Why the writing is on the wall for the Flyers to trade for Elias Pettersson

The Flyers’ recent struggles have put a severe dent in their playoff hopes this season, re-emphasizing Danny Briere’s mandate that the team won’t sacrifice the future to try and win (i.e., just scrape by to get into the postseason) now. As for the rumor mill, the Flyers have been connected to Elias Pettersson of the Canucks for a while. And when you sketch it out, it has all the makings of a logical move from the perspective of the Flyers organization. But does a “logical move” equal “the right move”? That’s to be determined at some point well down the road after the dust settles.

First off, Vancouver is awful. Their problems all seemed to stem from the feud between Pettersson and former Canuck J.T. Miller, and it has since spiraled. Since that time, the team traded Miller, fired Rick Tocchet (more on Tocchet later), and sank to the bottom of the league standings this year, while also trading more players, including team captain Quinn Hughes. They are clearly in rebuild mode, and offloading a player and a contract such as Pettersson’s should be a top priority.

The Flyers could put together quite an argument in favor of trading for the Canucks' Elias Pettersson

The elephant in the room is Pettersson’s full no-movement clause (NMC), a sweetener that many teams like to tie their hands with these days. It theoretically shouldn’t be much of an issue, as Pettersson can simply waive it to get out of Vancouver, but it remains to be seen how much he can tolerate in his current situation before he gives his consent. 

Thanks to the assets at their disposal, the Flyers could easily put together a package enticing enough for Vancouver to accept, but the Flyers and the Canucks could have to do a bit of a co-sell job to get Pettersson to waive his NMC. Perhaps the presence of Rick Tocchet is enough of a difference-maker to get the deal done?

Never mind the fact that it is highly unlikely in today’s hockey climate that Rick Tocchet will still be the Flyers’ head coach in 2032 when Pettersson’s contract expires. Philadelphia could well be the best fit for Pettersson in this moment simply because of Tocchet’s familiarity with him. It’s worth noting that Pettersson has produced at exactly a point per game under Tocchet’s coaching (182 points in 182 games), whereas he sits at about 0.92 points per game under anyone else.

Yes, this is his second consecutive “down year,” but it’s the kind of prime buying opportunity that teams have to look for. It seems to have worked in the case of Trevor Zegras, so Briere and company may view this situation similarly.

This has all the makings of a “big splash” that the Flyers will try to sell their long-suffering fanbase on. If they go this route sometime before the trade deadline this year, you can be sure that they’ll put out any or all of the following:

We didn’t think that this year’s free agent market was very deep, and this was our way of getting ahead of the curve.

By adding a talented player like this now, it will help him adjust to our core group so that they can come into next season with those experiences and be ready to hit the ground running.

With the salary cap increasing, we thought this was a good move to get cost certainty with an established young player who can help our team for years to come.

And none of this is actually wrong, as long as Pettersson can get back to being close to the player he was two or three seasons ago. Teams have to be careful not to let other clubs off the hook by taking on their problems and creating their own headaches, but this could very well be one of the only impact moves the Flyers can make over the next calendar year that won’t cost them too many assets or way too much money.

It will definitely be a seller’s market at this year’s deadline, but Pettersson is a pretty unattractive piece for a team in “win now” mode, given his length of contract and status as a reclamation project. Meanwhile, the Flyers are right in the wheelhouse of being the kind of team where it would make sense to take a run at him. If he clicks immediately, great. If not, that’s fine, we weren’t ‘playoffs or bust’ this year anyway, and we have time to get him going.

The Flyers are not in a position to rent a pending UFA like Alex Tuch. Besides, Tuch’s Sabres are one of several surprising teams in playoff contention who will likely shift into buyer mode to compete for immediate help. If the Flyers are hoping to add anyone, it has to be someone with term and/or lots of money left on their deal from a non-contending team. They could also revisit this at the draft or some other time over the summer and sell that as their big move. So just because it doesn’t happen before the March 6th trade deadline doesn’t mean it can’t happen eventually. Stay tuned for that.

Even though a chunk of the fanbase might not be on board, particularly the perpetually online contingent that gets mad at everything, Elias Pettersson to the Flyers just makes a lot of sense when you add up team needs, expectation timelines, and the associated risk/reward. Pettersson could be a key part of the team that eventually gets the Flyers back to the playoffs. Or he could end up never getting back to the player he was. Only one way to find out.