Philadelphia Flyers Season Reviews: Jakub Voracek

Jakub Voracek had a nightmarish season last year for the Philadelphia Flyers, but a deeper look shows no reason to panic

You don’t need me to tell you Philadelphia Flyers star winger Jakub Voracek had a bad year. After scoring 81 points in 82 games the previous season, Voracek slumped to 55 points in 73 games. This constituted Voracek’s worst season in Philadelphia since his first season 5 years ago, when he was still only 22 years old.

Aside from the simple production drop, Voracek’s struggles last season can be seen a few different ways. The best place to start is with Voracek’s on-ice 5v5 shot effects. This is usually the part of the game Voracek excels. Last year he suffered a real drop in this regard.

This chart shows a significant drop off in his on-ice shot generation (Relative Corsi For per 60) and on-ice effect on team shot differential. He’s still comfortably in the positive in both categories, but it is way off the standard that earned him a new contract worth $8 million per year.

Pretty much the same story holds for his 5v5 goal performance.

We see a similar drop off in his 5v5 points per minute rate, while his team relative on-ice ‘expected’ goal scoring rate dropped less steeply. Again, the stats show Voracek was still a pretty good player for the Flyers this year, but we now expect 70+ points from him, not 55.

Things weren’t any better for Jake on the powerplay. His power play goal total went from 8-8-11 the previous 3 seasons, to only 1 last year. For what it’s worth, he did accumulate 22 power play assists last year, tying his career high.

Much of that paltry goal scoring on the power play is probably just bad luck. Going back 3 seasons again, his 5v4 shooting percentage has 15.4%, 10.7%, and 15.8%. Last season it was 1.4%. Voracek was getting the looks last year, but just couldn’t finish. Even if you think he somehow forgot how to shoot overnight, that 1.4% is clearly an anomaly that is surely not going to repeat.

Up and down the numbers, it was just a season Voracek would rather forget. Injury was added to this insult as well, as Voracek’s iron-man game streak ended and he missed his first games in 5 years as a Philadelphia Flyer. After returning from injury, Voracek wasn’t 100% in the spring.

It didn’t have to be this way. A look at Voracek’s performance as the season progressed shows a season that just got away from him.

In terms of his game-by-game on-ice shot differential, the graph shows a very solid performance by Voracek last season. This is a stark contrast to the ice-cold start Voracek had in terms of actual goals and points. In his first 15 games of the season, Voracek had 0 goals and 5 assists. At the time, Voracek pointed the finger at himself, remarking that: “It’s getting ridiculous. I’m a professional. I’ve just got to find a way to produce.”

That may have been an unduly harsh self-criticism. After the season, Voracek even admitted to fighting some confidence issues during the season when the puck refused to go in. Putting aside points and focusing on shots however, it wasn’t really until his injury in February that his shot generation lapsed (as shown above).

Given the way Voracek’s year progressed, it might be the best idea to just forget about his performance last season. Between the bad luck shooting on the power play, points that didn’t match his shot generation, and injuries severely slowing him down in March and April, it almost doesn’t seem fair to Jake.

Of course no one is going to shed a tear for Jake when he officially begins playing under his new, monster contract this season. Fortunately Philadelphia Flyers fans should expect to see a more productive Voracek. his underlying shot statistics are strong, and he is dropping pounds again this summer (and presuming he’s not putting them back on partying at Springsteen concerts).

Related Story: Voracek Weight Watchers

In my opinion, Philadelphia Flyers fans don’t need to worry about Jake. Last season was a tough one for him, but it is unlikely to repeat itself. If he starts the season in good physical condition and avoids another unlucky beginning, the points will come. At that point, don’t be surprised to see Voracek closer to 80 points next season than the 55 he scored last year.