NHL Draft Lottery: Odds and Flyers Potential Options

NHL Draft Lottery
NHL Draft Lottery / Brad White/GettyImages

While some teams continue to fight for a chance to lift the Stanley Cup, other teams will be hoping for a chance to draft a generational talent this summer. The NHL Draft lottery is set for May 7 and will determine the draft order for the first 16 picks.

Before getting into the current odds and where the Flyers sit, there are a few ground rules. Implementing a rule before the 2022 selection, a team cannot win the lottery more than two times in five years. A team can also only move up a maximum of 10 spots, meaning that only the top 11 teams are in the running for the top pick. The other five teams can pick as high as second and as low as sixth. The teams who cannot win the first overall pick are the Flyers, Wild, Penguins, Red Wings, and Blues.

As one of the final teams eliminated, the Flyers missed out on a chance to truly win the lottery. Finishing 21st in the league, Philadelphia was three points ahead of Buffalo, the 11th-worst team in the league.

NHL Draft Lottery Odds

The following teams will be a part of the selection show next week. Their odds of winning the lottery are beside them. Not that anyone could forget the stories that have come out recently, but the Arizona Coyotes are now referred to as Utah with their relocation.

  1. San Jose Sharks (18.5%)
  2. Chicago Blackhawks (13.5%)
  3. Anaheim Ducks (11.5%)
  4. Columbus Blue Jackets (9.5%)
  5. Montreal Canadiens (8.5%)
  6. Utah (7.5%)
  7. Ottawa Senators (6.5%)
  8. Seattle Kraken (6%)
  9. Calgary Flames (5%)
  10. New Jersey Devils (3.5%)
  11. Buffalo Sabres (3%)
  12. Philadelphia Flyers (2.5%)
  13. Minnesota Wild (2%)
  14. *Pittsburgh Penguins (1.5%)
  15. Detroit Red Wings (0.5%)
  16. St. Louis Blues (0.5%)

* As part of the Erik Karlsson trade, the Penguins will transfer either their 2024 or 2025 first-pick to the Sharks. If the 2024 pick ends up in the top-10, Pittsburgh will have the option to send San Jose the 2025 pick instead.

The Flyers' odds to move up in the draft are slim, so they are expected to draft with the 12th overall pick. The organization has never drafted in that position before. They have had the 11th pick twice, drafting Jeff Carter in 2003 and Samuel Morin in 2013. Even without jumping into the top two of the draft, Philadelphia has a chance to draft an impact player nonetheless. Thanks to the Claude Giroux trade, the Flyers will also have the Panthers' first-round pick. They are awaiting the winner of the Leafs and Bruins series. It will be a late-round pick, but you can never have enough picks in the draft.

So who could be available to the Flyers if they end up with the 12th overall selection? That depends on which draft rankings you look at. If you look at Tankathon, a player like Carter Yakemchuk could be available. The right-handed defenseman has spent the last three seasons with the Calgary Hitman in the WHL. He posted a career-high 30 goals and 71 points in 66 games. He had the most goals amongst WHL defensemen and had the most points amongst all draft-eligible defensemen in the league. Multiple outlets have him ranked in a similar spot.

Recruit Scouting ranks Michael Hage as the 12th-best player in the draft. A center for the Chicago Steel in the USHL, Hage is committed to the University of Michigan for the 2025-26 season. He broke out in his second season with the Steel, posting 33 goals and 75 points in 54 games. Most other places have him ranked in the mid-20s, so drafting him that high might end up being a stretch. But he has caught the eyes of scouts with his performance this season.

Cole Eiserman is a name that shows up in multiple rankings around the spot the Flyers could draft. NHL Central Scouting has him as the 12th-best North American skater in the upcoming draft. The left-side forward is committed to Boston University, but not until the 2025-26 season. Eiserman has played with the U.S. National Team in the NTDP, as well as in the USHL with the USNTDP Juniors squad. Eiserman is coming off a 55-goal, 86-point season with the National Team. He also posted 25 goals and 34 points in the USHL. Eiserman added six goals and eight points at the World Juniors.

There are countless other sites and people you could go to regarding rankings. And you will certainly find many names that could be available to the Flyers. The fact that there are more than a few names there means Philadelphia should be in a good position no matter who they select.

It's not impossible that the Flyers could make a big jump, it's happened before. We'll find out next week where they will select in the 2024 NHL Draft.