package, let's examine what the Flyers would get in return. Larkin will turn 30 at the end of July. He is signed until 2031 at $8.7 million a year. That's a price the Flyers could afford. They would also be getting a two-time All-Star, a player currently riding a five-year 30+ goal scoring streak, relatively healthy, and who has won over 50% of his faceoffs in his career. He could be the left-handed center this team has been aching for.
But Larkin won't come cheap. It will cost something to get a player of his caliber. While he isn't an elite center (as compared to Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan McKinnon, Jack Eichel, etc.), he is reliable and steady. NHL.com ranks him as the 15th-best center playing right now. What would the Flyers have to give up?
Below are three options. They all hurt to some degree, but they all have a chance at landing Larkin, depending on what Detroit wants in return and how many other teams want to snag Larkin from the Wings.
Option One: The Cheap-Cheap
The Flyers have a lot of salary cap space. Yes, they still need to extend some guys, but they will have enough wiggle room. A lot of other teams may not be able to take on his whole salary. Since Larkin has a full trade clause in his contract, he could shoot down any city that offers something better. That could help.
Knowing this, Briere low balls it. He offers the following.
The Red Wings have no second-round pick for next year. The Flyers have two. Since they are losing a center, the Flyers can hand them their former first-round pick (Luchanko). Detroit also needs a top-level defender. While I know the Flyers are high on Jiricek, this is for a playmaking center. If you look at it, this trade would end up being Bobby Brink for Larkin; it's so worth it.
Let's be honest, this is a worst-case scenario for the Wings. Nobody can swing a deal from a city that Larkin is ready to go to. This smells a lot like when Philly traded Eric Lindros to the Rangers. The team basically got the best they could in return, which was mostly nothing. Luchanko and Jiricek both have potential, but Larkin is a better prize.
Option Two: Cheap, But Still Hurts
A few teams get in on the offer. Prospects and draft picks are offered. A few established players are given. Briere needs to up his ante.
The competition is fierce. The Flyers will give their first-round pick to get Larkin. Detroit has no first-rounder this year, so this will entice them. Noah Cates is a solid, dependable center who is coming into his own. On the Flyers, he's played on every line. Perhaps in Detroit, he could be a top-six center.
Giving up Barkey is steep, but someone will have to go. He is a young and rising star. His potential is high. So is Zavragin's. Detroit needs a goalie and he could fulfill their needs, albeit in a few years.
This trade is a bit more painful than the first one, but it is at least salvageable. If Larkin can play up to the performance he has already done, the memories of those gone could easily be washed away.
Option Three: Bidding War Means High Cost
In this scenario, a few teams are really hot for Larkin, and a bidding war ensues. Because of this, Briere has to pay a lot. Here, we see a high price the Flyers could end up paying for Larkin's services.
This is the worst-case scenario. Detroit demands the cream of the Flyers' crop. Multiple first-rounders, two top prospects, and a top player. It could come down to Michkov or Porter Martone. Since Detroit has a history of developing Russian players, I went with Michkov.
This is a cost that could be too much. Losing Luchanko and/or Jiricek would sting, but Larkin would be worth it. Losing a Martone or Michkov, along with multiple draft picks like this, would be devastating to the Flyers.
It would be different if it were simply throwing in an Emil Andrae and Nikita Grebenkin, but Detroit is going to want a high return. The cost, long-term, to the Flyers could be too much. But if the situation gets ugly, it might not be bad to have the Red Wings on speed dial.
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