The Philadelphia Flyers had some cause for celebration following the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery. While the Toronto Maple Leafs' win had no material effect on the Flyers this year, Flyers fans felt content in knowing that the conditions of the Scott Laughton trade would essentially be fulfilled.
In short, the Leafs kept their 2026 pick, originally pledged to the Boston Bruins. But since it was a top-five protected pick, the Leafs kept their pick and sent a 2028 first-rounder to Boston, while the Flyers got the 2027 unprotected first-rounder.
This great piece delineates that line of thought.
While the Draft Lottery on Tuesday night seemed like a win for the Flyers, there’s a catch. The Flyers and Bruins didn’t read the fine print when they struck the deals with the Maple Leafs.
To preface the caveat, the initial plan was for the Maple Leafs to be a playoff team this year. Had the Leafs made the postseason, the Bruins would have gotten the 2026 pick and the Flyers the 2027 selection.
End of story.
However, the conditions on the Flyers’ 2027 pick in the Scott Laughton deal state that if the 2027 pick falls into the top 10, Toronto has the option of moving it to a 2028 pick.
The conditions on the original trade between the Bruins and Leafs state that if the 2027 pick is in the top 10, the Leafs can either give the 2027 pick to Boston and the 2028 pick to Philly, or vice versa.
In other words, if the Maple Leafs make the playoffs in 2027, Philly gets the 2027 pick, and Boston gets the 2028 selection.
The situation gets really convoluted if the Leafs don’t make the playoffs next season. If they don’t, as long as the pick does not land in the top 10, everything’s fine. But if the pick, especially after the NHL Draft Lottery ends, is in the top 10, the Leafs get to choose who gets which pick.
And that’s the likeliest outcome at this point.
Maple Leafs don’t look like a playoff team in 2027
Unless the Maple Leafs can pull off a quick turnaround like Boston did this past season, the likeliest outcome is that Toronto will continue to slide next season. In fact, the Leafs' trajectory is similar to that of the New York Rangers over the last couple of years.
That’s why the likelihood of next year’s Leafs pick falling into the top 10 is quite high. There’s really no plausible reason to assume that the Maple Leafs will be serious playoff contenders next season.
Sure, Auston Matthews and William Nylander could go on a tear next season. Their first-overall pick could have a similar effect to the one Matthew Schaefer had on the New York Islanders this season.
The Maple Leafs may even get good goaltending next year. But the fact remains that the outlook on Toronto next season is quite bearish. If the Leafs were a stock, investors would be betting against it. And current holders would be looking to unload it.
Ultimately, there’s not much Flyers fans can expect at this point. As things stand, that Toronto first-rounder is in a quantum state for Philly. The Flyers have both the 2027 and 2028. Fans won’t know which one they will be getting until they do.
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