The Flyers began the season with a simple competition for the starting goaltending role. Dan Vladar started one game and Sam Ersson started the next. It was a fair way to give each goaltender a chance to put themselves above the other.
And now, five games into the season, the Flyers have deviated from the plan. With that, they may be tipping their hand as to which goaltender they believe gives them the best chance at this time. Right now, that is the newcomer in Vladar.
This move doesn't come as a particular surprise. While the expectation was that Ersson would begin the season as the starting goaltender, his counterpart earned the opening night start after a rather impressive preseason. It was a small sample size, but it was enough for the Flyers to give Vladar a shot.
Since then, the two have alternated starts. Regardless of how one performed the game before, the other would get the next start. But a trend was beginning to show. It just felt like Vladar was playing better. And the numbers prove that. The easiest is that Vladar has been in net for the Flyers' two wins this season.
Even in small sample sizes, the two have vastly different numbers. Vladar has a 1.65 goals against average and a .934 save percentage. Ersson has a 3.88 goals against average and a .849 save percentage. It is fair to say that Vladar has faced almost double the shots, leading 71 to 45 in that category.
But if you look deeper, the picture becomes clearer. In high danger chances, Vladar has a .950 save percentage to Ersson's .824 save percentage. At even strength, Vladar has stopped all 10 of those shots while Ersson has saved 11 of the 14 he's seen. Move that to all strengths and Vladar is 19/20 and Ersson is 14/17. Simply put, Vladar is coming up larger in those key situations.
At 5-on-5 alone, Vladar has only given up two goals to Ersson's six. That gives the former a 2.58 goals saved above expected. Ersson sits at a -2.58 goals saves above expected, meaning he's let in nearly three more goals than the numbers suggest. Change that to all strengths and those numbers turn into 2.66 and -2.66 respectively.
Amongst all goaltenders, Vladar sits ninth in GSAA and fifth in high danger GAA. He has also faced 23 more shots than the top goaltender, Daniil Tarasov, who has appeared in two games to Vladar's three. His standard GAA puts his fourth in the league, while his SV% is seventh. If you look at qualified goaltenders, he is tied for fifth as Eric Comrie and David Rittich have only appeared in one game.
It's very early in the season, but Vladar is beginning to prove that he may have what it takes to be a starting goaltender. Now, he hasn't played more than 30 games in a season so there is still plenty of time to go.
But for now, Vladar will lead the Flyers onto the ice for his second consecutive start. And if all goes well, he may get a third after that.