This year's Calder race has not been as clear cut as in normal years. As we wind down to the end of the NHL season, there are still plenty of questions on who the winner could be.
Many have been divided throughout the season as each of the top players involved in the rookie race has shined in their own ways. It hasn't been one player standing above the rest, making it harder to decide who the winner might be.
The last time the Flyers had a player finish near the top of the Calder race was Shayne Gostisbehere in 2015. He broke the NHL rookie point streak by a defenseman and became the first rookie to record four overtime goals in a season. He would ultimately finish second to Artemi Panarin.
The Flyers have had a player finish as the runner up three times in the franchise history. They have never had a player take the award home. Ron Hextall finished second to Luc Robitaille in 1987 and Bill Barber lost to Steve Vickers in 1973.
When Matvei Michkov joined the Flyers ahead of this season, there was a belief that he could finally be the first player to win the award. And in most years, he probably would have a shot to do so. He's tied with Macklin Celebrini with 20 goals and seven power play goals. He leads all rookies with 32 even-strength points and three overtime goals. And that's despite averaging 16:14 per game, fourth among rookies with at least 40 games played.
But there are two specific names ahead of him that could get in his way.
Dustin Wolf
Some may argue that it's hard for a goaltender to win the Calder. Andrew Raycroft was the last to do so in 2003. In total,12 other goaltenders have been able to claim the award as the best rookie in the league. That may seem like a lot, until you realize that the award has been given out 92 times. So a goaltender has won 13% of the time. Not great odds.
But Dustin Wolf is threatening to be the 14th goaltender to do it. And he has a strong argument. Calgary is one of the worst offensive teams in the league and was expected to be fighting for a top pick and not the playoffs. They average the lowest amount of goals per game and are top-10 in shots against per game.
Somehow, they are clinging to a playoff spot in the West. And that somehow is because of Wolf. The 23-year-old has a .914 SV%, good for eighth in the league and is posting a 2.54 GAA. If you're into the fancy stats, Wolf has saved 19.27 goals above average. That's fourth in the entire league and among names such as Filip Gustavsson and Andrei Vasilevskiy.
He's become the main option in the net for the Flames as Dan Vladar has only appeared in four games since the beginning of February while Wolf has played in 11 games. Back that up to January and Wolf has 21 games to Vladar's seven. The Flames have found what is working for them and that is Wolf.
Playoffs don't count toward the award, but if Wolf can drag Calgary into the postseason, that cannot be ignored. Plus, he's putting up one of the best rookie seasons for a goaltender in NHL history.
Lane Hutson
It's a little bit more common recently for a defenseman to be one of the best rookies in the league. Five blue liners have won the award since 2000 with Moritz Seider being the last to win it in 2022. Defensemen arguably have a harder job than forwards as they have to be more responsible with the play often coming toward them.
While it's not a surprise to see forwards often coming into the league and dominating at an early age, it can be harder for a defenseman to have the same success. But Huston has proven that it may not be as hard as it appears.
Hutson leads all rookies in assists (47), points (51), power play points (22), and averages the most time on ice (22:21). With 17 games left for the Canadiens, Hutson can become the first rookie defenseman since Nick Lindstrom in 1991-92 to reach 60 points. Larry Murphy's 76 points are likely out of reach, but Huston could potentially finish top-five in history among rookie defenseman.
Most of Hutson's advanced numbers have the Canadiens carrying play when he is on the ice. The Canadiens are 19th in the league, giving up 3.28 goals per game and allowing 29.1 shots per game. The fact that Hutson is even in the conversation shows the historical pace he is on.
One argument against him could be that he only has four goals. But you can't ignore everything else that Hutson is doing.
Aside from Wolf and Hutson, Celebrini is also in the conversation and by most odds, is the favorite to win. Despite missing 12 games due to injury, he is tied for first in goals, second in points (49), and leads with 0.89 points per game. Not playing in all 82 games isn't necessarily a determining factor when it comes to winning or losing the award.
But it's hard to look past what both Hutson and Wolf are doing and say Celebrini deserves it more than them. Michkov is also on par with almost every offensive stat compared to Celebrini. His biggest advantages come in points per game and minutes played. Otherwise, the two are close. Hence why the latter two could be tougher competition to overcome.
There's still time for this race to shake out and it will likely come down to the end for a decision to be made.