With last night's regulation loss to the Buffalo Sabres, the Flyers are officially on a losing streak, dropping three straight in regulation and a fourth in overtime. They've been outscored 19-6 in that time, their power play continues to struggle, and their penalty kill has now gone 12 for 21 since New Year's. The Flyers aren't only losing games, they're losing badly.
They can't really afford another blowout loss tonight--especially because it's against their Metropolitan Division rivals, the Pittsburgh Penguins, who are also in the mix for a playoff spot in the congested Eastern Conference. Luckily for the Flyers, the Pens have also found themselves a little down on their luck: they're 6-3-1 in their last 10 games and have dropped three straight. If ever there were an opportunity for a get-right game, this is the one.
Three Storylines
Sam Ersson in net
Last night's injury to Dan Vladar should mean that, barring an absolute heater from the recently recalled Aleksei Kolosov, Sam Ersson will see the bulk of the starts. That is a deeply concerning development. While Ersson has shown flashes throughout his time with the Flyers, he's been abysmal of late, with a .696 SV% in his last start against the Tampa Bay Lightning, and he's only posted a save percentage over .900 in four of his 16 starts this season. All together, he has an .855 SV%, 3.32 GAA, and a minus-10.3 GSAx, per Money Puck--the fourth worst mark in the NHL.
How Ersson plays tonight could determine the direction of the remainder of the Flyers' season, depending on the severity of the injury to Vladar. If Ersson lays another egg, we could be in for a rough stretch of games.
Floundering special teams
We're well aware the Flyers' power play has been a disaster essentially since Claude Giroux left, but the Flyers have been able to fall back on their penalty kill in the interim. Under John Tortorella and Brad Shaw, the "power kill" was an outrageous success during the 2023-24 season, where the Flyers hung around the playoff picture until the very last day of the season on the back of an elite PK unit.
We're a far cry from that now. The Flyers had a top-five penalty kill earlier this season, but now their 79.29 percent efficacy rate is 19th in the NHL. Factor in the power play that doesn't work and a lapse in 5-on-5 scoring, and it's a recipe for a slide down the standings. The Flyers got burned by the Penguins back on Dec. 1, when they allowed three power play goals; they can ill afford a repeat performance.
A four point swing on the line
We've harped on this before, but inter-division matchups matter a whole heck of a lot more when the standings are this close. It's not a stretch to say that, should the Flyers miss the playoffs come April, we can point to this game in particular and say it was the turning point. Another loss, and the streak hits five games; a win means they've managed to take advantage of a Penguins team that's hit a wall recently.