We've have made it to the final game of the season. It will be the fifth straight year without the playoffs, tying a franchise record. The Flyers having been hanging around the bottom of the standings for quite some time. They enter the last game of the season with the sixth-worst record in the league.
They are tied in points with the Bruins and Kraken, though both teams have already played their final game. However, they still play a role in how the Flyers can finish the season. Right now, Philadelphia has a .469 win percentage. The Kraken and Bruins are both at .463.
That's where the Flyers final game of the season comes into play. The outcome of this game can drastically shift their possible lottery odds. What we do know before the game against the Sabres is that the Flyers will be drafting in the top-10. Teams cannot drop more than two places in the lottery.
One of the other reasons that their position can change so drastically is that Buffalo is right above them in the standings, with 77 points. The Flyers currently have 76. So a win by Philadelphia would jump the Sabres in the standings.
As it stands, the Flyers can technically finish as high as the first pick. But they could drop to as low as ninth depending on how their final game goes. Before we get into each scenario, here is a current look at their odds.
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4th | 9.5% | 9.5% | 0.3% | 15.4% | 44.6% | 20.8% | |||
6th | 7.5% | 7.7% | 0.3% | 34.1% | 41.4% | 9.1% | |||
7th | 6.5% | 6.7% | 0.2% | 44.4% | 36.5% | 5.6% |
So there are three scenarios for how the Flyers game can end and how it will affect them in the standings.
The first, and the one most people are hoping the Flyers do not do, is beat the Sabres in regulation. If they do so, they would have the seventh-best odds in the draft. And if the balls do not fall their way, they could drop to as low as ninth. That could significantly change the type of player they would be able to draft. They would still be getting a top-10 player, but with the situation the Flyers are in, they need immediate impact players.
The outcome that wouldn't change the Flyers odds would be if the game goes past regulation. It doesn't matter if they win or lose in either overtime or a shootout. They would remain with the sixth-best odds and could drop as low as eight. Still not the most ideal scenario for most.
That brings us to the scenario that plenty of people are hoping for. If the Flyers lose in regulation, they would drop below both the Kraken and Bruins in the standings due to fewer regulation wins. That would give them the fourth-best odds with a slightly bigger possibility of jumping into the top two if all goes well. Even if they remain where they are, that boosts their odds of grabbing a player who could step right into the NHL lineup.
Depending on which draft rankings you're looking at, that could give the Flyers a player like Jake O’Brien, Porter Martone, Caleb Desnoyers, or Anton Frondell.
You never know what could happen in the NHL Draft. A player could slip that some had projected higher, or someone with a lower ranking could shoot up. Jett Luchanko is a perfect example of the latter and the Flyers grabbed him with the 13th selection. Crazy things can also happen in the Draft Lottery itself. The Sharks currently have the best odds to draft first overall at 25.5 percent.
No matter what happens this evening, the Flyers hope this is the last time they will be in this conversation.