Danny Briere shocked the NHL when he dropped a bomb of an offer sheet on the Ducks on Friday. Leo Carlsson agreed to sign a five-year, $18 million contract. The Ducks will have seven days to match, or they can take four first-round picks, one in each of the next four seasons, from Philadelphia.
It's not just the $18 million that could give Anaheim pause in matching. The deal is heavily frontloaded and structured mostly on bonuses. $85 million of the contract is just in signing bonuses, with $39 million to be paid out within the first year. With the CBA changing in September to prevent contracts from having this much bonus money, this was one heck of an offer from Briere.
And it's a near win-win scenario for the Flyers. Either they force Anaheim to match, paying more money than they would've liked, and causing a ripple effect for their other players. Or they end up with a top-line center who is only 21 and hasn't hit his prime yet.
There is a strong likelihood that the Ducks will match, considering Pat Verbeek opened his mouth and mentioned they will match any offer sent their way for Carlsson. So Anaheim almost has no choice but to match. Reportedly, the two sides were talking just hours before the news of the offer sheet dropped, when the Ducks' offer to Carlsson was between $12-$13 million.
So let's live in a fantasy world where the Ducks say no to matching and decide the picks are worth it. They use those four first-round picks to acquire a similar-caliber player, and the Flyers end up with Carlsson.
All well and good, right?
Adding Leo Carlsson would create a financial challenge for the Flyers
There's no understating that things would drastically change for the Flyers if they landed Carlsson. They would have the game-changing center they've been looking for. But just as it would cause a salary issue for the Ducks, it would also do so for the Flyers.
Allocating $18 million to Carlsson would eat into well over half of the cap space the Flyers have left. And they still have two very important contracts to sign with Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale. This would leave them with just over $11.5M left in cap space. AFP Analytics projects that Zegras could get over $8 million on a five-year deal. He resurrected his career in Philadelphia, and his transition to center down the stretch makes him a valuable player to the Flyers.
Drysdale could get just over $7 million on a six-year deal. The number seems a bit high for the latter, who is probably expected to earn closer to Travis Sanheim, who makes $6.25 million. He established himself as a key cog on defense and showed a step forward in offensive production.
Do the math, though. Anywhere close to those numbers equals more than what the Flyers would have left. They don't have any other players they must sign, and there isn't a real need to make another blockbuster deal. But they will need to ship at least one player out to make the money work.
Rasmus Ristolainen continues to be the likely candidate, as shipping out his $5.1 million salary would be a big help. He shouldn't require a big name or heavy salary in return. The Flyers could get a pick and maybe a prospect in return. It's reportedly what they wanted at the deadline. Is that enough, though?
Another trade candidate could be Owen Tippett, who is making $6.2M for the next six years. The problem is that his 10-team no-trade clause kicked in at the beginning of this offseason. It doesn't make him untradeable. It just means he has more power to veto a potential deal. They could also feel that Noah Cates is more expendable with the latest additions. Losing his $4 million salary would help as well.
Do the Flyers look on the backend again? The only one who would make a true impact, salary-wise, other than Ristolainen would be Cam York, since he makes $5.15 million. He's entering the second year of the deal and doesn't have any trade protection. This could make room for both David Jiricek and Oliver Bonk, who combined would only eat up $2.4 million.
This is all hypothetical, as we will likely have to wait a few more days to see what Anaheim does. If they decide to match, none of this matters, and the Flyers can go on as planned. But if they somehow end up with Carlsson, they will need to shuffle some things around to make everything work.
Knowing Briere, he has already thought of what they will need to do if the latter situation happens. We'll see by next week what the next step is.
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