Where are the Flyers likely to draft with their first pick?

Winning the draft lottery is an unlikely scenario, but where could the Flyers end up selecting with their early first round pick?
Mar 31, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; The Philadelphia Flyers and the Nashville Predators fight in the third period at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
Mar 31, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; The Philadelphia Flyers and the Nashville Predators fight in the third period at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images | Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

While the Flyers have been winning games with Brad Shaw at the helm, they will still find themselves toward the bottom of the standings when all is said and done. With six games remaining, that is a possible 12 points on the line.

In the extremely unlikely scenario that Philadelphia wins all of those games, they would finish with 82 points. And that is the reason they have not officially been eliminated yet. The Montreal Canadiens hold the second wild card spot in the East and currently have 79 points. There are four other teams ahead of the Flyers in the race, though only three of those teams have a real shot.

The fact of the matter is that Philadelphia will find its season ending after game 82 once again. And for those who are more interested in the team losing and getting a better draft selection, this one is for you.

Based on points percentage, the Flyers have the sixth-easiest remaining schedule in the league. They aren't considered to be facing any tough opponents in their final six games, only one of two teams with that label. As of now, only Ottawa and Montreal are in a playoff spot. They will also face the Rangers, Islanders, Blue Jackets, and Sabres.

Buffalo is the only team that is currently below the Flyers in the standings, though they only have one fewer point and two games in hand. So there is a potential for Philadelphia to drop further in the standings. It's not out of the realm of possibility for them to finish with a top-five pick. Boston has 69 points and seven games remaining. Seattle has 68 points and seven games remaining.

Tankathon has the Flyers with a 41.4% chance at finishing with the seventh pick in the draft. Their next best odds are 34.1%, which would have them picking sixth. There is a small chance they could drop back to eighth, but those odds are at 9.1%.

But what are the odds the Flyers could get the lottery balls to fall in their favor? They did so in 2017, jumping from 13th to second, where they drafted Nolan Patrick. The odds for them to make a large leap are slim, but not impossible. The Sharks are likely to end up with the top pick again if there are no surprises.

The Flyers have a 7.5% chance to win the lottery and a 7.7% chance to end up with the second overall selection. And third overall is the most unlikely scenario at 0.2%. The Flyers cannot finish fourth or fifth at this time.

So as it stands, the Flyers are likely to pick either sixth or seventh. They drafted Matvei Michkov with the seventh overall pick in 2023. Ivan Provorov was taken with the same pick in 2017. You'd have to go back to 1991 and Peter Forsberg to find out the last time they drafted with the sixth overall pick.

What makes things tougher for the Flyers and those who want them to keep losing is that they are facing teams in similar situations. They will almost all be out of the playoffs in a matter of days. Most are likely to be eliminated before the Flyers face them. While players aren't going to intentionally tank, there won't be much to play for in the remaining few games.

With Shaw under evaluation, these last few games will be important in the team's decision of where they may go with their next head coach. There are still some things to be decided, but as of this article, the Flyers may find themselves just outside a top-five pick.

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