Scoring 2021-22 Flyers Bold Predictions
The Flyers are great, they allow the public to indulge in wild unfounded optimism and rampant speculation. Year in an year out, no matter how much good will is spent or tradition is destoyed the fans always come back to let the world that this is this year. Maybe not this year.
It is hard not to be bearish on everything right now, the Flyers included, but before last season there was still some hope an optimism regarding the team. They took risks in efforts to take the team to the next level. Unfortunately, these were gambles with limited upsides and huge downsides, big contracts, and terrible asset management. This made predicitons less fun than normal , and was more like a slow motion car wreck. These gambles coupled with injuries and strange roster decisions doomed the Flyers to a 61 point season.
2021: 9 -11 (45%) 2022:14–6 (70%) Total: 55-41-4: 57%
Flyers Fail to Make the Playoffs (WIN)
The Flyers made this easy, as I was skeptical of the Ellis trade initially because of his availability and of the loss of Phil Myers. Once Ryan Ellis was out of the lineup the Flyers stopped looking competitive. Justin Braun and Ivan Provorov were reunited with even worse results than 2021.
Watch out fans, Fletcher has brought back the “elite” Braun (his words, not mine) to ruin another year of Provorov’s prime. The Flyers had a lot of injuries to key players, coaching changes and lacked any continuity, which makes it hard to implement any kind of strategy or system. This year was a disorganized mess and a step back, netting the Flyers a meager 61 points.
The Powerplay Finishes in The Top 10 (Loss)
Since the Flyers fired Joe Mullen, the power play has looked worse each year. Apparently after a decade of Giroux with the puck on the half boards the league had caught on. There is a saying that if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. While Giroux is an all-time great, something was very broken on the power play. The Flyers finished 32nd, that is last.
I had hoped that new blood would alter the scheme in a positive way. I guess not. There may have been nothing more dispiriting to watch last season than the Flyers on the powerplay and one has to wonder how many more points they could have collected if the unit was average.
Flyers Sell at the Deadline (Win?)
The Flyers did sell, so it is technically a win, parting with Brassard, Braun and Giroux. The return for Giroux was underwhelming so it is hard to consider that “winning”. I had thought that Fletcher had been so gentle with the Panthers with the intentions of having Giroux return, in some sort of unspoken arrangement. It turns out the return for Giroux, and the other pieces he moved was the best Fletcher’s negotiating skills could muster. All in all not the jump start that the franchise should get for parting with an all-time great.
At Least One Flyers Coach or Executive will be Fired Before the Start of the 2022 Season (WIN,WIN,WIN)
The Flyers sacked Alain Vigneault and Michel Therrien on December 6th. Mike Yeo was able to finish the season before being let go. That is a trifecta. Thought to be unfair by some, these firings seem more like a good start. With a full scale house cleaning in the coaches quarters, Flyers management are running out of fire walls.
Nate Thompson “The Sequel” will be Worse than the Original (WIN)
Thompson’s presence in the lineup and on the roster was a travesty on a variety of fronts, making the sequel unquestionably worse than the original. While Thompson managed three points in this tour with the Flyers, two more than his previous stint, he was also -15 as opposed to a +1. Worse he took valuable playing time away from players like Morgan Frost, and took up a roster spot that led to players like Gerald Mayhew and Aube Kubel to be lost on waiver claims.
Thompson is a good illustration of just how bad the Flyers mismanaged their roster. They seem unable to understad who has value and who doesn’t. Rather than expose Thompson to waivers, they lose a young winger in Aube-Kubel who finds a regular spot on a championship team. Just be clear, the Stanley Cup Champions found a spot for NAK on their fourth line, but I guess the Flyers are so talent laiden that they couldn’t. It is unreal.
Voracek Collects More Points than Cam Atkinson (Win)
Voracek led Columbus with 62 points, while Atkinson only collected 50 for the Flyers. Given their roles, and the talent difference between the teams, I was actually surprised it was this close. Voracek substantially underperformed what I had expected and parting with him may have been a stroke of genius move by Fletcher to exchange Jake for the energetic Cam Atkinson.
Atkinson Scores more goals than Voracek (Win)
Given their playing styles this was another easy prediction, but both players fell short of my expectations, as I thought Voracek would score more than 10 goals. He finished with six. I thought Atkinson would surpass 30 but fell short. Both players were casualties of their respective teams playing poorly.
Ristolainen Puts up Career Best +/- and Corsi (Loss)
The Flyers, and I, hoped Ristolainen would blossom in Philadelphia. Instead of a rose, it was more like a dandelion, a colorful start that eventual fades into the rest of the gray. Ristolainen was better than most of the pundits thought he would be, though not nearly good enough to justify the price paid in trade (or his new contract).
Ristolainen would end the season at -9, tied for the second best mark of his career. He would finish with his 3rd best 5V5 corsi of his career and tie his career best mark (.2) for relative 5V5 corsi. Everyone would like to see more from Ristolainen who looks to have the tools to dominate, but fails to do so.
Cam Atkinson Leads the Team in Shots (Loss)
Cam Atkinson did not lead the team in shots, as his 215 trailed Travis Konecny’s 220. It is fair to point out that TK played in 79 games to Atkinson’s 73 and had Atkinson played in all the games he may have led the team. In either case Atkinson was the shoot first player that the Flyers had lacked, and we should look for him to continue to shot first and ask questions later.
Oskar Lindblom Scores At Least 40 Points (Loss)
Oskar Lindblom managed to score only 12 goals, all at even strength, and totaled only 26 points this past season. He only seemed in sync for a handful of stretches this season. Lindblom was still a productive player, though not at the level he was before his cancer diagnosis. He was a cap casualty and will be donning a San Jose Sharks jersey next year.
Ivan Provorov Collects more Points than any Other Flyers’ Defensemen (Win)
This was a very much dependent on where Provorov fit in relative to other Flyers’ defensemen, and how he was going to be used. Even if had Ellis been healthy, Provorov is the superior player. He benefitted from a healthy dose of powerplay time, that he had to split with the ineffective Keith Yandle. Despite the reliance on Yandle, Provorov was tied for the lead amongst Flyers’ defensemen with 31 points.
Travis Konecny does not Score 30 goals. (WIN)
TK led the team in shots but was only able to capture 16 goals. It could be he just needs a little bit of success to really get rolling, but his inability to score regularly last season frustrated the fans as well as the player. TK did step up his game, leading the team in assists and points. Despite a bad season overall, his growth as a playmaker was certainly a positive development.
Joel Farabee does not lead the team in Goals (WIN)
The Flyers winger saw his time limited by injury last season. Despite missing 19 games, Farabee finished fourth on the team with 17 goals. Had he remained healthy he may have grabbed eight more goals to surpass JVR’s 24 tallies. Much like Lindblom, Farabee seemed out of sorts for long periods this season. I blame this coaching upheaval that didn’t help the younger players maximize their potential.
Kevin Hayes will Struggle (WIN)
Hayes was able to produce offensively for the Flyers, scoring 31 points in 48 games, but had a career low shooting percentage and earned a -20 plus/minus. Hayes was dominated in the face off circle, losing 57% of his draws. In the past he has been a capable defender, particularly in the neutral zone. But this season he spent long stretches in his own end and seemed disinterested in defending. Hayes was trying to cope with the loss of his brother and returning from injury, so 2021 was likely not the best version of Hayes.
Carter Hart Rebounds Statistically (Win)
Even if the Flyers did not help him much, Carter Hart was able to rebound from a subpar 2021 to enjoy an average season despite some of the worst team defense in the league. Hart saw his GAA drop by half a goal and his save percentage rise to over .900 on a team with awful defense. Hart should be encouraged by his play last season and Tortorella will make sure the team plays harder in front of him.
Wade Allison Will Finish 6th or Higher in Goals (Loss)
Allison appeared in a single game for the Flyers this season after grabbing four goals in 14 games with the big club in 20-21. He was injured early in the season and seemed to be the forgotten man in terms of making the lineup, but at least we had Zac MacEwen. Allison is a restricted free agent, and with the lack of cap space I fear he may not be re-signed. This was my most disappointing miss of last season’s predicitions.
Felix Sandstrom Will Make His NHL Debut (Win)
Sandstrom played five games for the club with a GAA of 3.23 and .910 save percentage. He looked big an athletic in his five appearences. He did not earn a win, but only gave up more than three goals one time. I hope that Sandstrom is back in the goaltending picture this year.
Morgan Frost Plays More Than Fifty Games (WIN)
The Flyers lost centers Sean Couturier and Kevin Hayes to injury for long periods of the season which allowed Frost to suit up for 55 games. While I had hoped for a situating where they could not keep Frost out of the lineup, but in truth it seemed that he backed into the spot, wilting from competition from the likes of Nate Thompson and Max Willman.
Cam York Plays More NHL games than Egor Zamula…(WIN)
The Flyers suited up Cameron York for 30 games, while Zamula suited up for only 10. York is one of Fletcher’s guys, so he got a leg up. Meanwhile, Hextall’s players are being pruned from this roster.
… But Probably Should not Have (Win)
I am inclined to give myself the win. Zamula had 29 points in 58 games, a +2, in the AHL, while York had 12 points in 34 games, a -8 in the AHL. The media has dusted off the hype machine for York who amassed 10 points in 30 NHL games.
York was not at all impressive in my view. While there should be optimism for the youngster, his game in the defensive end is not great. He is not dynamic offensively like Gostisbehere. York also had the benefit of spending much of his ice time with Ivan Provorov. Conversely, Zamula spent time with Keith Yandle and Kevin Connauton, who are arguably the worst defenders on the team.
In the final analysis I expected the Flyers to struggle, and most of my predictions reflected that. I missed the majority of predicitions when expecting players to over achieve. It is shocking that the team did not use a dead season to get more playing time for their prospects. Did we really need to make sure Martin Jones got enough starts?
Was there still more we needed to find out from Max Willman and Patrick Brown? Was a few more games really going to make Nick Seeler a viable NHL player? The Flyers squandered so many opportunites in 2021-2022, we can only hope 2022-2023 is better.