One man's garbage is another man's treasure. Sometimes, things work out for one team and are disastrous for another. However, it can be funny when it happens to your rival.
Two years ago, Flyers fans watched in horror as the Pittsburgh Penguins swung a deal for Erik Karlsson, the reigning Norris Trophy winner fresh off a 101-point season on a wretched San Jose team. Instead, it has been a horrible catastrophe for them. The Pens gave up a first—and second-round pick and five players for a defender who has scored 109 points in two seasons.
Karlsson will be 35 in May, making $10 million for two more years. The Penguins will have a fair amount of cap space, but have more than a few RFAs to consider this offseason. They tried to move Karlsson this past trade deadline to no avail. Likewise, it is expected they will try to move him this summer.
Flyers Could Capitalize on Penguins Woes
The Penguins are desperate to move him. He has a no-trade clause, and he loves playing in Pittsburgh. It was hoped that he could be the missing ingredient to take an aging core of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang back to the Stanley Cup Finals. It hasn't happened.
Beggars can't be choosers. Karlsson's age, seemingly diminished offensive stats, and defensive woes (140 giveaways this year!...good for second in the league) all mean that the Penguins will not get what they paid for him. Not even close. Nobody is going to give Pittsburgh a first-round pick or a bevy of top-notch young talent. However, what if he wasn't the problem? What if the problem was the Penguins themselves?
The Pens overpaid for him. That is their fault. With the possibility of Rasmus Ristolainen losing some time to start the season, a veteran like Karlsson could help shore up the defense for a bit. If the Flyers could end up paying him somewhere between $5-7 million, that's a bargain rate for him. He could line up with Travis Sanheim or Nick Seeler.
This is where the Flyers can swoop in. If no or few suitors line up, the Flyers could pay a rock-bottom price. If the Pens had to retain $5 million of his salary, the Flyers could offer a pair of second-round picks or a second-rounder and a defensive prospect, Helge Grans or Emil Andrae perhaps.
Why Would the Flyers Make the Deal?
Hold on a second. Why would the Flyers make this deal? Wouldn't it be better to saddle the Penguins with the high salary and see them suffer? Wouldn't it be better to stick them with an aging guy who's struggled? Those are fair questions.
First of all, they'd still be stuck paying at least half of his salary for a player they no longer employ. That helps us out as we get a player for half price. Secondly, did he really "struggle" in Pittsburgh?
As we've seen recently, it could be the "system" that Karlsson was in. He thrived in Ottawa on a team that was typically a bottom dweller. When he went to San Jose, the Sharks fell in the Western Conference Finals to the Blues and then fell apart. Still, he put up good numbers on a poor team. It could be that the Penguins just didn't employ him effectively.
Karlsson's 101-point season in 2022-23 is an anomaly. Before that, he was in the range of 40 and 80 points from 2014 to 2020 (not counting the COVID years, as that threw everyone's stats off). Even then, a pair of 50-point seasons is pretty solid. It looks bad in comparison to a 101-point season, but if those stats translated over to the Flyers, only Travis Konecny and Matvei Michkov would have more points.
Likewise, his 15 points on the power play would be behind the 17 points earned by Konecny and Michkov. Karlsson's 13 assists on the power play would lead the Flyers. Traditionally, when you look at Karlsson's stats on the power play, this is where he thrives.
The Flyers have stunk on the powerplay for years, and this year was no exception. This time has needed someone to bring this team out of its power play funk for the better part of a decade now. Karlsson could do that. More importantly, he could help a squad of young defenders, like Cam York, Jamie Drysdale, or a prospect like Oliver Bonk, improve when it's their time to be out there on the man advantage.
I'm not so certain that Karlsson's skills have diminished that badly. I think the expectations for him in Pittsburgh were so high that when they overpaid to get him, and the team around him struggled due to injuries, a lot of focus was cast on him. I fully believe a change of scenery would benefit him, and the Flyers could cash in by getting him for a lot less than what the Pens paid for him.
If we could get him and screw the Penguins over in the process, and still have him pay some of the bill, that would be great. This might end up being one of the best opportunities for the Flyers.
Would the Penguins go for it? A lot of that will depend on how desperate they are and how many people are lined up for him. After all, it goes back to the adage about economics: "If the demand is low, the price drops.