One of the biggest surprises this season has been the play of Dan Vladar. He's approaching the most games he's ever played in a season, and it doesn't look like he's slowing down. A large reason the Flyers are where they are can be attributed to his success.
But an area that could hurt the Flyers is the play when he is not in the net. It's not unfair or incorrect to say that Sam Ersson has struggled immensely this season. A quick glance at the numbers confirms this. In 16 games, he's posted a 3.33 goals-against-average and an .858 save percentage. He's allowed two or fewer goals only four times. In seven games, he's given up four or more.
Amongst goaltenders who have played at least 990 minutes, Ersson ranks dead last in goals-against-average. He's not at the bottom in save percentage, falling ninth worst in the league. He's second only to Jordan Binnington (-17.64) in goals-saved-above-expected, coming in at -15.32. That means that Ersson is giving up nearly 16 goals more than he is expected to. That alone won't win you games.
Things continued to unravel for him on Saturday against the Tampa Bay Lightning, where he gave up seven goals for the first time since Oct. 2023. It was the third time overall in his career. The last one came on 25 shots, while the most recent was on 23 shots. And two goals came on the first three shots, both scored by Nikita Kucherov.
Ersson's teammates defended him after the game, as any good teammate would. But even they have to see the difference in play when each of the two goaltenders is in the net. If it's obvious to anyone outside of the locker room, it has to be clear as day to them. They're going to support him as best as they can, but a change is evident.
There are certain times when you need your goaltender to bail you out or make that key save to give the team momentum. And on most occasions, it doesn't feel like Ersson has been able to do that. He has dropped six of his last seven outings, giving up three or more goals in all but one. It makes it harder for your team to come back when they are constantly chasing the game.
Flyers need to make a choice with Sam Ersson
All of this is to say that something needs to give with Ersson. The Flyers may not necessarily have a better option in-house, but they need to try anything else. Aleksei Kolosov appears to have settled in rather nicely with the Phantoms and has looked good in two appearances at the NHL level this year, though one was in relief, where he only faced seven shots. But his only start this year saw him give up just two goals against Calgary, though the Flyers lost that game.
Kolosov will be a restricted free agent at the end of the year, so the Flyers need to get him some looks at the NHL level regardless. But they simply cannot go back to Ersson right now. It's not fair to a team that is performing above expectations and hanging in a tight playoff race. Even one or two losses can knock them down to the bottom of the pile with how close everyone is.
The Flyers would need to make another move to get Kolosov up. Currently carrying 14 forwards, they could send one down and carry three goaltenders for the time being. But who do you send down in that case? Denver Barkey struggled against the Lightning, though, who didn't? He's been rather impressive otherwise. Carl Grundstrom has cooled down with no points in his last five games. Nikita Grebenkin and Rodrigo Abols are other options as well.
Could they find a way to place Ersson on injured reserve and buy themselves time to make another decision? They could give Kolosov a game or two and go from there. It's entirely possible. A trade wouldn't be immediate unless the Flyers were that desperate to get rid of Ersson. And with his numbers, it's unlikely they'd find a partner to deal with that quickly.
Ersson may not have played his last game in Philadelphia yet, but the odds are continuing to move against him as he approaches free agency this summer. He's been unreliable this year, and the Flyers simply need to find something to do before it's too late.